The San Diego Padres (-115) are one win back of Boston for most over the last 30 games, and I see them getting another in Cleveland this afternoon.
Let's break it all down with my Padres vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 16.
Who will win Padres vs Guardians today: Padres moneyline (-115)
The San Diego Padres are in strong form at the dish, ranking seventh in OPS and sixth in wOBA against right-handed pitching in August.
Tanner Bibee has consistently struggled to slow down hot offenses. He's posted a 5.82 ERA and allowed 1.79 HR/9 over 11 starts against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. RHP over the 10 games prior to squaring off.
The Padres slot third in OPS during that span, and will make it difficult for the Cleveland Guardians to keep up.
Back the Padres to -125.
COVERS INTEL: Bibee ranks in the 38th percentile in xERA, making him an unlikely candidate to slow down this Padres offense.
Padres vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-115)
Bibee frequently throws the cutter, and that should be trouble against this Padres lineup. They have absolutely feasted on the cutter this season, hitting .302 with a xwOBA of .385.
Isolating his three most-used pitches, the Padres are projected to start seven bats with a .340 OBP or higher — and one of the exceptions is the powerful Jackson Merrill.
The Guardians are likely to do some damage as well. Casey Mize is not in great form, posting a 4.94 SIERA while inducing ground balls at a lower rate than all of today’s projected starters in the last month.
Bet to -130.
Padres vs Guardians home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (+405)
Merrill is generating more power than anybody on the Padres roster.
He has hit .347 with a .429 ISO and impressive 22.5% barrel rate over the last 20 games. That has translated to five homers and 25 balls hit at least 300 feet, both of which lead the team.
Bibee sits in the 18th percentile in xSLG against left-handed hitters, and has allowed 11 more homers than to righties.
This matchup is favorable for Merrill, and I’d be comfortable betting him to +385.
- ML/RL bets: 79-73, -10.55 units
- Over/Under bets: 82-65-6, +8.44 units
Padres vs Guardians weather
The forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 80s with winds blowing southeast and some rain. The offenses should see a boost.
Padres vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Padres -115 | Guardians -105
- Run line: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Padres vs Guardians trend
San Diego has hit the moneyline in 16 of the last 21 games (+10.15 units, 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Guardians.
How to watch Padres vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, CleGuardians.TV |
| Padres starting pitcher | Casey Mize (4-7, 3.38 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (4-12, 3.99 ERA) |
Padres vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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