Don't call it a comeback for Donald Trump. Despite losing the previous election to Joe Biden, Trump hasn't strayed far from the spotlight and remains at the top of the US presidential election odds board.
After locking up the Republican nomination with a dominant Super Tuesday, Trump became the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 election. While he briefly shifted to +110, he moved back to -110 at the start of May.
Here are Trump's presidential election odds as he looks to become just the second person ever to serve two non-consecutive terms in the White House.
Donald Trump fast facts
| Date of birth | June 14, 1946 |
| Place of birth | New York City, NY |
| Residence | Mar-a-Lago, FL |
| Political affiliation | Republican Party |
| Net worth | $2.5 billion USD |
| Education | New York Military Academy (1959-1964); Fordham University (1964-66); Wharton School (1966-68) |
| Spouse | Melania Trump (2005-present) |
2024 presidential election betting odds
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Donald Trump |
-120 | 52.3% |
 Joe Biden |
+110 | 45.5% |
| Michelle Obama |
+1,600 | 5.9% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +1,600 | 5.9% |
| Gavin Newsom |
+2,800 | 3.4% |
| Kamala Harris |
+3,300 | 2.9% |
| Nikki Haley |
+5,000 | 2% |
| Gretchen Whitmer |
+7,000 | 1.4% |
| Hakeem Jeffries |
+10,000 | 1% |
| Elizabeth Warren |
+15,000 | 0.66% |
| Hillary Clinton |
+15,000 | 0.66% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 4, 2024.
Beating Biden
Trump was tied with Biden at +110 just a month ago but he's back in front after a tumultuous May that saw the U.S. economy stall and anti-Palestinian protests erupt across the country.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate for 2024’s first-quarter real GDP growth and it's the worst quarterly performance in two years. While Biden has long been touting job growth and a strong dollar as indicators of an improving economy, high interest rates, and inflation continue to hit American voters in their wallets.
Meanwhile, the conflict in Gaza has resulted in protests at campuses across the country, which have led to more than 2,000 arrests. Despite the White House’s criticism of the protesters and Biden’s refusal to cut off US support for Israel, Republicans have blamed Democrats for the disorder.
With the migrant crisis at the border also adding to the terrible optics for Biden's regime, the upcoming election should be a layup for the GOP. However, while Trump is polling better than he was four years ago, he remains wildly unpopular.
While only 40.3% of Americans have a favorable opinion of President Joe Biden, Trump checks in only slightly better at 42%. And while a Gallup poll rated Trump as the more decisive leader, it also rated him significantly lower in likeability and trustworthiness.
It's been a double-edged sword for Trump, with his brash and abrasive personality appealing to the MAGA vote but also losing support from moderate Republicans and those across the aisle. Ultimately, whether he can win the general election will come down to whether swing voters are willing to tolerate his character in exchange for policies that they feel will improve their quality of life.
Many Never-Trumpers and those Republicans unwilling to vote for Trump again would still be loathe to cross aisles and vote for Biden. However, even if they refuse to vote or decide to vote for an Independent option like Robert Kennedy Jr., it would be a boon for the Democrat party.
Battling for the swing states
In elections that look this close, the winner is usually whoever can win key battleground states. Biden won the 2020 election in large part due to narrow victories in swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all states Trump took in 2016.
Although polls have Trump leading in most battleground states this time around, that gap has been shrinking. According to an April poll by Morning Consult, Biden now leads Trump by a point in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Trump has seen his support among Latinos grow and an Axios/Ipsos poll gave him an edge on Biden when it came to issues regarding the economy (42-20), crime (31-20), and even immigration (29-22). With Latinos accounting for 15% of eligible voters and having a strong presence in Nevada and Arizona, Trump winning over those voters would be crucial to his success in those states.
That said, there are ways to lose voters in those battleground states as well, and the recent neat-total abortion ban in Arizona could result in major backlash for the Republicans. While Trump took credit for helping reverse Roe v Wade, he has also said that the recent ban went too far.
Trump facing criminal trials
Trump's presidential election odds took a hit last year when he was indicted in four criminal cases on a total of 91 felony counts. Those included charges for mishandling sensitive documents and trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as state charges for attempting to change the outcome of Biden's victory in Georgia.
Trump pulled a reverse Uno card on his charges by claiming they are proof of a witch hunt, and with his base rallying behind him, his odds have since recovered. It's become clear that not only do most Republicans not care about the legal problems surrounding Trump but that those charges won't derail his campaign as his legal team will look to delay the results until after the election
Trump was recently fined for contempt for violating a gag order in his criminal trial in New York. However, given that his brand has been built on his brazen personality, such actions will likely only endear him to his MAGA faithful.
Even if Trump can push some of his trials until after the election, the energy and money it takes to fight those legal battles will surely wear on him — or at least his wallet.
Rivals within the Republican Party
Over the last few years, other Republicans have emerged as potential presidential candidates, but the primaries proved that Trump is still the unquestioned top dog in the GOP. Trump had such a massive lead in the polls that he didn't even bother attending the primary debates, letting the other challengers tear each other to pieces.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis emerged as Trump's closest rival, but after polling well behind Trump and losing by 30 points to him in the Iowa primary, he dropped out of the race in January. The biggest flaw in DeSantis' campaign was that he drew his support from the MAGA contingent of the base, which remains extremely loyal to Trump.
In fact, Vivek Ramaswamy saw his national profile rise largely due to his support for Trump's policies and his refusal to say anything negative about the former president.
Nikki Haley was the last remaining Republican challenger, but even she conceded defeat after Super Tuesday, following lopsided losses in almost every state — including her own home state of South Carolina. Conservatives even derided Haley's lone two victories by pointing out that Vermont is a staunch blue state and that Trump's reputation as a political outsider is reinforced by losing in the political swamp of D.C.
While it has been a foregone conclusion that Trump would be able to secure the Republican nomination, he'll have a much tougher time winning in the general election, which is reflected in the slight drop in his odds.
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U.S. Presidential Election Winning party odds
| Gender | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Republican | +100 | 50% |
| Democrats | -110 | 52.4% |
| Independent | +2,500 | 3.8% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of May 4, 2024.
