The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves wrap up a two-game set at Truist Park tonight. The Braves send long-time Boston starter Chris Sale to the mound to face his former team for the first time after Atlanta took Game 1 on Tuesday night.
See why my Red Sox vs. Braves predictions are backing Sale & Co. to win again with my MLB picks for May 8.
Red Sox vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Braves -1.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Atlanta Braves are starting Chris Sale who played six seasons with the Boston Red Sox before getting traded in December. Sale is a seven-time All-Star but his 2020 season was wiped out by Tommy John surgery and the ensuing years have been injury-plagued. However, he finally looks healthy and has a 3.44 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP through six starts.
The Red Sox respond with Nick Pivetta, who was off to a terrific start this season, allowing just one run through his first two outings before an elbow injury sent him to the IL.
Although Pivetta has a sterling 0.82 ERA, that's based on a small sample size of just 11 innings that came inside pitcher-friendly ballparks against two of the worst offensive teams in the AL. His expected ERA is 3.43, which is closer to his 4.39 ERA over the previous three years. He also struggled with his control in a rehab start at Triple-A Worcester last Thursday.
On the other hand, Sale has an xERA of just 2.81 and ranks in the top fifth percentile in average exit velocity and the top 20th in hard-hit rate, groundball rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
While Atlanta's offense has been in a bit of a rut, this stacked lineup is simply too talented to be held in check for long. The Braves lead the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity while ranking fourth in barrel rate.
The Red Sox have been far more inconsistent at the dish, ranking 17th in hard-hit rate, 18th in average exit velocity, and 10th in barrel rate. They are also 15th in slugging percentage (.382) against lefties like Sale. Expect positive regression from Atlanta's lineup and negative regression from Pivetta — who may be on a pitch count in his return from injury — and back the Braves to win by multiple runs.
Red Sox vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves -1.5
Chris Sale Over 7.5 strikeouts
Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 runs
Sale is coming off a sensational start against the Mariners where he fanned nine batters in just five innings of work. He is in the top fifth percentile in chase rate while ranking in the top 20th in strikeout rate. The Red Sox are just 27th in the majors in strikeout rate (25.7%) with that number ballooning to 29.5% versus southpaws.
Ronald Acuna Jr. was named 2023 NL MVP when he scored an incredible 149 runs — the second-most in a season since 1950. He is fourth in the majors with 31 runs this year and since we're expecting the Braves to win by multiple runs here, it makes sense to target the All-Star leadoff man.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Braves odds
Red Sox vs Braves live odds
Red Sox vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-125) | Atlanta -1.5 (+105)
- Moneyline: Boston +155 | Atlanta -190
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Red Sox vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has moved Atlanta's line from -190 to -205 while the total has ticked down from 9 to 8.5.
- Boston is 19-17 and that winning record is due to the team boasting the lowest ERA (2.65) in the majors.
- The Braves have an OPS of just .557 over the last 15 days although they were leading the majors with a .828 OPS before that drought.
- Both of these sides have been cashing Unders with the Red Sox 4-15 O/U in their last 19 games and the Braves going 11-1-1 to the Under in their last 13.
Red Sox vs Braves trend
The Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves
Red Sox vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, BSSO |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (1-1, 0.82 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Chris Sale (4-1, 3.44 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Braves latest injuries
Red Sox vs Braves weather
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