The Phoenix Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks face off for the first time since L.A. traded five-time All-Star Kelsey Plum to Phoenix for Monique Akoa Makani. Unfortunately, Plum is out against her former team, and Akoa Makani is questionable.
Plum’s injury is another blow to the reeling Phoenix squad, and my Mercury vs. Sparks predictions call for Los Angeles to win and cover as Rae Burrell continues to shine on offense.
Read on for my WNBA picks for Tuesday, Aug. 11, and don't miss tip-off at 10 p.m. ET.
Mercury vs Sparks prediction
Mercury vs Sparks best bet: Rae Burrell Over 14.5 points (-110)
Rae Burrell averaged 11.5 points and 26.5 minutes across her first 19 games of the season. Over the Los Angeles Sparks’ last 12 games, however, she leads the team in minutes (31.8) while averaging 16.2 ppg.
In that span, Burrell has scored 15+ seven times while shooting 51.9% from the floor and 51% from beyond the arc.
The Phoenix Mercury are ranked 13th in defensive rating against opposing guards, and strong perimeter defender Monique Akoa Makani is now playing for L.A. Burrell has scored 15+ in two of three against PHX, and I’ll play this to 17.5.
COVERS INTEL: Phoenix has allowed the fourth-most points, fifth-highest FG%, most made triples, and highest 3-point percentage to opposing guards this season, setting Burrell up nicely to cash this modest scoring line.
Mercury vs Sparks same-game parlay
The Sparks have covered in four of five games, playing competitively against the New York Liberty, snapping the Minnesota Lynx’s 10-game win streak, and erasing a 19-point deficit to cover against the Golden State Valkyries.
The Mercury are 0-3 SU and ATS across their last three, so the edge goes to L.A., playable to -3.5.
The Sparks have gone Under in three straight, which has driven this total down, making it a value play to 183.5. Both teams rank in the Bottom 4 in defensive rating, and they’ve hit the Over in two of three season meetings.
Mercury vs Sparks SGP
- Rae Burrell Over 14.5 points
- Sparks -1.5
- Over 178.5
Want more basketball parlays? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Mercury vs Sparks player prop pick
Kahleah Copper Over 22.5 points (-120)
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring at 20.6 ppg, but she’s struggled to score the ball in three straight games, averaging just 15 points on 34% shooting.
With Kelsey Plum sidelined, Copper should see a boost in usage and FGA. In three meetings with L.A. this season, Copper averaged 28 points and scored a career-best 41 points on June 13.
The Sparks have surrendered the second-most points (93.6) and second-highest FG% (47.9), and Copper will need to take advantage to keep her team competitive. Play to 24.5.
- Best bet: 26-26, -2.20 units
- SGP: 7-45, -9.00 units
- Player prop: 12-14, -3.74 units
Mercury vs Sparks odds
- Spread: Mercury +1.5 | Sparks -1.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +110 | Sparks -130
- Over/Under: Over 178.5 | Under 178.5
Mercury vs Sparks trend
Los Angeles has covered in two of three matchups with Phoenix this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Sparks
| Location | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, August 11, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | KPHE, SPECSN |
Mercury vs Sparks latest injuries
Mercury: Kelsey Plum (Out).
Sparks: Monique Akoa Makani (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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