A pair of left-handers square off this afternoon when the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies meet for Game 2 of the MLB World Tour: The Mexico Series.
My Astros vs. Rockies predictions factor in the altitude and pitching matchup between Colorado's Austin Gomber and the returning Framber Valdez.
Follow my MLB picks for Astros vs. Rockies on Sunday, April 28 below.
Astros vs Rockies prediction
My best bet
Alex Bregman Over 2.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Mexico City's high altitude contributed to Saturday night's 16 runs but Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman went hitless in five at-bats.
Bregman’s struggles are nothing new this season. He’s off to a horrible start but has always hit left-handers well and has a good matchup with Colorado Rockies sinker-balling southpaw Austin Gomber. Bregman is batting only .204 with five extra-base hits and six RBI across 93 at-bats this season. He's yet to hit a home run.
He's been a slow starter for his entire career, but he’s recently shown signs of pulling out of his slump with hits in two of his last three games, including a pair on Thursday night against the Chicago Cubs. Bregman’s luck may change today against Gomber. He has 132 career extra-base hits against lefties with a slash line of .281/.376.496, specifically crushing four-seamers and changeups — he’ll see plenty of both from the Rockies southpaw today.
Gomber strikes out seven with nearly four walks per nine innings. The groundball pitcher surrenders 1.44 bombs per nine, hurling four-seamers that don’t move much and have lower velocity than in previous campaigns. Gomber gets a 36% whiff rate on the changeup, but he won’t sneak that pitch by Bregman today.
Finally, look for Bregman to have his breakout game of the season. The 30-year-old has had some excellent swings this week, and I expect this to continue on Sunday, with him clearing Over 2.5 total bases.
Astros vs Rockies same-game parlay (SGP)
Alex Bregman Over 2.5 total bases
Under 16.5
Astros moneyline
Last night’s game ended with 16 runs on the board, but this one won’t likely reach that number.
Sunday’s starters are primarily ground ball pitchers, and Gomber knows how to pitch in high altitudes from his time with Colorado. Houston starter Framber Valdez has served up 23 ground balls to only nine fly balls without a home run allowed across 12 1/3 frames.
The Astros will win this game because they will get to Gomber early. The Rockies lefty owns a 10% walk rate on the season, and the thin air coupled with Houston’s fifth-best 125 wRC+ and nine bombs against southpaws, will tell the tale.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Rockies odds
Astros vs Rockies live odds
Astros vs Rockies opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (-145) | Colorado +1.5 (+122)
- Moneyline: Houston -215 | Colorado +178
- Over/Under: Over 16.5 (-105) | Under 16.5 (-115)
Astros vs Rockies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on Houston, raising their odds to as short as -230.
- Over 16.5 runs opened across the US markets.
- Over 16 (-115) is the best number, while the rest of the markets have odds of Over 16.5 from -110 to -122.
- Under 16.5 runs have odds ranging from -110 to -122 across the US betting boards.
Astros vs Rockies trend
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 133 games (+4.65 Units / 3% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rockies
Astros vs Rockies game info
| Location: | Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, Mexico City, Mexico |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (0-0, 2.19 ERA) |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Austin Gomber (0-1, 4.32 ERA) |
Astros vs Rockies latest injuries
Astros vs Rockies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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