With their first series win of the season bagged, the Miami Marlins will seek their first 3-game sweep and win streak of the year when they host the Colorado Rockies on Thursday.
Miami’s back-to-back wins over Colorado have lifted it out of the National League cellar, now occupied by the 7-23 Rockies — no surprise the visitors are +140 moneyline underdogs in the MLB odds Thursday.
Can Colorado pull the Marlins back down to the bottom with them on getaway day? Read below for my free Rockies vs Marlins predictions and MLB picks for May 2.
Rockies vs Marlins prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Colorado’s pitching has been staggeringly bad through the first 30 games of the season. The Rockies own an MLB-worst 6.00 team ERA. To put that into context, only the last-place White Sox are remotely close to them at a 5.15 ERA, and the 28 other teams under five.
Teams are hitting a blistering .294 against Rockies pitching, and they have struck out just 187 batters. Every other team in baseball has at least 233 Ks or more.
That’s a big reason why Colorado is mired in a four-game losing skid, with just three wins across its last 16 games.
Mostly-reliever Peter Lambert will make his eighth appearance and just his second start of the season. He was bombed in his only other start, lasting just three innings, giving up six hits and six earned runs in a 10-2 loss to Seattle.
If there is a safe landing spot, though, Miami’s lineup might be it. The Marlins are hitting just .223 as a team, the sixth-worst mark in the bigs. They’re also Bottom 3 in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS.
It’s not like their pitching is any good, it’s just not as shockingly bad as Colorado’s. Miami ranks Bottom 5 in ERA at 4.80, while opponents are batting .260 against them, ranking 28th. Control is an issue, as the Marlins pitchers have issued 132 walks, the most free passes in baseball.
I guess someone had to be a favorite in this one, but no one should feel confident taking the Marlins as a favorite.
This is a team that, prior to the Rockies series, had dropped seven straight — the second time Miami has had a losing streak of seven or more in the young season. And the Marlins’ current back-to-back wins are their first consecutive wins in 2024.
Instead, let’s target the total. The Rockies and Marlins are inside the Bottom 7 in runs scored this year, with Miami putting up 3.58 runs per game, and Colorado at 3.86.
The Under is 7-2 in the last 10 head-to-heads (with no betting lines available for their April 30 game), with the Under hitting in the last four the total was available.
Bet that trend to continue Thursday.
Rockies vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Edward Cabrera Over 6.5 strikeouts
Bryan De La Cruz Over 0.5 RBIs
The Marlins are handing the ball to Edward Cabrera, who is looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the year. He lasted just 4 1/3 innings against the Nationals, surrendering five earned runs on four hits, while walking four in a 10-2 loss.
It was his lowest strikeout total of the year, fanning just four batters. He had struck out 17 combined over his first two starts of the year.
Why should you be targeting Over 6.5 strikeouts Thursday? Cabrera has crossed this total in each of his two career starts against the Rockies, and Colorado has struck out the sixth-most times this season, just a couple short of 300 whiffs.
He went nine games without a run driven in, but after a 1-for-4 outing and an RBI in Miami’s 4-1 win over the Rockies Wednesday, Bryan De La Cruz now has an RBI in back-to-back games.
He gets his RBIs in bunches: the last time De La Cruz had consecutive games with runs driven in, he went on a run of seven straight games. If Lambert struggles in his second start of the year, De La Cruz is a good bet to be in the middle of the scoring action.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockies vs Marlins odds
Rockies vs Marlins live odds
Rockies vs Marlins opening odds
- Run line: Colorado +1.5 (-140) | Miami -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Colorado +145 | Miami -170
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Rockies vs Marlins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockies have lost 10 straight vs. NL East opponents.
- Miami has won three straight against Colorado.
- Colorado has gone Under the total in four of its last five outings.
Rockies vs Marlins trend
Miami has won just two of 11 games this season as betting favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Marlins
Rockies vs Marlins game info
| Location: | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain, Bally Florida |
| Rockies starting pitcher: | Peter Lambert (2-1, 4.67 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher: | Edward Cabrera (1-1, 5.28 ERA) |
Rockies vs Marlins latest injuries
Rockies vs Marlins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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