The Green Bay Packers had their best offensive outing of the season, winning their second straight game last week, while the Dallas Cowboys had their worst in a tough Thursday night home loss to Tampa Bay.
My Cowboys vs. Packers prop picks and NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 18 look at which Packers performances can be repeated and which Cowboys might bounce back.
Meanwhile, Jason Logan is fading both teams' passing defenses in his Cowboys vs. Packers predictions.
Best Cowboys vs Packers props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Christian Watson 80+ receiving yards |
47% |
 Dak Prescott 1+ interceptions |
51% |
| Matthew Golden 1+ touchdowns |
38% |
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Prop pick #1: Christian Watson 80+ receiving yards
The Dallas Cowboys will be down at least one cornerback and maybe two. Cobie Durant has been ruled out with a hamstring problem, while Ameer Speed and Joey Porter Jr. are questionable.
That weakens a defense that is second-to-last in the NFL in yardage and a pass defense that ranks 21st.
Christian Watson has been Jordan Love’s favorite target in a breakout season. He’s topped 95 receiving yards in three of five games for the Green Bay Packers this year.
Watson is averaging eight targets a week and is averaging more than five catches. The Cowboys' pass-rush win rate is 31st in the league, so Love will have time to find Watson.
Prop pick #2: Dak Prescott 1+ interceptions
Neither team has been able to run the ball so far this season.
The Cowboys rank 30th in the NFL in rushing offense, and the Packers are dead last. That means both teams will have plenty of passing opportunities. Dak Prescott had two interceptions against previously winless Tampa Bay last week and has three picks on the year.
The Packers’ pass defense ranks 14th in the NFL in EPA per play, but they’ve moved up from 26th after Week 3. They forced the Bears into three interceptions, five total turnovers, and a quarterback change last week.
The Green Bay pass rush is also strong, ranking fifth in overall pressure rate.
Prop pick #3: Matthew Golden 1+ Touchdowns
If not for teammate Christian Watson, Matthew Golden would be getting more attention for his breakout season at receiver.
He’s in the top 20 among receivers in PFF grades and has two touchdowns in five games. He’s matched last season’s target totals and exceeded last year's receiving yardage.
Golden is ninth in the league in receiving yards and has two 100-yard games in his last three. He’ll likely draw DaRon Bland in coverage, who has given up five 80+ yard receptions in the last two weeks and ranks 92nd out of 104 NFL corners in PFF.
A rookie known for his speed and deep-threat ability last year, he’s improved his yards per catch and yards per target even as he’s been used more this year.
- Prop picks: 1-3, -0.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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