The Los Angeles Dodgers have won 11 of their last 13 games and look to stay hot as they welcome back Walker Buehler to the rotation after a nearly two-year absence. He’ll make his return against a struggling Miami Marlins team on May 6.
My Marlins vs. Dodgers predictions touch on the unlikelihood of Miami hurler Roddery Munoz continuing his strong pitching, and to fade him I've chosen to target the Over of Will Smith's total bases market in my best MLB picks.
Marlins vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Will Smith Over 1.5 total bases (+145 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Miami Marlins believe they've found something with Roddery Munoz. Early returns have been positive — the rookie became just the second hurler in Marlins history with at least 13 Ks and a WHIP under 0.75 across their first two starts, joining Jose Fernandez.
That’s an impressive start to one’s career, but it’s fair to question whether or not the effectiveness will continue. Munoz sports a career 5.47 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 223 2/3 innings in the Minors and was blasted for an 0-3 record, 8.62 ERA, and 1.79 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings at AAA this year before “earning” the call-up.
Those are concerning numbers, and it’s hard to envision the 24-year-old stymying the fearsome Los Angeles Dodgers. The projection systems are pretty bearish on his odds, and the least-friendly (THE BAT) calls for a 5.02 ERA and 4.78 FIP. He’s posted an unimpressive 96 Pitching+ through two starts, which undermines his surface-level statistics and ranks 149th out of 188 starting pitchers.
Things could come crashing to a halt as soon as Monday night against a lethal Dodgers lineup that smacks right-handed pitching with a league-best wRC+ (136) and wOBA (.360). Isolating for the last 15 days, those numbers become even more impressive (165 wRC+ and .402 wOBA).
I’m looking to fade Munoz, and there are a few avenues to do so. LA’s team total is set at 4.5, but you’re required to pay a hefty tax on the Over. An alternative run line of 5.5 is decently appealing.
My favorite option on the board is catcher Will Smith to record 2+ total bases at +145 odds. He’s been hot at the dish, recording a hit in eight straight appearances to boost his OPS to .930. The slugger received a day off on Sunday, and that’s been a good sign lately, as he’s homered in each of his last two games after a day of rest.
Smith has recorded two or more total bases in six of his last eight starts, and I like his odds of staying hot against a hittable pitcher who's projected to come back to earth.
Marlins vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Will Smith Over 1.5 total bases
Roddery Munoz Over 4.5 hits allowed
Dodgers -1.5
Walker Buehler Over 1.5 walks allowed
Munoz posted a 1.79 WHIP at AAA this year and has sported a WHIP above 1.50 at each of his last four Minor League stops, so I’m happy to fade him here against the MLB’s best lineup against right-handed pitching. L.A. has the league’s best run differential (+63) while Miami has the second-worst (-68), so this is a mismatch.
Lastly, Dodgers star Walker Buehler returns to the mound after a 22-month hiatus. It’s difficult to know exactly what to expect after such a long layoff, but Buehler struggled with his command in six rehab starts and posted an unseemly 1.62 WHIP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Marlins vs Dodgers odds
Marlins vs Dodgers live odds
Marlins vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Miami +1.5 (+105) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-125)
- Moneyline: Miami +205 | Los Angeles -250
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Marlins vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers are hot after winning 11 of their last 13 games, including a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves over the weekend.
- Miami has covered the run line in just 33 of its last 82 games, whereas L.A. has covered the run line in 74 of its last 131 games.
- Both teams have been profitable to the Over this season. Miami is 20-16 O/U, while L.A. is 19-16 O/U.
Marlins vs Dodgers trend
Will Smith has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Dodgers
Marlins vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSFL, SNLA |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Roddery Munoz (1-0, 2.45 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (0-2, 4.91 ERA) |
Marlins vs Dodgers latest injuries
Marlins vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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