There has been a little separation atop the boards in both the AL and NL Cy Young races.
However, Pablo Lopez has seen his MLB odds plummet after consecutive disastrous starts.
Let's see how the Cy Young odds are shaking out in both leagues.
Odds to win AL Cy Young award 2024
| Player |  |
 |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tarik Skubal |
+175 | +270 | +225 | +175 |
 Corbin Burnes |
+400 | +450 | +425 | +400 |
 Tanner Houck |
+1,000 | +1,100 | +1,100 | +1,000 |
 Luis Castillo |
+1,100 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
 Cole Ragans |
+1,300 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,000 |
| Seth Lugo |
+1,600 | +1,700 | +1,600 | +1,200 |
| Logan Gilbert |
+1,800 | +1,600 | +1,600 | +1,500 |
 Joe Ryan |
+2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +3,000 |
| Jack Flaherty |
OTB | +2,500 | +2,500 | +6,000 |
| George Kirby |
+3,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +2,200 |
| Pablo Lopez |
+3,000 | +6,000 | +6,000 | +1,800 |
 Carlos Rodon |
+3,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Kutter Crawford |
+3,500 | +8,000 | +8,000 | +3,000 |
 Jose Berrios |
+3,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +3,500 |
 Garrett Crochet |
+3,500 | +4,000 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
| Luis Gil |
+4,000 | +4,000 | +4,000 | +4,000 |
 Tanner Bibee |
+4,000 | +15,000 | +12,500 | +8,000 |
 Framber Valdez |
+4,000 | +8,000 | +8,000 | +5,000 |
| Cristian Javier |
+4,000 | OTB | +4,000 | +3,500 |
 Nathan Eovaldi |
+4,000 | +12,000 | +12,500 | +5,500 |
Odds as of 5-28-24.
AL Cy Young odds analysis
5/28/2024: A week ago, Minnesota Twins right-hander Pablo Lopez was trading as short as 10/1 to win AL Cy Young and he's since cratered at most books, available as long as 60/1 today. Part of this is catching up, and part of it is things have gotten worse. Lopez has allowed 13 earned runs over his last two starts (9 2/3 innings) while allowing four home runs. His ERA has jumped from 3.93 to 5.25. Now, he had his share of blow-ups even before these two catastrophically bad outings, but he's also posted four starts with one run allowed. He's the definition of boom or bust.
It's funny, his 27.7% strikeout rate isn't all that far behind last season's 29.2% mark, which seemed like an outlier anyway as a career-high, and his 4% walk rate is the best he's ever posted. However, he's allowing home runs at the most frequent rate of his career and he's getting leveled by hard contact. He may have dug himself into too deep a hole, especially with how well Tarik Skubal and Corbin Burnes continue to pitch, but if he can do a better job of keeping the ball in the park and reduce the amount of hard contact, he can fix a broken season.
Previous AL Cy Young action
5/21/2024: There's very little to note on the AL Cy Young side this week. Tarik Skubal continues to cruise and Corbin Burnes is coming off one of his most dominant outings as a member of the Baltimore Orioles.
5/14/2024: When Tarik Skubal debuted in 2020, he walked north of three batters per nine innings and 8.2% of everyone he faced. Both numbers have dropped every season and his walk rate rests at a career-best 4.2% through eight starts. While that is a relatively small sample, Skubal's trend of getting sharper has been several years in the making and his 2.02 ERA doesn't look like a fluke. Corbin Burnes, his most obvious rival in the AL Cy Young race, is pitching very well (2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) but he's been trending in a different direction. While his walks are down from a year ago, he hasn't reclaimed that dominant form from 2021 when he posted a 5.2% walk rate (worse than Skubal's this year) while allowing just seven home runs in 167 innings. To put that into context, he's already surrendered six homers in 53 2/3 this season. Additionally, his strikeout rate has dipped every season since a career-high 36.7% in 2020 to 23.3% in 2024. None of this is to say Burnes isn't and won't continue to be a very good pitcher, he's second on the odds board for a reason, but it seems unlikely that he'll suddenly find that overpowering form. And if he's pitching more to contact, that is simply more difficult to maintain a base level of success without the occasional blowup (look at Logan Webb's last few starts). If Burnes was available around 10/1, I'd be more inclined to take a flier on him.
5/6/2024: Just as he looked like he might be staking his claim as one of the upper-echelon hurlers in the American League, Baltimore Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez landed on the injured list with a shoulder injury. Not great. It will ultimately depend on the severity of the injury, but Rodriguez's chances at winning AL Cy Young are greatly diminished as a result. For now, only FanDuel truly reflects this by moving his odds to +8,000 from just +2,000 a week ago. His Orioles teammate Corbin Burnes is left to do battle with Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal until someone else joins the fray on the back of a couple of consecutive sparkling outings.
4/30/2024: We haven't spent enough time on Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal in this space. The fact is Skubal has been one of baseball's best pitchers since returning from injury last summer. Through six starts this season, Skubal is 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. He's allowed more than two earned runs in just one outing (against the Oakland Athletics of all teams) and has been generally dominant. He was second on the odds board until this week, leaping Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes. The Seattle Mariners have four starters listed in the Top 15, but it's Bryce Miller who has looked the most impressive early and he's drawing the longest odds to win the Cy Young at 35/1. His BABIP is very low and his FIP screams regression but if you watched his most recent start, he's clearly got something working. He was perfect through five innings against the Atlanta Braves, had a no-hitter through six, and only surrendered the lead because Ronald Acuna Jr. stole two bases after reaching on a bloop hit. Miller struck out a season-high 10 batters and walked only one.
4/22/2024: Reid Detmers was trading as high as 40/1 at our last update. Those lines are long gone, and he's shorter than 20/1 at some books. He owns a 1.19 ERA through 22 2/3 innings across four starts. The lefty still isn't the most efficient, requiring 90 pitches to get through 5 1/3 against the Rays in his last outing, but he's done a wonderful job of preventing runs. He allowed seven hits in that Tampa start but only two runs plated and only one was earned.
4/15/2024: Another terrible outing has Kevin Gausman reeling. The normally dependable Toronto Blue Jays right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings, surrendering three homers in the process. It's a deep hole to dig out of and his odds haven't dipped enough to take a flier on him rebounding. Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan has joined the fray near the top of the board, though Caesars still offers 22/1 compared to 15/1 or shorter elsewhere. Ryan is coming off a fantastic outing where he struck out 12 Detroit Tigers over six innings while allowing only one earned run. Reid Detmers is another intriguing name on the board who had been absent until this update. A former top prospect, the Los Angeles Angels lefty is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 17 1/3 innings in two starts against the Red Sox and one against the Orioles. He's lined up to face the Rays next, and another sparkling effort will find his odds shortened even more.
4/9/2024: Shane Bieber's season is over. Nick Pivetta is on the IL with an elbow injury and might not pitch for a while. Framber Valdez is dealing with a sore elbow. Understandably, Bieber has disappeared from books (hopefully, you didn't jump on him after he recorded back-to-back scoreless outings before the Tommy John announcement). FanDuel seems to react more in the extreme to negative news and performance. Valdez is still listed in its odds but at 35/1 compared to 10/1 at DraftKings. Similarly, George Kirby's rough second start has seen him crater relative to the other sportsbooks. Hunter Brown has looked dreadful and the disparity in the odds is notable between +3,300 and +12,000 (!). Gerrit Cole isn't even listed at FanDuel. And while the Yankees ace is about to start throwing, he doesn't have a concrete return date, making his 11/1 odds at Caesars ludicrous. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman is active but his velocity is down. He's not worried but books have moved him from a Top-3 favorite to further down the list.
4/4/2024: After a week of play, we are still awaiting more robust data outside of small sample sizes. Of the perceived contenders listed above, many only have two starts under their belts while others have one. Most of the time, a bad start won't be enough to upend your odds, especially early on, but FanDuel has potentially over-adjusted the line on Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby. The 26-year-old was thoroughly pummelled by the Cleveland Guardians in his second start, allowing eight runs on 12 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. That's an awful outing, but he also held the Boston Red Sox scoreless over 6 2/3 in his first game. Cleveland isn't a prolific offense, and Kirby kept the ball in the park while not issuing a walk. For now, this can be chalked up as an anomaly. If you're still bullish on Kirby, +2,500 is excellent value, especially after he opened the season at +1,400 or shorter. As far as snap reactions go, it looks like the time to jump on Guardians ace Shane Bieber was before the season. After an injury-shortened 2023, Bieber entered the season at around 30/1 in AL Cy Young odds. He's now +1,100 at best because he's yet to allow a run through 12 innings across two starts. He's racked up 20 strikeouts to only one walk. The caveat here is that one of his opponents was Oakland, who is easily the worst team in the AL.
3/27/2024: Three names immediately jump off the page this week, and it's mostly due to their line movement at DraftKings compared to other sportsbooks: Kansas City Royals lefty Cole Ragans, Cleveland Guardians righty Tanner Bibee, and Houston Astros sophomore Hunter Brown. Ragans has been a mainstay near the top of the board but below the heaviest favorites all offseason. Now, he's at +900 at DK and around 14/1 everywhere else. Pitcher wins have largely been eschewed as a measuring stick for success, and recent Cy Young winners have generally played on winning teams. In the last 10 seasons, only two winners have played on teams with losing records and neither was in the AL: 2022 Sandy Alcantara and 2018 Jacob deGrom. The Royals are projected to win 76 games, per FanGraphs, so while it is possible, Ragan might have a tough road ahead of him unless he pitches like 2010 Felix Hernandez or 2009 Zack Greinke, and is undeniable. Bibee and Brown are a bit different. The Guardians are probably a .500 team, but the pitching factory they've run for ages continues churning out solid arms. Bibee shined in his rookie campaign and makes up for his relative lack of strikeouts with excellent command while keeping the ball in the park. Brown petered off down the stretch last year but plays for one of the best teams in baseball and should have plenty of run support. If his stamina takes a step forward, he could conceivably be Houston's ace by season's end. Both Bibee and Brown are available at 100/1 or longer at some books.
3/14/2024: Uh oh. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will miss 1-2 months with an elbow injury and met with Tommy John specialist Dr. Neal ElAttrache. While a season-ending surgery hasn't been announced, and the Yankees are outwardly optimistic about his chances of returning this year, Cole's odds are understandably taking a nose dive. Elbow injuries are no joke and even if he does pitch this year, he'll be behind the 8-ball. Now, this could open up some opportunity from a betting perspective if the odds get long enough, but they're not there just yet. I'd want to see him at +5,000 or better to place a speculative wager on him but the longest we're seeing is +2,200. That juice is not worth the squeeze. It's crazy how quickly things can change. The Toronto Blue Jays may shift their rotation around to allow ace Kevin Gausman a little more time to ramp up following his recent shoulder fatigue but, for now, anyway, the right-hander isn't expected to be on the shelf to open the season. He's also now the betting favorite at some books to win AL Cy Young with Cole sidelined. Still, if that shoulder barks, these numbers could change quickly.
3/5/2024: The Toronto Blue Jays were the luckiest team in baseball when it came to pitcher health in 2023, with four hurlers tallying 30+ starts apiece, something no other team in the majors accomplished. Well, ace Kevin Gausman is dealing with shoulder fatigue and his status is suddenly up in the air for the rest of spring training and Opening Day. Now, it could be something he overcomes quickly and doesn't miss much — if any — time during the regular season. But, anytime the word "shoulder" pops up in terms of a pitcher injury, it's worth some concern. For now, betting odds haven't shifted, but it'd be wise to hold off on placing any wagers on Gausman until his situation clears because you're not getting a good price for the risk. Speaking of risk, New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon is now on our odds list. Most importantly, he seems healthy. He's also working on adding a cutter to his arsenal, which could help against right-handed hitters. Barring an injury setback, these odds probably won't get longer, so if you're looking to take a flier on the big southpaw, now's the time. Remember, between 2021 and 2022 — both All-Star seasons — Rodon went 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings across 55 starts between the White Sox and Giants. He also struck out 422 batters for a 12.2 K/9. He's got the stuff, he just has to stay healthy.
2/29/2024: Since our last update, there's been some interesting movement. For one, Minnesota Twins ace Pablo Lopez is trading as long as +1,600 (DraftKings) after being between 10/1 and 12/1 just 10 days ago. Meanwhile, sophomore Baltimore Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is as short as +1,600 (Caesars) after the consensus had him no shorter than +2,500. Lopez got knocked around in his spring training debut, but we can't put too much stock in preseason results. With Kyle Bradish and John Means in limbo to start the year, Rodriguez will be under the spotlight in Baltimore. He's added a two-seamer to his pitch repertoire, which could be a huge step forward as he looks to live up to his top-prospect shine.
2/19/2024: And now the injury news starts trickling out. Baltimore Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish is dealing with a sprained UCL, which could cost him a large chunk of the season or more. That diagnosis is often, though not always, a precursor to Tommy John surgery. Not all books have reacted to this news, however, as DraftKings and bet365 are still trading him between +3,000 and +3,300. FanDuel has bumped his odds a bit more to +7,000, but with his season hanging in the balance, that's a lot of risk to take on before a single pitch has been thrown. Bradish's teammate John Means is dealing with a setback to his throwing elbow. Means logged 23 2/3 innings last September as he returned from Tommy John and it looks like he'll open the season on the injured list. Manager Brandon Hyde said the tentative plan is for Means to make his season debut at some point in April. Similarly, Houston Astros veteran Justin Verlander said he's a couple of weeks behind schedule due to a shoulder issue. At 40, the three-time Cy Young winner is understandably winding his career down despite being able to compete at a high level when healthy. It will depend on exactly how much time he misses or if he's able to ramp up throughout spring to be ready for Opening Day.
2/12/2024: Other than some slight adjustments to Corbin Burnes' odds at bet365 and Grayson Rodriguez seeing his number shorten to +2,500 at bet365 and Caesars, AL Cy Young odds have been mostly in a holding pattern as we await more moves.
2/4/2024: All right, now we're cookin'. The Baltimore Orioles landed a massive fish in acquiring Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall. Ortiz is a talented infielder who might be all glove and no bat while Hall has long been touted as a rotation piece but control issues have limited him to the bullpen. Even if the Orioles don't extend Burnes, he is a top-of-the-rotation arm they've sorely needed as the young core has emerged. They dealt from a position of strength and depth and nabbed a 29-year-old righty who owns a 3.26 ERA over 709 1/3 career innings since debuting in 2018. Now, his ERA has trended up and his strikeout rates have trended down since winning the NL Cy Young in 2021. It remains to be seen if this will continue or if a change of venue brings him back to his most dominant self. For now, he's either fourth or fifth on the odds board a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report. If Burnes were able to pull it off with Baltimore, he would become the eighth pitcher to win a Cy Young in both the American League and National League, joining (in chronological order) Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Max Scherzer, and Blake Snell — who accomplished the feat just last year as a member of the San Diego Padres.
1/15/2024: Marcus Stroman signed a multi-year pact with the New York Yankees, but is either not on the board at all yet or is distantly outside the favorites (+8,000 at Caesars). There isn't a ton of variance from book to book, and Gerrit Cole is fairly firmly entrenched as the top option with Kevin Gausman right behind him.
1/2/2024: Not much has changed here since the last update. Gerrit Cole has seen his odds shorten at FanDuel while other books have started to open their markets. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing in the National League, there's at least a little less competition for the New York Yankees ace to worry about in his attempt to win consecutive trophies.
12/14/2023: Win one Cy Young and you're suddenly expected to do it all over again? That's what's happening for New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who finally won his first Cy Young in 2023. AL East rival Kevin Gausman was one of the finalists and certainly has the stuff to challenge Cole. Sonny Gray, the third finalist, signed a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals and will be competing for NL honors this season. These odds should shuffle a bit as the offseason progresses. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still free agents. Yoshinobu Yamamoto still hasn't signed, though there is widespread interest for his services. Tyler Glasnow might be on the verge of being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers and both Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have had their names pop up in trade rumors. If they get traded to NL teams, they would switch odds boards. Also, the hype machine has caught up with Royals lefty Cole Ragans, whom Kansas City acquired from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman last June. In 12 starts following the trade, Ragans went 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 89 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings.
11/20/2023: It's at least slightly surprising that Gerrit Cole waited this long to win his first Cy Young award. He probably should have won in 2019 when the honor fell to his then-teammate Justin Verlander on the Houston Astros. Though Cole's numbers in 2023 weren't as eye-popping as they have been in seasons past, he showcased a consistency and durability that many of his peers didn't. He simply never got blown up, rarely issued walks, and kept the ball in the park. His 209 innings pitched represented a new career-high and his 2.63 ERA trailed only his 2015 and 2019 seasons. With the victory, Cole became the first Yankees pitcher to win a Cy Young since Roger Clemens in 2001. Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman rounded out the Top 3.
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Odds to win NL Cy Young award 2024
| Player | |
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zack Wheeler |
+330 | +350 | +350 | +350 |
 Shota Imanaga |
+350 | +440 | +400 | +350 |
| Ranger Suarez |
+500 | +900 | +700 | +400 |
 Chris Sale |
+700 | +600 | +600 | +650 |
 Tyler Glasnow |
+750 | +800 | +800 | +700 |
 Dylan Cease |
+1,500 | +1,700 | +1,600 | +1,400 |
 Freddy Peralta |
+1,600 | +2,900 | +3,000 | +1,600 |
 Zac Gallen |
+2,000 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
+2,000 | +3,900 | +4,000 | +2,200 |
 Sonny Gray |
+2,000 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
 Logan Webb |
+2,000 | +2,100 | +2,000 | +3,000 |
| Max Fried |
+2,500 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,500 |
| Aaron Nola |
+2,500 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Yu Darvish |
+3,500 | +6,500 | +6,500 | +4,000 |
 Mitch Keller |
+4,000 | +15,000 | +15,000 | +7,500 |
| Jared Jones |
+4,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 | +6,000 |
 Hunter Greene |
+4,000 | +5,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds as of 5-28-24.
NL Cy Young analysis
5/21/24: San Diego Padres right-hander Yu Darvish has seen his odds shorten at DraftKings and FanDuel, stay the same at Caesars, and explode to +65,000 at bet365 in the last week. That is not a typo, at least not on my end. It should theoretically move because that's far too much of an overcorrection after one atrocious start. He allowed seven runs on nine hits (four home runs) in 5 2/3 innings against the Yankees. Before that, he had not allowed a run in four consecutive starts, a span of 24 innings. Even after the implosion, his ERA sits at 3.04.
Injury risk is always in play with Darvish, and he's already missed time this season, but that's an absurd odds disparity that I can't imagine will stick around, especially if he handles the Miami Marlins in his next start like most pitchers have this season. It's a long shot, but that gap is something worth exploiting while it exists.
And poof, like that, it's gone. Minutes after hitting publish on this piece, the line had moved back to +6,500. It was a beautiful and fleeting time.
Previous NL Cy Young action
5/21/24: A couple of veteran hurlers finding new life of late are the most intriguing names this week. Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale is 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, and his 3.6% walk rate would be the best mark in his entire career. Sale hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts (20 innings) and has surrendered just two earned runs over his last five (0.56 ERA) starts. Believe it or not, Sale has never won a Cy Young despite finishing in the Top 6 in voting for seven consecutive seasons from 2012 to 2018. Injuries derailed the last few seasons in Boston, but he looks healthy and is averaging 94.5 mph on his fastball (around what he was hitting during his heyday). Books were slow to adjust as his lengthy injury history likely maintained a healthy level of doubt and uncertainty, but he's now gone from a high of 37/1 a week ago to 12/1 today. San Diego Padres righty Yu Darvish is in similarly excellent form and has seen his odds get slashed in half from 100/1 to 50/1 in the same period as Sale. Darvish missed some time on the IL but has gone 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over nine starts. In fact, Darvish hasn't allowed an earned run since being activated from the IL on April 30, going 4-0 with 24 strikeouts and just 10 hits allowed over his last 24 innings. Full-season durability will be a question for both pitchers, but they are adding extra intrigue into the Cy Young odds race just before June.
5/14/24: Like in the American League, the very top of the NL board is pretty familiar from week to week. However, one name is popping out above the others right now: Ranger Suarez. The Philadelphia Phillies left-hander has been sharp all season and I think most people have simply been waiting for the bubble to burst. Over the past two seasons, Suarez posted a 3.88 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 248 strikeouts over 280 1/3 innings. That's not bad, but it's not dominant like the 7-1 record with a 1.50 ERA and MLB-leading 0.72 WHIP through eight starts in 2024. Suarez hasn't changed much about his arsenal except he's almost completely removed the slider from the equation. His fastball velocity is even down a couple of ticks, averaging 91.5 mph. But he's not walking anyone and he's keeping the ball in the park. I'm skeptical about his chances at keeping it up but he's been a good story for the Phillies.
5/6/24: We've got a similar situation on the Senior Circuit with two pitchers — Zack Wheeler and Tyler Glasnow — elevating themselves above the rest of the competition. But there is a logjam of arms fetching odds between 10/1 and 20/1 with variance between books. Of those names, Sonny Gray is a pitcher to watch. The St. Louis Cardinals ace was delayed to start the season but has wasted no time rounding into form. Through five starts, he's 4-1 on a struggling Cardinals team and has posted a 0.89 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings (11.27 K/9). He was widely available at 16/1 a week ago and books are starting to adjust.
4/30/24: The top of the board has seen minimal movement apart from Freddy Peralta dropping down a couple of notches after getting shelled for the first time this season, allowing five runs on five hits and a whopping five walks to the Pirates. Zack Wheeler continues to be a model of consistency while Tyler Glasnow looks like he might have more longevity than ever before (though it might be too early to make that call). In the AL section, I looked at Bryce Miller's outstanding performance against the Atlanta Braves. Well, he was never in line to win that game because Max Fried nearly matched him pitch for pitch. Fried issued a pair of walks over six scoreless innings while not allowing a single hit. That marks two consecutive scoreless outings for the southpaw as he has seemingly righted the ship after a disastrous start to the season. Some books have already shortened his odds but others haven't been as quick to react with 50/1 still available.
4/22/24: Zack Wheeler, and Freddy Peralta are listed in the top two spots at all books with some variance regarding who's the ultimate favorite. Wheeler is in the more favorable position, pitching for the team with better World Series odds, but Peralta has made the most of his opportunities as the Milwaukee Brewers ace in the wake of the Corbin Burnes trade and injury to Brandon Woodruff. Fastball Freddy is 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over 23 2/3 innings to open the season. Zac Gallen was the biggest mover on the week but in the wrong direction. He allowed five runs on nine hits against the San Francisco Giants in his last start, surrendering his first two long balls of the season in the process. With how tight these odds are, one bad start can derail a pitcher's progress. Oh, and remember how Tyler Glasnow was in a position to make a huge jump with a looming start against the Nationals? Well, Washington tagged him for six runs on eight hits (two homers) over five rocky innings. He made up for that, however, by blanking the Mets over eight innings in his most recent outing, striking out 10, and more or less balancing his odds in the process.
4/15/24: Spencer Strider is officially done until 2025 after undergoing internal brace elbow surgery. We're left with a clogged top of the board where Zac Gallen, Zack Wheeler, and Freddy Peralta can each be found sporting the shortest odds at various sportsbooks. If Tyler Glasnow shuts down the Washington Nationals like he did the Minnesota Twins, he should leapfrog them all. The wildest disparity belongs to San Francisco Giants righty Jordan Hicks, who is as short as +3,000 and as long as 100/1 at Caesars. The converted reliever is a long shot, but he's completed at least six innings in each of his last two outings and owns a 1.00 ERA over three starts. It could be a case of pitching in the right situation, as the sinkerballer will feel right at home at spacious Oracle Park all season. Finally, books might not be reacting fast enough to Shota Imanaga. The lefty has yet to allow an earned run in 15 1/3 innings across three starts, and that innings count could be higher were it not for his second game being cut short due to a lengthy rain delay. A favorable matchup against the punchless Marlins awaits, which could strengthen his case even further.
4/9/24: Spencer Strider has a torn UCL and while he hasn't undergone Tommy John surgery yet, he is facing a lengthy absence whether he gets the procedure or not. For those who believe he'll miraculously bounce back after a minimum stay on the IL, you can still bet on him to win at Caesars at +4,000, though I'd advise against that. Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler jumps to the top of the odds board as a result. And while Wheeler dealt with myriad injuries early in his career, he's been a model of health and consistency of late. If he can dominate the Cardinals on Tuesday, his odds will shorten more.
4/4/24: Spencer Strider hasn't fallen from his top spot since he's only made one start. He was slated to take on the White Sox but that game was rained out. A date with the Arizona Diamondbacks will help tell the tale as his first outing was a textbook Strider game. He struck out eight while allowing two runs on three hits (one home run) in five innings of work. The workload should only increase as the season marches on, and if he can keep the homers under control, he could be a wire-to-wire winner. Standing in his way, Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler has been phenomenal to open the year. Wheeler has allowed one earned run in 12 innings across two starts. He's struck out 15 and walked one. Somehow, he's 0-1. The Chicago Cubs lost Justin Steele to a hamstring strain but saw outstanding results from Shota Imanaga in his first start. The Japanese lefty didn't allow a hit until the sixth inning and fanned nine Colorado Rockies in his MLB debut. Now, it was the Rockies, so take it with a grain of salt. Still, he was available at +15,000 just before Opening Day. Another fine start and his odds will shorten even more.
3/27/24: How much will Yoshinobu Yamamoto's awful first start with the Los Angeles Dodgers affect his season? This seems like an absurd question. He had one bad start, something that befalls almost every hurler at least a couple of times a season. It was his first with a new team in a new league and it was played in South Korea. While books haven't adjusted much, FanDuel did move his line from +1,400 to +1,700 since the outing against the Padres in Seoul. If Yamamoto has a knockout performance in his next start — which will come at Dodger Stadium vs. either the Cardinals or Giants — then those odds are going to shorten.
3/19/24: Less than a week after the San Diego Padres found his replacement, reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell latched on with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year deal. He finally gives the Giants a big-ticket free agent while also helping round out the rotation. It gives San Francisco two entirely different looks atop the pitching staff between Snell and incumbent ace Logan Webb. It also takes the pressure off rookie Kyle Harrison, who was projected to open the season as the No. 2 starter before Snell's arrival. Snell is immediately among the betting favorites, and pitching half his games in pitcher-friendly Oracle will help. The Miami Marlins got some bad news as Eury Perez is dealing with right elbow soreness. Whether or not this means Tommy John is in his future, the Marlins will play it safe with their budding ace. Like with Gerrit Cole, books haven't adjusted the price enough to reflect the injury, especially since his absence could be months instead of weeks. With Sandy Alcantara already out for the year, Miami will test its depth beyond Jesus Luzardo, which likely means ample innings for Max Meyer and A.J. Puk.
3/14/24: The San Diego Padres made a massive splash by trading for right-hander Dylan Cease this week. Cease's odds to win Cy Young aren't available at all books just yet, but he's looking like he'll be just outside the favorites to open the season. The 28-year-old is coming off a disappointing 2023 but he finished second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 when he went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 184 innings. He has excelled strikeout upside but also some dodgy command.
3/5/24: St. Louis Cardinals prized acquisition Sonny Gray left his most recent spring training start with hamstring tightness. Losing Gray for any time would be borderline catastrophic for that rotation as he's the clear ace. From a betting perspective, it's hard to trust him at his current number because of the uncertainty. The Philadelphia Phillies locked up Zack Wheeler on a three-year, $126-million extension. This is significant because it could indicate that the club is confident that past injuries won't suddenly flare up again. Somehow, Wheeler still wears the "injury-prone" label despite barely missing time since 2018.
2/29/24: We got our first glimpse of Yoshinobu Yamamoto as he made his spring training debut by making short work of the Texas Rangers this week. The Los Angeles Dodgers righty struck out three batters over two scoreless innings. He allowed one hit to Evan Carter but was otherwise spotless. We can't place too much stock into spring results, but it's encouraging to see early success even in such a relaxed environment as the Cactus League. In injury news, DraftKings is slow to update New York Mets right-hander Kodai Senga odds after he was shut down for three weeks due to a shoulder strain. DK is still trading him at +1,500 to win NL Cy Young while FanDuel has adjusted him to +5,000. Even then, this injury might keep him out for a long stretch of the season, which would nullify his chances.
2/19/24: There haven't been any high-profile injuries or signings in the Senior Circuit in the last couple of weeks and we haven't seen much movement. Keep an eye on workouts, though, as we'll get a clearer picture of where pitchers stand as the season approaches. One thing that finally happened is Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is now listed at bet365. However, that also happens to be where he's drawing the shortest odds at the moment.
2/12/24: Lines haven't seen any movement since Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles. Now we wait and see if Blake Snell stays in the NL or if Jordan Montgomery returns.
2/4/24: Corbin Burnes went from fourth on the NL board to fourth in the AL. Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider looks like he'll enter the regular season with the shortest odds to claim his first Cy Young with Philadelphia Phillies righty Zack Wheeler and San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb rounding out the Top 3.
1/15/24: Caesars has updated its ranks to include Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Sonny Gray. And if you're shopping for value, it's offering the best odds for several competitors. Yoshinobu Yamamoto remains OTB at bet365 and is between +1,200 and +1,600 at the other books.
1/2/24: The Los Angeles Dodgers went shopping and landed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the most coveted free agent on the pitching market this offseason. Yes, even moreso than reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who remains without a team for 2024 at the moment. Books have been careful with his odds (bet365 doesn't have him listed yet) as the transition from Japan to MLB isn't always smooth right off the bat. Still, 16/1 might be the best we see, especially if he starts strong. He also doesn't have the chronic injury risk associated with him that fellow new Dodger Tyler Glasnow does. As a result, while the right-hander's stuff is clearly elite, he's drawing longer odds in his move to the NL. Weirdly, Caesars doesn't have Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, or Sonny Gray listed. They were each free agents earlier in the offseason but their deals were inked a while ago and that FA status didn't stop them from listing Yamamoto.
12/14/23: Spencer Strider wasn't among the finalists in 2023, but he did dominate opposing hitters for much of the season. No one even touched his strikeout numbers. He punched out 36.8% of opponents, leading all qualified starters. Only three other SPs had strikeout rates north of 30% and eventual NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell was tops at 31.5%. Like with a couple of AL names, we could be in for some trades on this front. The most notable name that could be on the block is former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. The Brewers might be headed for a rebuild and would be in a decent position to expedite the process by dealing the right-hander. Burnes has just one year of team control remaining and it's unlikely the three-time All-Star signs an extension. Two pitchers who have jumped from the Junior Circuit are Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez. Gray was a finalist for the AL award in 2023 after recording arguably the best season of his career. E-Rod, meanwhile, came back admirably from injury to post a career-best 3.30 ERA while going 13-9 with 143 strikeouts in 152 2/3 innings across 26 starts. He will offer better stability to the middle of the Diamondbacks rotation.
9/25/23: The primary knock against Blake Snell in 2023 was his walk rate. On the surface, this criticism makes sense as his 13.3% walk rate was the highest of his career and was the highest among all qualified starters this season. But, he simply didn't allow any hits. Snell maintained a 2.25 ERA across 180 innings despite all those baserunners thanks in large part to his 11.7 K/9 (31.5 K%). Now a free agent, his status as a two-time Cy Young winner (previously winning in 2018 with the Rays) will likely garner him a lucrative contract. Logan Webb and Zac Gallen were the other finalists.
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Previous Cy Young Award winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Cleveland and the New York Mets each leading the way with three. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven.
Previous AL Cy Young winners
| Year | American League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Gerrit Cole |
| 2022 | Justin Verlander |
| 2021 | Robbie Ray |
| 2020 | Shane Bieber |
| 2019 | Justin Verlander |
| 2018 |  Blake Snell |
| 2017 | Corey Kluber |
| 2016 | Rick Porcello |
| 2015 | Dallas Keuchel |
| 2014 | Corey Kluber |
| 2013 | Max Scherzer |
Previous NL Cy Young winners
| Year | National League Winner |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Blake Snell |
| 2022 |  Sandy Alcantara |
| 2021 | Corbin Burnes |
| 2020 | Trevor Bauer |
| 2019 |  Jacob deGrom |
| 2018 | Jacob deGrom |
| 2017 |  Max Scherzer |
| 2016 | Max Scherzer |
| 2015 | Jake Arrieta |
| 2014 | Clayton Kershaw |
| 2013 | Clayton Kershaw |
Pitchers with multiple Cy Young awards
There are 22 pitchers who have won multiple Cy Young Awards, led by Roger Clemens' seven trophies. Of those 22 winners, six are still currently active in the Majors.
| Pitcher | Number of Cy Young Awards (Years) |
|---|---|
| Roger Clemens | 7 (1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2004) |
| Randy Johnson | 5 (1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002) |
| Steve Carlton | 4 (1972, 1977, 1980, 1982 |
| Greg Maddux | 4 (1992, 1993, 1994, 1995) |
| Seven different pitchers | 3 |
| 11 different pitchers | 2 |
Popular MLB futures markets
MLB Cy Young odds explained
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Shane Bieber looked to have the AL Cy Young locked up in 2020, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number.
- Shane Bieber -300
That means that a bettor in September had to wager $300 to win $100 by betting on Bieber. Before this year's race even began, every candidate had a (+) sign in front of their number.
- Jacob deGrom +550
With deGrom's preseason odds, a bettor stands to profit $550 for every $100 wagered on him.
If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
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MLB Cy Young Odds
Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is fetching the shortest odds across the board.
Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler is consistently fetching the shortest odds to win NL Cy Young.
New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole won the AL Cy Young while free-agent left-hander Blake Snell won in the NL as a member of the San Diego Padres.
Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards throughout his career. Only one other pitcher, Randy Johnson, has even won five.
Jacob deGrom won both the 2018 and 2019 NL Cy Young awards. Immediately before him, Max Scherzer won in back-to-back seasons in 2016-17.
