The Pittsburgh Penguins host the Ottawa Senators in a Game 7 Thursday night, with a spot in the Stanley Cup finals on the line.
When it comes to these winner-take-all games, the old saying goes, just get to Game 7 and anything can happen - Game 7 is a coin flip. Well, that certainly seems to be the case in the NHL playoffs.
Since 2012, there have been 28 Game 7’s and underdogs actually have the slight edge at 14-13-1 straight up in those games. So Game 7’s truly seem to be a coin flip and being the favorite doesn’t really seem to matter. Unless, of course, you are betting totals.
It’s the Under that’s a profitable 16-7-5 in those 28 games, cashing 69.6 percent of the time. Let’s say that again, the Under cashes almost 70 percent of the time in Game 7’s.
This isn’t overly surprising, considering the way teams, usually very evenly matched, play so tight in these situations. Not to mention, one mistake could mean the end of your season and pulling out those golf clubs for the summer. In fact, over those 28 games, there has been an average of just 4.53 goals scored per game.
The total for Thursday’s game is an even 5.0 in what has been an up-and-down series.
Games 1 and 2 in Pittsburgh both went Under, with a total of four goals being scored. In Games 3 and 4 in Ottawa the scoring picked up with the Sens notching a 5-1 win in Game 3 before the Pens answered with a 3-2 win resulting in a 1-0-1 O/U. Game 5 we all know the Penguins thrashed the Sens by a score of 7-0, but Ottawa came back strong in with a 2-1 win in Game 6 notching another Under. So with an O/U count of 3-2-1 in this series there has been little consistency.
For Pittsburgh, Game 7’s are nothing new, especially in the Sidney Crosby era.
Since “Sid the Kid” became a Penguin, Pittsburgh has played in seven Game 7’s with the Under going 5-2 cashing 71.4 percent of the time. That includes going Under in four straight Game 7’s, with an average of 2.25 goals per game scored in those contests.
Ottawa meanwhile, hasn’t played in a Game 7 since 2012 when they faced off against the New York Rangers and guess what? That game went Under as well, as the Sens fell 2-1. The Senators have actually only played five Game 7’s in their team history, with an O/U tally of 2-2-1 (they’re also 0-5 in those games). However, in the two games that went Over there were only five goals scored in each, but it was the age of 4.5 totals. The average goals per game in those five games is still just 4.2.
So the Under is definitely trending in Game 7’s, but hey. It’s Game 7, anything can happen.
