For the first time this week, Xander Schauffele does not hold the solo lead after the conclusion of a round at Valhalla. Currently, Schauffele and Collin Morikawa are tied for first at 15-under as we head into Sunday.
Here are my best PGA Championship picks ahead of tomorrow's final round.
Best PGA Championship Round 4 picks
Scottie Scheffler Over Rory McIlroy in Round 4 (-140)
This play is not a fade of Rory McIlroy, but rather a buy-low opportunity on the best golfer in the world. Scottie Scheffler plummeted down the leaderboard on Saturday with a 2-over 73 in what was the worst round I have seen him play in quite some time.
I don’t see that happening two days in a row. Rory hasn’t been playing his best golf, either, but Scheffler has arguably been the better player despite the differential on the leaderboard.
This week, Scottie ranks higher than McIlroy in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, driving accuracy, and scrambling percentage. Scheffler shouldn’t be a mere -140 against anyone in the world in a head-to-head matchup.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler Over Rory McIlroy in Round 4 (-140 at FanDuel)
Harris English to finish in the Top 10 (+150)
Harris English enters Round 4 at T10, and he is playing well enough to hold onto this position. English’s putter has been on fire as he ranks third among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to cool down anytime soon.
English entered this week in good form with six Top-20 finishes over his past 14 tournaments, with only one missed cut over that stretch. It makes sense that this success has continued at Valhalla this week, given that it is a bomber’s course and English has gained distance over the field in 15 consecutive tournaments prior to this week.
When you add a red-hot putter into that equation, you get his current T10 position. At +150, it’s worth a wager that he holds the spot on Sunday.
Pick: Harris English to finish in the Top 10 (+150 at FanDuel)
Justin Thomas Under 68.5 (+105)
Justin Thomas enters Round 4 at T10 after firing a 4-under 67 on Saturday. He has shot a 67 in back-to-back days, and I expect him to make it three straight on Sunday.
JT has been a ball-striking machine this week, ranking in the Top 15 among the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, greens in regulation percentage and driving distance. The only thing holding him back thus far is the flat stick, but even that started to improve in Round 3.
Given this ball striking (and slowly improving putting performance), I don’t see a reason why he won’t shoot a 67 for the third straight day. Yes, JT has not had the best couple of years on Tour, but he is turning his game back around and is a two-time PGA Championship winner who is more than capable of competing against this field.
Pick: Justin Thomas Under 68.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
Latest PGA Championship odds
- Xander Schauffele (+250)
- Collin Morikawa (+260)
- Bryson DeChambeau (+650)
- Sahith Theegala (+650)
- Viktor Hovland (+750)
- Shane Lowry (1,200)
- Robert MacIntyre (+4,000)
- Justin Rose (+4,000)
- Dean Burmester (+6,500)
- Justin Thomas (+8,000)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
