The New York Yankees have reeled off five straight victories and will take aim at a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros when the two sides meet late Thursday afternoon.
With Marcus Stroman struggling a bit, might the Astros have a path to a much-needed victory? Or, is Ronel Blanco’s latest start a sign of things to come?
Let's dive into it with our in-depth Astros vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks on Thursday, May 9.
Astros vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-129 at BetRivers)
My analysis
New York Yankees starter Marcus Stroman has never really been one to walk many batters, which is why the latter stages of his career have been so perplexing. He struggled to a career-worst 9% walk rate last season, a number which improved a bit at the end of the season but which has quickly shot in the wrong direction this season. He’s now issued five walks in each of his last two outings, which has caused some of his excellence in pitching to contact to lose some of its luster.
Stroman’s .240 expected batting average is actually one of the best of his career to this point, and he’s continued to induce plenty of weak ground balls once again. Walks are really the big sticking point, which is why I’m fixated on the Houston Astros' poor plate discipline. Houston has walked in just 8.2% of plate appearances this season and is swinging at 48.4% of the pitches it’s seen, good for sixth in baseball while chasing at the third-highest rate.
Given those numbers, I think we will see a much more effective Stroman on Thursday. On the flip side, while Ronel Blanco has carried positive numbers with him all season long, it’s certainly been a bit more trying over the past three starts with seven walks and four home runs against him in 17 2/3 innings. He allows a ton of free passes and fly balls, which is a recipe for disaster in Yankee Stadium given New York’s patience and affinity for the longball in its hitter-friendly home park.
Astros vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 strikeouts
Alex Verdugo 2+ total bases
This is a juicy parlay, and one I feel very good about given the odds. I’m targeting Stroman’s strikeouts given what we’ve covered about Houston’s approach. It’s chasing out of the zone more than almost every team in the league, and while that hasn’t amounted in a ton of strikeouts, I do think with fewer walks that more strikeouts will in in the cards for Stroman in what’s expected to be a long outing.
The right-hander has hit this number in three of his seven starts so far in 2024, so it’s not as if it’s an unattainable number, and I do think the Astros are waffling a bit at the plate and searching for contact.
Then, I’m going to do something I love which is to target a ground-ball hitter versus a fly-ball pitcher. It tends to help out the hitters far more than the pitchers, and in Alex Verdugo’s case he’s putting 52% of his contact on the ground to lead the team. He’s one of the hottest hitters in the order, to boot, which has me salivating over this spot.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Yankees odds
Astros vs Yankees live odds
Astros vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 (-175) | New York -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Houston +110 | New York -135
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Astros vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line opened up at -130 and has moved towards the Yankees a couple of times down to -135.
- As you might expect, the Yankees are indeed a popular bet with 79% of the tickets and 74% of the money on New York.
- The Over has taken in a commanding 61% of the bets at DraftKings but just 51% of the handle, and we’ve seen this total dip from 9 to 8.
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Astros vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees
Astros vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 5:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, YES |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (3-0, 2.09 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (2-1, 3.41 ERA) |
Astros vs Yankees latest injuries
Astros vs Yankees weather
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