Nikola Jokic Odds and Props: The Pressure is On in the Mile High City

For the first time in nearly two full years, the pressure is squarely on the Denver Nuggets and soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. They have lost homecourt advantage in the Western Conference Semifinals, and the Minnesota Timberwolves could not look much better.

If the Nuggets want to avoid an 0-2 hole during their title defense, Jokic will need to do more tonight, even more than his 32-8-9 effort in the Game 1 loss.

Let’s look through some NBA picks and find some Nikola Jokic props before Timberwolves vs Nuggets on May 6 tips at 10:00 ET.

Nikola Jokic prop picks for May 6

• Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
• Over 29.5 points, Over 1.5 threes, Under 12.5 rebounds (+700 at DraftKings)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Nikola Jokic best bet

Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points

Jamal Murray is clearly not himself. The usually clutch guard shot just 6-for-14 in Game 1, including 0-for-5 in the first half. Murray scoring 17 points is concerning on its own, but his shot volume made it most obvious that his calf injury is a continuing concern.

On the way to the NBA title in 2023, Murray averaged 20.5 field-goal attempts in 20 postseason games, scoring 26.1 points per game. In this year’s closer-than-it-seemed series win against the Lakers, Murray took 24 shots per game. But putting up 28 attempts in the series-clincher, including the game-winning shot with only seconds left on the clock, aggravated Murray’s calf.

Combine that loss of a step with the Minnesota Timberwolves’ elite perimeter defenders in Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Anthony Edwards, and Murray is going to struggle to carry his typical workload.

But in a must-win moment tonight, the Denver Nuggets still need to find offense. Nikola Jokic’s game may be best enjoyed when he does a bit of everything, but his focus needs to be on scoring. If Murray is either not healthy enough to get shots up or simply cannot get loose from Minnesota’s defense — or, most likely, a bit of both — then those four or more shots need to be taken by someone else. And no one on Denver’s roster is a better scorer than Jokic, even if it is not the sole perk of his skill set.

Trailing 1-0 in this series should elicit early aggression from Jokic as he shoulders the offensive burden.

Prop: Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)

Nikola Jokic same-game parlay

Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points

Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 threes

Nikola Jokic Under 12.5 rebounds

+700 at DraftKings

Unless Jokic clones himself, the Timberwolves’ size will make his life difficult on the inside. Karl-Anthony Towns has proven to be a decent defender on Jokic, not stopping him because no one really can, but limiting Jokic enough. The Denver star went 4-of-12 on Saturday night when Towns defended him.

That will not change on Monday night. And then behind Towns, Minnesota can run Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid at Jokic. Even Kyle Anderson can provide spot minutes.

If Jokic tries to score all night on the inside, he will get worn out. That was already showing itself in Game 1, when he took nine 3-pointers, hitting just two of them. He should keep chucking from deep tonight, particularly with his needed offensive emphasis.

The combination of Minnesota's size and Jokic’s offensive workload should drop his rebounding numbers. Unlike most teams, the Timberwolves can box him out, and spending energy to collect on the glass will only cost Jokic as he tries to replace Murray’s offense. Again, both of those thoughts showed in Game 1, as Jokic finished with eight rebounds.

This same-game parlay would have cashed in Game 1, yet it is now priced at +700.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pages related to this topic