Best NBA Player Props Today: Timberwolves Need Reid

Prop bet #1: Haliburton Heaves

Indiana Pacers star point guard Tyrese Haliburton is having a tough time cracking the Milwaukee Bucks defense, putting up scoring efforts of just nine and 12 points, respectively, in the first two games. 

However, he did find success from beyond the arc in Game 2, knocking down three of seven shots from 3-point range. Those attempts are much more in line with Haliburton’s season activity from outside, averaging 2.8 makes on 7.8 attempts from distance.

Haliburton’s scoring props have sunk in this series, dipping from 19.5 points to as low as 16.5 for tonight’s Game 3. Yet, player projections remain optimistic he’ll find his form on Friday. 

I’m not convinced it will be that simple, but I do like Haliburton to take what Milwaukee is giving him, and that’s those long-range looks. Those same player forecasts call for three triples from him in Game 3.

His Over/Under on 3-pointers makes is at 2.5 with the Over priced as low as -110 in the Tyrese Haliburton odds. If Haliburton does have a breakout game on the score sheet, you can be sure plenty of those points will come from 3-point land.

Tyrese Haliburton prop: Over 2.5 made 3s (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Naz is Like…

Newly-crowned NBA Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid is coming off a quiet showing in the Minnesota Timberwolves' Game 2 win over the Phoenix Suns. Following 12 points in 19 minutes in Game 1, Reid finished Tuesday’s tilt with only five points on 1-for-5 shooting, including an 0-for-3 night from deep, in 17 minutes. 

It was just the sixth time in the past 26 games that the 6-foot-9 forward failed to crack double-figures on the scoresheet, a trend helped along by Karl-Anthony Towns’ late-season injury. And that’s where we find Reid’s scoring total for tonight’s trip to the desert, with most operators at 9.5 points O/U. However, some books are dealing a low of 8.5 O/U with the Over priced at -132 as of Friday morning.

Reid, who averages 13.5 points over 24 minutes per game on the season, has seen less floor time in the first two games of the series. That has a lot to do with the T-Wolves dominance, holding leads of 19 and 27 points, respectively, in those contests.

With Game 3 in Phoenix and Minnesota sitting as a 4-point road underdog, game script says the Timberwolves need to put their best foot forward. That means leaning into their top reserve for maximum minutes off the bench.

Player forecasts for Reid range from a low of 9.7 points to a ceiling closer to 14, with my number sitting at 11.3 versus the Suns tonight. Given that projection, the Over 8.5 points in the Naz Reid odds should be priced around -210 and the Over 9.5 would be in the -151 range.

Naz Reid prop: Over 8.5 points (-132 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Board Man Gets Played

Kawhi Leonard’s knee is the center of attention in this conference quarterfinal showdown between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks. 

After sitting out Game 1 due to knee soreness, Leonard played 35 minutes in Game 2 – his first action in three weeks. Leonard looked rusty, shooting 7-for-17 from the field for 15 points. He did contribute in other ways though, including seven rebounds.

His status for Game 3 in Dallas is officially questionable, but it sounds like L.A. will have its star in action. Head coach Tyronn Lue was cagey about Leonard’s usage in talking with the press on Thursday, saying, “I’m not sure if the minutes will go up but he feels good.”

Feels good is enough for me, at least as it pertains to Leonard’s work on the glass. 

Player projections forecast between 33 and 38 minutes for Kawhi and call for 6+ rebounds in that time, with a ceiling closer to seven boards. My initial number comes out to 6.3 rebounds in those modest minutes for Game 3.

His rebounding total for tonight is 5.5 O/U with the Over jumping from -115 to -142 at some sharper sportsbooks on Friday morning. Shopping around, you can find that same offering with the Over as low as -120 in the Kawhi Leonard odds.

Kawhi Leonard prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)