There are 15 games on the MLB odds board, headlined by a marquee matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Read on as I'm backing a Dodgers slugger and a pair of pitchers with my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks for Friday, May 3.
MLB props for May 3
- Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 earned runs (-110 at Caesars)
- Martin Perez Under 2.5 earned runs (+100 at DraftKings)
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
Picks made on 5-3 at 3 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Bet on Blanco
Ronel Blanco is having a breakout season with the Houston Astros, pitching to a 1.65 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP through five starts. Blanco is currently in the Top-10 percentile of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, and his expected ERA sits at just 2.31.
Today he faces off against a struggling Seattle Mariners lineup that is plating just 2.4 runs per game over the last five contests. The Mariners are 25th in the majors in OPS at .649, and while that number is somewhat suppressed by playing at home in a pitcher-friendly park, their OPS of .686 on the road isn't much better.
The O/U for Blanco's earned runs today is set at 2.5, a number he has gone below in all five of his starts this year. Back Blanco to have another strong performance and take the Under on his earned runs allowed.
Ronel Blanco prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-110 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Southpaw Shines
Through six starts, Martin Perez has a 2.86 ERA and is holding opponents to a slugging percentage of just .348, and tonight features another excellent matchup for the Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander.
For years, the Colorado Rockies have been abysmal on offense away from the thin air of Coors Field. This season, they are slugging just .334 on the road while averaging 3.50 runs per game.
Colorado is faring worse against southpaws like Perez, and their lineup is filled with right-handed hitters who tend to have a tougher time with the outfield dimensions at PNC Park.
Martin Perez prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Free Guy
Despite seeing a steep decline in his power numbers this season, Freddie Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball.
Freeman's career numbers are more indicative of his future performance than the small sample size so far this season, and his slow start gives us nice value on the Over 1.5 total bases for him tonight. Keep in mind that the Atlanta Braves are sending Charlie Morton to the mound, and the Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman has a history of lighting up the veteran.
Freeman has gone 10-for-20 against Morton in his career, including three doubles and three homers. The left-handed Freeman has typically mashed against righties like Morton (.542 slugging percentage in his career), and he should see his power numbers get back to normal soon.
Freddie Freeman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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