There are plenty of pointing fingers when it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs’ 0-2 start to the NFL season.
One sore spot has been a lack of punch from the Kansas City ground game.
Entering Week 3, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the team’s leading rusher by a wide margin. That’s not something KC can sustain — nor does it want to.
Head coach Andy Reid spent extra time this week tightening the bolts on the rushing attack, and that has me looking at running back Isiah Pacheco to produce in Sunday night’s showdown with the New York Giants.
Find out more in my Chiefs vs. Giants predictions and NFL picks for September 21.
Chiefs vs Giants prediction
Chiefs vs Giants Best bet: Isiah Pacheco Over 41.5 rushing yards (-114)
Through two outings, the Kansas City Chiefs' run game has been rotten. Beyond Patrick Mahomes making plays with his legs, Isiah Pacheco and backfield mate Kareem Hunt have amassed only 47 yards each.
The media asked coach Reid about kick-starting Pacheco and the rushing attack earlier this week, and he simply said, “Yeah, we can do a better job there. We'll get that thing going.”
Luckily, the New York Giants could be the perfect opponent to “get that thing going” against.
New York enters Week 3 among the bottom run-stopping units in the land. It is 23rd in run stop win rate at ESPN, 31st in both EPA allowed per handoff and success rate allowed per run, and is allowing 5.9 yards per carry to rival runners.
Pacheco is still seeing the bulk of snaps as Kansas City’s RB1, but has come in well short of his rushing yards total in the opening two games.
His rushing yards bar was at 42.5 O/U versus the L.A. Chargers in Week 1 (25 rushing yards) and 45.5 O/U against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday (22 rushing yards).
The Chiefs found themselves playing from behind in the second half of both of those contests, forcing the offense to pass more and abandon the run (KC has run on just 37.39% of snaps, with Mahomes running 13 times).
Sunday night’s spread is set at Chiefs -5.5, setting up a game script in which Kansas City is playing with a lead in the final two frames and depending on the rushing attack to chew up clock.
That uptick in action for Pacheco gives us great buyback value on his rushing total, especially with that market now sliding below 40 yards. Projections, however, are more optimistic in his Week 3 workload.
Forecasts for Pacheco range from 42 to 45 yards on the ground Sunday night, and I strongly feel there is a much higher ceiling, considering coaching plans, opponent, and game script.
Chiefs vs Giants SNF same-game parlay
Pacheco will see more carries based on the playcalling and game script versus a bad Giants run stop.
New York has allowed three rushing touchdowns through two games, and Pacheco will get the push in the red zone.
Desperation and defense powers Kansas City to its first win and ATS victory in East Rutherford.
Chiefs vs Giants SGP
- Isiah Pacheco Over 41.5 rushing yards
- Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
- Chiefs -5.5
Our big-ticket SGP: Ground Control
Pacheco’s projections are as high as 45 yards, and I believe there’s a higher ceiling.
It’s been a while since Pacheco has found paydirt. This G-Men defense could be the team to snap that skid.
The Chiefs will face a much softer defense from the Giants and cover this 5.5-point spread.
Russell Wilson will have trouble against Spags’ aggressive stop unit, and the Chiefs can dink-and-dump their way down the field, slowing down scoring.
Chiefs vs Giants SGP
- Isiah Pacheco Over 41.5 rushing yards
- Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown
- Chiefs -5.5
- Under 44.5
Chiefs vs Giants odds
- Spread: Kansas City -5.5 (-110) | New York +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kansas City -275 | New York +225
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs Giants betting trend to know
Kansas City is 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in non-conference road games since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Giants.
How to watch Chiefs vs Giants
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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