The Minnesota Timberwolves are somehow up 2-0 over Denver before two other second-round series have even started. That scheduling quirk may influence the general NBA Playoffs discourse right now, but it obviously has no impact on how I approach my NBA picks for tonight's matchups.
Both games hold value, and if wanting to make your night more interesting, combining that value can create a healthy payout. But remember, a lower bet will still have a healthy return, and given these two games on May 7 are entirely uncorrelated, a lower bet is prudent.
NBA playoffs parlay picks May 7
- Mitchell Under 27.5 points + Gafford Over 8.5 points + Mavs/Thunder Under 218 (+614 at DraftKings)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Tuesday
NBA parlay pick
Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 points
Daniel Gafford Over 8.5 points
Mavs/Thunder Under 218
Donovan Mitchell had to carry a massive workload just to get the Cleveland Cavaliers past the Magic, scoring 44% of Cleveland’s points in the final two games of that seven-game series while taking 38.7% of the shots. For good measure, he handed out nine assists while at it — though also committed five turnovers.
The Cavs need Mitchell at his absolute best to have a chance against the Boston Celtics, and the C's know that. They'll devote their defense to him tonight, and that should be particularly effective as long as Mitchell is battling a balky knee.
No one should expect him to shoulder as much of the burden as he did to top the Magic, especially while he is limping and facing the second-best defense in the NBA.
Similarly, do not expect Daniel Gafford to struggle as much in this series as he did against the Clippers. One of the Dallas Mavericks’ prized trade-deadline acquisitions, Gafford could hardly play against Los Angeles. His rim-running offense simply did not match up well with their wing-oriented defense.
Gafford averaged 21.5 minutes and 11.2 points in his 29 regular-season games with Dallas, taking 6.4 shots per game. He was a genuine part of the rotation. Against the Clippers, Gafford’s averages fell to 18.2 minutes, 6.2 points, and 4.7 shots per game. That was an anomaly of a series, though one that knocked down his player props for the moment.
Against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Gafford’s physical presence should be a Mavericks’ asset. Oklahoma City’s greatest weakness is size on the interior. Chet Holmgren is an excellent defender, but he hasn't yet added enough muscle to handle physical play on the inside.
Gafford can weaken that defense for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to then exploit. This series could feature an influx in Gafford’s minutes compared to the regular season, the exact opposite of last round.
Pairing a player points prop Over with the Under on the Mavericks-Thunder total escalates this parlay’s payout, but it shouldn’t when that player is Gafford. Betting on the Over 8.5 points is hardly demanding a high-scoring game.
Unders have cashed in seven of the 10 Game 1s so far this postseason, teams feeling each other out before dialing up adjustments.
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Today's NBA same-game parlay picks
Our betting experts have searched through today's NBA odds to find your best SGP bets for both games on Tuesday's playoff slate:
Cavaliers vs Celtics same-game parlay (SGP)
Donovan Mitchell Under 27.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Under 2.5 made threes
Cavaliers team total Under 98.5 points
Obviously, every leg of this same-game parlay is correlated, but they are correlated so heavily, a +276 payout is still of value.
Mitchell shot 13-of-52 from beyond the arc in the first round, including 5-of-17 in the final two games. Even when he was putting up points, Mitchell struggled from deep. He hit at least three 3-pointers in just two games of the series.
Cleveland fell short of this team total in five of those seven games. And, again, that was against the Magic. Orlando is good with a promising future, but its defense isn't on Boston’s level.
This is a parlay that would have cashed three out of seven times in the last round, so odds of +276 are delightful.
Read Douglas Farmer's full Cavaliers vs Celtics predictions.
Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)
Dereck Lively II Over 6.5 rebounds
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 threes
Mavericks first-half +2
Lively gets extra run, and the Mavs defensive strategy leaves him in prime rebound range, with my number closer to eight boards tonight.
Washington won’t be attacking the rim with Holmgren protecting the paint. He’ll settle for perimeter looks and knock down at least two triples with OKC focusing defense on Doncic.
The Thunder run the risk of being a little flat out of the gate, given their extended break between series. Dallas still has playoff pressure coursing through its veins and will give OKC a run in the opening 24 minutes.
Read Jason Logan's full Mavericks vs Thunder predictions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
