The NFL rumbles into November in Week 8, and Monday Night Football gives us one hell of a main event.
The Chicago Bears roll into the Emerald City to preview a possible NFC title game against the Seattle Seahawks.
A matchup this marvelous can’t be contained to just sides and totals. My Bears vs. Seahawks prop picks dig into the individual efforts, giving you my three best NFL picks for Nov. 2.
Best Bears vs Seahawks props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Sam Darnold 2+ passing touchdowns |
50% |
 Luther Burden III 50+ receiving yards |
54% |
| Cooper Kupp 3+ receptions |
56% |
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Prop pick #1: Sam Darnold 2+ passing touchdowns
The return to health for the running backs room leads me to believe the Seattle Seahawks will hammer the ball on the ground inside the red zone on Monday. And that may be the case.
However, getting Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price back in the mix pumps fuel into a Seahawks’ play-action offense that’s been running on fumes for the first two months.
Last season, under Klint Kubiak, Sam Darnold was benefiting greatly from that misdirection. This year, the PA playbook hasn’t had the same punch under Brian Fleury, since defenses don't have to worry about the run.
The Chicago Bears’ blitz-happy schemes have been gashed by play action (9.9 yards against per attempt), and those fake runs are also turning down the heat on Chicago’s pass rush.
Darnold is a notably better quarterback against man coverage, which the Bears run at the highest rate in the league.
I see him pulling it back and rolling out to find receivers in the red zone on play-action passes. His TD pass projections sit as high as 1.73 on MNF.
Prop pick #2: Luther Burden III 50+ receiving yards
The Bears' ground game is still missing pieces, and Caleb Williams could find himself dropping back more against this zone-heavy Seahawks secondary.
Seattle runs the highest rate of zone coverage in the land, so Williams will look to Luther Burden III.
PFF rates him as one of the best WRs vs. zone coverage, averaging almost 15 yards per reception when sitting in those seams.
Burden had an explosive Week 7, with 130 yards on four catches. He won't hit those home runs against the Seattle zone, but he can slice and dice his way to 50+ yards.
Projections all sit north of 50 receiving yards with a ceiling just shy of 60 yards. My number comes out to 56+ receiving yards for Burden in prime time.
Prop pick #3: Cooper Kupp 3+ receptions
Darnold likes playing against man coverage, and so does veteran WR Cooper Kupp.
While he’s not the same threat he used to be, Kupp is the Seahawks’ second-best WR vs. man, according to PFF, and moves up the depth chart with speedster Rashid Shaheed out of action.
In the past three games, Kupp has posted snap percentages of 65%, 85%, and 81% — a jump in snap rate from his first four games.
Last week, he caught both passes his way on a night in which Seattle threw the ball at the third-lowest rate among all Week 7 offenses. The game prior, Kupp drew 10 targets for five catches at Denver and had two grabs on three targets vs. San Francisco in Week 5.
Game models range from 2.6 receptions to a ceiling of four, with most forecasts coming in at 3.0 or higher. My number sits at 3.2 catches from Kupp on Monday night.
- Prop picks: 28-17, +9.74 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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