The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees begin a three-game series on Friday night. The Yankees are 20-13 but have dropped three of their last eight games while the Tigers are 7-3 in their previous 10 contests.
I'm looking to back the latest Bronx Bomber with my MLB picks for this showdown. Here are my best free Tigers vs. Yankees predictions for May 3.
Tigers vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto 2+ total bases (+145 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Juan Soto has taken to the Big Apple like a duck to water. The four-time Silver Slugger began his MLB career with some incredible numbers but saw his stats dip the last two years due in part to playing his home games at run-suppressing Petco Park.
Now that he's playing for the Yankees, he's back to looking like one of the best hitters in the world and is fifth in the majors with 73 total bases. Soto is slashing .331/.441/.589 this season, ranking third in hard hit rate, second in adjusted exit velocity, and fifth in barrel rate.
The Tigers are sending sophomore Reese Olson to the mound tonight, and while he's put up some solid numbers, there are reasons to expect regression. Olson had a 3.99 ERA while holding opponents to a slugging percentage of just .373 in 103 2/3 innings last. However, his xERA and xSLG were significantly worse at 4.73 and .458, respectively. Olson has been sharp in three of five starts this year, but he was shaky against the Pirates and Twins and sits in the bottom 20th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Soto also has the platoon advantage against Olson, and he has slugged .560 against righties in his career with that number sitting at .612 this year. It's a bit surprising to see most books set the O/U on Soto's total bases at 0.5 tonight (with the Over juiced at about -165) and with THE BAT X projecting 1.6 total bases for him, betting the 2+ total bases milestone at plus money is tough to pass up.
Tigers vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Yankees Team Total Over 3.5
Riley Greene Over 0.5 hits
The Yankees are coming off a four-game series in Baltimore where they scored a total of just six runs. However, they're still averaging 4.67 runs per game and are eighth in the majors in OPS (.729) and ninth in barrel rate, so expect a bounce-back performance at home.
Riley Greene has been Detroit's most productive batter and he ranks in the Top 5th percentile of the majors in barrel rate and the Top 10th percentile in xwOBA. He has picked up at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tigers vs Yankees odds
Tigers vs Yankees live odds
Tigers vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Detroit +130 | New York -155
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Tigers vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The total has ticked down from 8.5 to 8, which is likely due to poor hitting from both sides lately.
- 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge is slashing just .197/.331/.393, but his 54.2% hard hit rate indicates that positive regression is on the horizon.
- The Tigers are 23rd in the majors in OPS (.666), but they are a respectable 12th in barrel rate and 14th in hard hit rate.
- New York is starting Marcus Stroman, who pitched extremely well in his first two starts this year but has a 5.95 ERA with an OBA of .299 in his last four outings.
Tigers vs Yankees trend
The Tigers have won 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Yankees
Tigers vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Detroit, YES |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Reese Olson (0-4, 3.18 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (2-1, 3.70 ERA) |
Tigers vs Yankees latest injuries
Tigers vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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