Two races that will have major implications on the Kentucky Derby odds are set for Saturday as Gulfstream Park hosts the Florida Derby just one hour before Oaklawn Park presents the Arkansas Derby.
Breeders' Cup odds champ Fierceness will try to bounce back in the Florida Derby after flopping in his three-year-old debut, while Rebel Stakes winner Timberlake takes on some stern competition in the Arkansas Derby in Muth and Mystik Dan.
Join me as I make my free betting picks and offer wagering advice for each heat on Saturday, March 30.
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Florida Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Gulfstream Race 14
- Post time: 6:42 p.m. ET
- TV: CNBC
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frankie's Empire | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| 2 | Hades | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +333 |
| 3 | Bail Us Out | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,100 |
| 4 | Grand Mo the First | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| 5 | Real Macho | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +3,300 |
| 6 | Le Dom Bro | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| 7 | Catalytic | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +4,000 |
| 8 | Seminole Chief | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 9 | Conquest Warrior | 3-1 | +300 | +300 | +350 |
| 10 | Fierceness | 8-5 | +160 | +160 | +150 |
| 11 | Iris's Dream | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
Odds as of March 28, 2024.
No. 10 Fierceness (8-5, morning-line favorite) did not enjoy the smoothest of trips in his three-year-old unveiling in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes over this course on Feb. 3, getting bumped around at the start and racing wide. However, his lack of late kick was a bit surprising considering he was near a slow pace set by No. 2 Hades (7-2), who found more than enough in the stretch to prevail.
That being said, I still think Fierceness is the most likely winner of this race. The Todd Pletcher trainee has shown some improved AM workouts, including a five-furlong bullet drill on Mar. 22. If he can get closer to the speed figure earned in his Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph than he did off the bench, he should handle this bunch under John Velazquez.
Hades has every chance to get to the Kentucky Derby with an imposing 4-for-4 record. There's a lack of true speed types lined up to face him, and he only has to go a half-furlong further than he did when he upset the apple cart in the Holy Bull with Paco Lopez, who keeps the assignment.
No. 9 Conquest Warrior (3-1) is the other logical contender on the morning-line, and steps up in class for Shug McGaughey off a commanding victory at this 1 1/8-mile distance. Jockey Jose Ortiz seeks his first Florida Derby score.
No. 4 Grand Mo the First (15-1) seems to get better as the distances increase, and he should be rolling late under Emisael Jaramillo.
Best bet: $4 exacta 10/2,4,9, $2 exacta 2/4,9,10, $1 exacta box 2/10 ($20)
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Arkansas Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Oaklawn Race 12
- Post time: 7:47 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Take It | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +10,000 |
| 2 | Timberlake | 9-5 | +180 | +180 | +250 |
| 3 | Dimatic | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| 4 | Time for Truth | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,500 |
| 5 | Liberal Arts | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,200 |
| 6 | Informed Patriot | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 7 | Muth | 8-5 | +160 | +160 | +137 |
| 8 | Just Steel | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| 9 | Mystik Dan | 5-2 | +250 | +250 | +400 |
| 10 | Imperial Gun | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
Odds as of March 28, 2024.
No. 2 Timberlake (9-5) had some questions to answer in the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn when last seen after faltering in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the heels of a muddy Grade I Champagne Stakes score. I think he passed the test off the freshening, as he was able to negotiate a four-wide trip and have enough to hold off the deep closers.
I don't believe that Timberlake changed his lead foot when rider Cristian Torres wanted him to. If new pilot Flavien Prat can get Timberlake to change leads successfully in the Arkansas Derby, I think the Brad Cox trainee could be sitting on a lifetime-best effort.
No. 7 Muth (8-5, morning-line favorite) hasn't raced since January, when he crushed an overmatched group in the Grade II San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. I worry about his potential lack of stamina in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby off a seven-furlong prep, especially one that was nearly three months ago.
His prior 1 1/16th-mile tries at age two were a mixed bag, but a second-place result in the BC Juvenile makes him a logical threat to at least hit the board here. Juan Hernandez sees fit to fly in for the call for Bob Baffert.
No. 9 Mystik Dan (5-2) is a horse I'll use defensively as I don't entirely trust his freakish eight-length victory in a muddy renewal of the Grade III Southwest Stakes. Brian Hernandez Jr. is once again in the irons.
No. 5 Liberal Arts (15-1) has gotten better as the races have gotten longer, and it's possible that he isn't a mud-lover. I'm curious to see what he has to offer at this distance on a fast main oval at Oaklawn under Tyler Gaffalione, who had other choices in this heat.
Best bet: $8 exacta 2/7, $4 exacta 2/5,9, $4 exacta 7/2 ($20)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fierceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | Sierra Leone |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | Stronghold |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | Timberlake |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | Dornoch |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | Encino |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | Imagination* |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | Deterministic |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | Domestic Product |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | Catching Freedom |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | Endlessly |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
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