So there’s kind of a big, important-ish, lots-of-marbles game in college football this week. You might have heard a little about it. Covers checks in on that Big Ten clash and a bunch of other Week 9 games of note, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, also in Vegas
Penn State is undefeated on the field and pretty strong against the oddsmakers, as well, and hopes to stay that way in pursuit of a Big Ten title and perhaps a College Football Playoff berth. The Nittany Lions (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-13 trashing of Michigan as a 7.5-point home favorite. **video
Ohio State is absolutely in the Big Ten/CFP mix, too, but can’t afford its second loss of the season. The Buckeyes (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won five in a row SU, really pouring it on in the last four by scoring 54 points or more in all four outings. Urban Meyer’s troops are well-rested, coming off a bye week after dismantling Nebraska 56-14 as a 23.5-point road chalk.
“We’re seeing a lot of activity so far,” Bernanke said of action on this 3:30 p.m. ET clash. “As expected, the sharps are backing the favorite here, Ohio State. Five times more money on account has come in on the Buckeyes, where the public is backing Penn State, six times more money over-the-counter is taking the 6.5 points. And how could you blame them? An undefeated team catching 6.5, once it hits 7, you might see some (sharp) buyback.”
CG books, including shops along the Vegas Strip at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian, went to 7 Friday morning. William Hill, which operates dozens of books in the Las Vegas area among more than 100 across Nevada, has bounced between the opener of Buckeyes -6 and -6.5 all week.
“It’s good money in the pot, pretty good two-way action. The sharps are on Ohio State,” Bogdanovich said. “And plenty of Penn State money from the public. This will end up being the biggest-bet college football game of the day, for sure.”
Texas Christian is the last unbeaten team in the Big 12 and harbors its own CFP hopes. The Horned Frogs (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) have cashed in three of their last four, including last week’s 43-0 wipeout of Kansas laying 37.5 points at home.
However, Iowa State has already slayed one dragon this season, going on the road to knock off then-unbeaten Oklahoma three weeks ago. The Cyclones (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS) went to Texas Tech as a 7-point underdog last week and left with a stunning 31-13 outright victory.
“This is a sneaky good game,” Bogdanovich said. “Iowa State is one of the surprise teams, TCU is playing for that final four. A helluva game, and we’re dead-even to it right now. Iowa State is getting some respect.”
CG opened TCU -6.5 for this 3:30 p.m. ET start, and the line stuck there all week until late Friday morning, when it dialed up a notch to 7.
“Iowa State, since (quarterback) Jacob Park left, the team is suddenly on a 3-0 rampage right now,” Bernanke said. “Coming off last week’s big win against Texas Tech, very impressive, they’re getting a lot of love this week. Four times more money over the counter is actually taking the ‘dog here. The sharps might buy back at the +7. That’s the number they’re looking for with the home ‘dog.”
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators – Open: -14; Move: -13.5; Move: -13
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party used to always be worth raising a drink to, but doesn’t have quite as much zest this year, with Florida in the midst of another subpar season. The Gators (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a bye, after falling at home to Texas A&M 19-17 as a 3-point fave.
Georgia has plenty of incentive here as it aims to remain on a collision course with Alabama in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) also had a bye last week, after waxing Missouri 53-28 as a hefty 28.5-point home chalk.
Bernanke said that up through Thursday morning, action on this 3:30 p.m. ET game was almost laughable.
“A total of $20 on Florida against the spread, no one’s taking the moneyline,” he said. “That tells you what bettors think of Florida and their offense. It could be one of our biggest liabilities, needing Florida to cover against Georgia in a big rivalry game.”
CG got a little help throughout the day Friday, as Gators money helped the line dip to 13.5 in the morning and 13 in the afternoon.
No. 15 North Carolina State Wolfpack at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -7.5; Move: None
Notre Dame is legitimately in the conversation for the College Football Playoff, especially after its dominant performance in Week 8. The Fighting Irish (6-1 SU and ATS), whose only loss was a 20-19 home setback to Georgia, blasted Southern Cal 49-14 laying 4 points at home last week.
North Carolina State has quietly gone on a big tear, winning six in a row SU after a season-opening loss to South Carolina. The Wolfpack rolled at Pittsburgh last week, 35-17 giving 11.5 points.
“We haven’t been off 7.5,” Bogdanovich said of the line on this 3:30 p.m. ET meeting. “We’re dead-even to the game, which is good. But I’m sure we’ll need the ‘dog by kickoff. I wouldn’t be surprised if sharps are on the ‘dog, waiting for a higher number. They very well may get that number. The public bets what they saw last, and they saw Notre Dame beat the hell out of USC.”
Late Friday night, William Hill books actually ticked down to 7. CG opened Notre Dame -7.5 and went up to 8 early in the week, then back to 7.5 Thursday morning, and early Friday evening, the line dropped to 7.
“Sharps are definitely backing N.C. State. Seven times more money on account is on the Wolfpack,” Bernanke said. “Over-the-counter, they’re backing Notre Dame. Four times more money is on the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame off their big 49-14 thrashing of USC, I guess you can’t blame them. And N.C. State quietly, still mathematically alive for the playoff hunt with six straight wins.
“That’s a game we’ll keep our eye on, but it should be a good one. I don’t think it’ll be anything like USC-Notre Dame. This should be very competitive.”
No. 21 Southern California Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -3; Move: -3.5
Coming off an embarrassing loss at Notre Dame, Southern Cal now has to deal with host Arizona State and Pac-12 After Dark – where just about anything can happen and often does. The Trojans (6-2 SU, 1-7 ATS) trailed the Irish 28-0 at halftime and never got in it, tumbling 49-14 as a 4-point road pup.
Surprisingly, Arizona State could find itself on top of the Pac-12 South by day’s end. The Sun Devils (4-3 SU and ATS) have won three of their last four and cashed in all those games, including a stunning 30-10 upset of Utah last week as a 10-point road ‘dog.
“That’ll be a good game,” Bogdanovich said of this 10:45 p.m. ET clash. “We’re a little high on USC, which could be sharp money. A helluva game. By the time that kicks off, there’ll be plenty of money in the coffer.”
Butch Jones appears to be a dead coach walking after Tennessee put up just 16 total points over its last three games, all SU and ATS losses. The Vols (3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS) traveled to Alabama as a massive 36.5-point underdog last week and lost by a shade more than that, 45-7.
Kentucky (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) is coming off a blowout loss of the exact same score, losing 45-7 at Mississippi State catching 14 points. Apparently, that’s got bettors more concerned than the train wreck at Tennessee.
“Definitely the pros on Tennessee, which has two guys suspended, and they still bet ‘em,” Bogdanovich said, noting that running back John Kelly and linebacker Will Ignont won’t play in this 7:30 p.m. ET game. “Sharps are definitely on the Vols.”
In other games seeing notable movement and action at William Hill US books:
• Nebraska at Purdue: The Boilermakers opened -6, but Cornhuskers cash took the line to 5 by Friday. “There’s a little money for Nebraska, but no great shakes,” Bogdanovich. “A little bit on the ‘dog from the wiseguys.” Game time is 7:30 p.m. ET.
• Minnesota at Iowa: The Hawkeyes opened -8 and were down to 7 by midweek. “There was some sharp money on Minnesota, people taking above the touchdown,” Bogdanovich said. Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET.
• Michigan State at Northwestern: Sparty was bet up from -1 to -2.5 in a 3:30 p.m. ET contest. “We’re definitely high on the Spartans, so I’m assuming it’s sharp money,” Bogdanovich said.
• Mississippi State at Texas A&M: This 7:15 p.m. ET kick opened a pick ‘em and went to Mississippi State -2.5 on the road by Friday afternoon. “A little more on Mississippi State, sharps probably laying -1,” Bogdanovich said.
• Buffalo at Akron: After the Zips opened -3.5 and quickly went to -5, the Bulls got good news that quarterback Tyree Jackson (knee) is probable for this 11:30 a.m. ET contest. That helped lower this game to a pick ‘em by Friday night. “The Buffalo quarterback is gonna play, but I didn’t think it would move that much. It looks like an over-reaction. I don’t think he’s worth 4 points.”
• New Mexico at Wyoming: This line jumped the fence from the host Cowboys -3 to the visiting Lobos -1, in a 7:30 p.m. ET start. “Sharps are backing the Lobos, for whatever reason. It’s definitely sharp money that flipped it,” Bogdanovich said.
• Arkansas State at New Mexico State: Arkansas State opened -5.5 but was bet down to -3 by Thursday for this 8 p.m. ET meeting. “Bettors all over New Mexico State, and definitely all sharp money,” Bogdanovich said.
• San Jose State at Brigham Young: Nobody’s buying a dismal BYU squad that is 0-8 ATS this year, and not much better SU at 1-7. The Cougars opened -14 and were bet down to -11 against a lousy San Jose State squad (1-7 SU, 3-4 ATS). “BYU is hopeless. Sharps are all over San Jose for sure,” Bogdanovich said.
• Air Force at Colorado State: “Definitely the pros on Air Force, playing the ‘dog. But not a lot of money on the game,” Bogdanovich said. The Rams opened -13 and were at -10 by Thursday night for this 3 p.m. ET matchup.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
