Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Arenado Mashes vs Mets

Prop bet #1: Pederson gives Montas problems

It’s been a bit of a slow start to the season for the reigning National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks. Still, they’ll try to get things back on track when they open a three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night at the Great American Ballpark.

This offseason the D-backs went out and bolstered their lineup after losing the World Series to the hard-hitting Texas Rangers. That included bringing in veteran slugger Joc Pederson and that looks like a good move through the first month of the season.

Pederson is hitting .297 with a .933 OPS so far this season and he’s primed to have another good day at the dish when he digs in against Reds starter Frankie Montas. 

The Reds’ Opening Day starter hasn’t pitched since April 21, when he was pulled from the first inning after getting hit in the forearm with a comebacker to the mound.

Montas had been pitching OK prior to that. The right-hander owns a 4.14 expected ERA while surrendering a .243 opponent expected batting average, both of which are below league average. Not surprisingly, left-handed hitters have done most of the damage, getting to Montas for a .289 batting average and a .839 OPS.

Pederson has been consistent throughout the season. He’s gone Over 1.5 total bases seven times in his last 11 starts and in five of his last six overall.

Joc Pederson prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Losing effort for Lugo

This may just me being stubborn, but I’m still not believing what I’m seeing with Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo. 

The veteran right-hander has always used his vast arsenal of pitches to get batters out, but he hasn’t been overly effective for a while. Until this season. Lugo is pitching to a 1.60 ERA over his first seven starts with the Royals, having allowed a combined eight earned runs in those games.

But there is some evidence that joining me in this fade of Lugo is a solid play when he takes the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight.

For starters, he’s been a little lucky. Lugo’s expected ERA is a much more characteristic 4.16 while surrendering a .257 opponent expected batting average. Those numbers rank in the 41st and 33rd percentile, respectively. 

Lugo also doesn’t strike out many batters (17.6%) and pitches to contact. That brings us to today’s opponent.

More than half of Lugo’s starts this season have come against the Chicago White Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays, and the Detroit Tigers. All of those teams stink at hitting against right-handed pitchers, ranking in the bottom third of the bigs in wRC+.

The Brewers ain’t that. They rank second in OPS and third in batting average and wRC+ vs. righties this season. Things haven’t gone as smoothly in matchups vs. similar offenses for Lugo. He allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings in an 11-2 win against the Houston Astros back on April 10, while his worst start of the season came on April 21 vs. the Baltimore Orioles when he surrendered four runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Our Covers Prop Projections have Lugo at 16.3 outs, so despite Lugo having gone Over 17.5 outs a lot this season, there is really good value on the Under today at this price.

Seth Lugo prop: Under 17.5 outs (+140 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Arenado aces Mets

To put it lightly, scoring runs has been a problem for the St. Louis Cardinals this season. The only team in baseball that has scored fewer runs than the Cardinals heading into Tuesday’s action is the lowly Chicago White Sox. That ain’t good. 

There are several key culprits, which include the dramatic fall off of Paul Goldschmidt. But someone you can’t blame is Nolan Arenado. The All-Star third baseman is trying to shoulder the load for the Cards. He is hitting .286 and 19 runs batted in for the season and is starting to heat up.

Arenado has seven hits in his last 19 at-bats (.368) with two doubles, a dinger, and six RBIs, and I like his chances of keeping that going when he digs in against New York Mets starter Jose Butto.

The 26-year-old right-hander has given the Mets rotation a boost with a 2.57 ERA, however, he could be in for a little regression soon with an expected ERA sitting at an even 4.00 while ranking in the 17th percentile in walk rate. Butto has made five starts this season. Three have been excellent, and two have been shaky. One of those was against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The other? Against this same Cardinals team.

Butto allowed four runs on four hits and three walks in 5 2/3 innings back on April 26. Butto’s propensity to lose command of his pitches can result in a lot of baserunners. With Arenado locked in at the moment, I like him to take advantage of this matchup and drive in another run tonight.

Nolan Arenado prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 at bet365)