For the majority of the season, this looked like a potentially decisive game for both Luton and Everton. But now it’s Luton who really can’t afford to lose this one. It’s going to be tight, cagey, and nerve-wracking.
How will the game unfold and can Luton pick up vital points? Don’t miss our Luton Town vs. Everton predictions and free betting picks for Friday, May 3.
EPL predictions for Luton vs Everton
My best bet:
Luton moneyline, draw no bet (-113 at TonyBet)
My analysis
I had Luton vs. Everton circled as a potential ‘six-pointer’ for two teams who were battling to avoid relegation to the Championship. Even at this point one month ago, it looked like a potentially decisive game. Now, thanks to an incredible run of four wins from five games, Everton are officially safe and guaranteed to be playing in the Premier League next season.
It’s made the game at Luton a lot less straightforward. Everton’s team should look similar to the one which played Brentford last week, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin hoping to return after illness.
The biggest factor in this game is something we can’t measure and something that no amount of looking at stats or past performances is going to tell us, and that’s motivation.
For Everton, it’s hard to know exactly how they’re going to approach this game. They’ve celebrated staying up and now the pressure is off. Are the players already planning their summer vacations and will they come into this less focused on winning? Or will the lack of pressure allow them to play with a freedom that being in a relegation battle didn’t? There are too many doubts about what we’re going to see from this Everton side and the mentality that their players will bring into Friday’s game, but that’s something we can’t expect from Luton.
Luton have lacked real talent and quality this season and if we are honest, it’s only really former Everton player Ross Barkley who has shown top Premier League talent this season. However, one thing you can never accuse this team of is lacking heart, and in front of their loud home crowd, we can expect another hard-working performance.
They come into this game 18th in the Premier League, just one point and one spot behind Nottingham Forest, and they know a win would see them leapfrog Forest, who play Sheffield United the following day, a game they should win. That means that Luton cannot afford to lose this game. With that in mind, we’re taking Luton on the Draw No Bet market, meaning that if it were to finish level, the original stake would be returned.
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Luton vs Everton same-game parlay (SGP)
Luton to win
Luton to win 1H
Under 3
We can’t include a Draw No Bet market in the same-game parlay, so in this instance it’s been replaced by a Luton moneyline win. Then we are adding a second leg of Luton to be winning at halftime.
So far this season, Everton have the worst first half record of any team when playing away, winning just once after 45 minutes on the road. Given the importance of the game, we know Luton will start hard and quick.
For Luton to get the win, they’d probably need to keep this game fairly low-scoring. Given the problems that Everton have had scoring goals across the whole season, they could easily go scoreless.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Luton vs Everton odds
Luton vs Everton live odds
Luton vs Everton opening odds
- Moneyline: Luton +200 | Everton +120
- Draw: +260
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Luton vs Everton side and Over/Under analysis
- Luton are marginal +160 favorites with Everton at +165 and the draw at +265.
- Everton haven’t conceded in their past three Premier League games.
- Over 2.5 goals is most likely according to the bookies at -136 with Under 2.5 goals at +114.
- 57.1% of Everton’s Premier League games have ended with Under 2.5 goals.
Luton vs Everton game info
| Location: | Kenilworth Road, Luton, England |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
| Weather: | 53F, 16 mph winds, 70% PoP |
 Recent EPL form |
L-L-L-W-L |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-W-L-W |
Luton vs Everton key injuries
Luton: Tom Lockyer CB (Out), Marvelous Nakamba CM (Out), Issa Kabore RB (Out), Jacob Brown FWR (Out), Mari’I Bell CB (Out), Chiedozie Ogbene CM (Out), Mads Andersen CB (Out).
Everton: Dele Alli CAM (Out), Nathan Patterson DEF (Out), Beto FWR (Out), Seamus Coleman FB (Out), Dominic Calvert-Lewin STR (Questionable), Vitalii Mykolenko (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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