Two teams heading in opposite directions meet tonight as the Minnesota Twins, winners of 15 of their last 17, open up a three-game set in Toronto vs. the Blue Jays, who have dropped 10 of their last 14.
The Jays are sitting as a slight home favorite in the MLB odds, which has a lot to do with how well Yusei Kikuchi has been pitching. But with the second-worst run differential in the AL, a broken bullpen, and an offense that’s about to get its coach fired, I’m taking Joe Ryan and the Twins in the series opener in my Twins vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 10.
Twins vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Twins moneyline (-103 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Betting against the Toronto Blue Jays has been profitable this year and even more of late as they’ve dropped 10 of their last 14 games while only the White Sox have scored fewer runs in the American League this year.
Even with an improved Yusei Kikuchi on the mound tonight, there are too many weaknesses on this roster right now and its one to bet against. Toronto is facing a Minnesota Twins team that’s 15-2 SU in its last 17 matches and also is sending a great starter to the mound in Joe Ryan. There are too many reasons to bet the Twins on the moneyline at -103 tonight.
Kikuchi has been one of the few bright spots on this team but he can’t plate runs. It’s just a sad state of offense in Toronto which has the worst wRC+ over the last 14 days of all AL teams. Bo Bichette is hitting 0.091 over the last 12 games and has been demoted to the sixth spot while George Springer is also hard on the eyes. With Ryan sporting a 1.01 WHIP on the season, Toronto will struggle to string hits together and cross the plate.
The Twins handle left-handed pitching well, ranking second in the AL in wRC+ vs. southpaws. Kikuchi projects for 89 pitches from THE BAT and just over 15 outs. That’s going to leave plenty of outs for a Toronto bullpen that is missing its best arm in Yimi Garcia and currently sports the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.23.
The Jays can lose in more ways than the Twins. Kikuchi could finally have a bad start as he is due, the offense could fail to score again, or the bullpen could implode, which is on brand. It’s amazing that bettors can get a Ryan start vs. the Jays at near even money.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bo Bichette Under 0.5 Hits (+195 at PROLINE+)
There is nothing wrong with picking on a man when he is down in the betting world and that's the case tonight with Bo Bichette. He's hitting .091 over his last 12 games and has gone hitless in eight of those dozen matches. He's hitting sixth in the order which means fewer plate appearances, and his struggles have become very mental, which is not an easy thing to shake vs. a great pitcher in Ryan.
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Twins vs Blue Jays odds
Twins vs Blue Jays live odds
Twins vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-200) | Toronto -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -105 | Toronto -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100)| Under 8 (-120)
Twins vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Under has seen the most movement with some books opening at a flat 8 and moving to 7.5 and as low as -110 aside.
- The Jays were off yesterday so their bullpen is all available, which doesn't mean much these days, Minnesota has a Top 10 bullpen and uses a closer-by-committee approach. There are four ready arms tonight to shut down the Jays in the late innings and arms that have all been trusted in high-leverage situations.
- The Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI).
- Despite recording 18 outs in each of his five starts this year and pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA, the Blue Jays are 2-3 SU when Kikuchi starts as they're giving him just 3.2 runs of support per game.
Twins vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have only hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 66 games at home (-22.60 Units / -21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Blue Jays
Twins vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 5-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, SN1 |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Joe Ryan (1-2, 3.54 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 2.72 ERA) |
Twins vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Twins vs Blue Jays weather
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