PGA Championship Picks and Predictions: All Our Picks for the PGA Championship at Valhalla

Sahith Theegala – Round 2 Over 70.5 Strokes (+110)

By Tony Sartori

Sahith Theegala is not striking the ball well, ranking 86th among the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 72nd in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 101st in Driving Accuracy, and 80th in Driving Distance.

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Brooks Koepka first-round leader (+2,500)

By Chris Gregory

On top of cashing this bet with a Thursday 63 at the 2019 PGA Championship, Brooks was just two shots back after Round 1 in 2021 (T2), one shot back in 2020 (T29), and one shot back in 2017 (T13). He also had a share of the opening-round lead at last year's Masters (T2).

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Scottie Scheffler Top 20 After Round 1 (+110)

By Tony Sartori

I can't believe this prop is listed at plus-money odds: Scottie Scheffler to finish inside the Top 20 after Round 1 is returning +110 at bet365. Scheffler's undoubtedly the best golfer in the world right now and there's no reason to believe that success won't continue this week. 

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Rory McIlroy Top 20 After Round 1 (+140)

By Tony Sartori

This is a chalky pick but we're also targeting Rory McIlroy in that same first-round market. He won at Valhalla when it last played host in 2014 and shot a 68 or lower in all four rounds. I believe he'll score similarly this week. Valhalla is a bomber's course so Rory profiles well here considering he's one longest drivers of the golf ball in the world. On top of that, he's entering the week in better form than anyone not named Scottie Scheffler.

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Ludvig Aberg over Xander Schauffele in Round 1 (+110)

By Tony Sartori

Ludvig Aberg enters this week in great form following 16 straight weekend appearances on the PGA Tour. Over that stretch, Aberg boasts 11 Top-15 finishes, including his win at the RSM Classic and three other runner-up finishes. One of those runner-up finishes came at Augusta as Aberg was the last man battling Scheffler on Sunday. By comparison, Schauffele finished eighth. 

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Jon Rahm to win outright (+2000)

By Neil Parker

This is an outlier high price for Jon Rahm through BetMGM, and aside from failing to win thus far on the LIV circuit and disappointing with a T45 finish at the Masters, there's a lot to like about his game heading to Valhalla. He’s posted Top 10s in each of his seven LIV events and he paces the tour in birdies with an average of 5.24 per round. He's also inside the Top 10 in driving distance, greens-in-regulation percentage, and putting average, and he gained true strokes tee-to-green at the Masters. He was trading in the +750 range to win the PGA Championship a year ago at a track that probably doesn’t provide the same advantage as Valhalla does for his game. I’m also betting him at -105 through bet365 for a Top-20 finish to complement this outright ticket.

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Ludvig Aberg to win outright (+1800)

By Tony Sartori

The first guy to target this week is Ludvig Aberg, who's returning 18/1 at a price that I believe is over-inflated due to concerns with his knee injury that held him out of the Wells Fargo Championship. However, given his form prior to that WD, I think Aberg’s absence was more maintenance than it was injury, considering he's fired off 16 straight weekend appearances on Tour. Aberg boasts 11 Top-15 finishes over that stretch, including his win at the RSM Classic and three runner-up performances, one of which came at the Masters.

Bryson DeChambeau to win outright (+2800)

By Tony Sartori

Another guy to target this week is Bryson DeChambeau, who profiles extremely well for the venue this week. Valhalla is a monster golf course now north of 7,600 yards after the most recent renovations. Big hitters will benefit, but not at the sacrifice of accuracy with the third-smallest greens that we've seen on Tour thus far. DeChambeau is one of the longest hitters in the world, but his accuracy in the ball-striking department has also improved as he's been more accurate than the field in three of his past four tournaments, including his sixth-place finish at the Masters. Valhalla fits his game even more than Augusta does.

Corey Conners Top 40 (+115)

By Chris Gregory

I’ve been going back to Corey Conners time and time again recently and this is once again a week where he deserves a spot on the card. He’s got four Top 20s among six Top 30s in his last nine starts going back to the Genesis Invitational and he’s also finished T12 and T17 in two of his last three PGA Championship tries. Lastly, he’s fifth in this field in true strokes gained approach and 15th from tee to green over the last six months.

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Lucas Glover Top 40 (+190)

By Neil Parker

Lucas Glover is rolling along a sneaky-good stretch with five consecutive Top-30 finishes and he’s been a tee-to-green machine dating back to last summer's heater that included consecutive wins and another three Top-5 finishes. The shortcoming with Glover is his work on the greens and he's more accurate than long off the tee. While his game doesn’t fit the prototypical winning profile needed at Valhalla Golf Club, Glover is in the middle of a career resurgence and has finished Top 40 in 18 of his past 25 events, including his T20 at the Masters in April.

Tyrrell Hatton Top 30 (+130)

By Neil Parker

The Englishman has quietly played the weekend in nine consecutive majors and has Top-15 finishes in two straight PGA Championships. Hatton’s T9 at the Masters in April was also his best result in a major and he’s having a solid LIV Golf debut with seven Top-20 finishes including four Top 10s in eight events. Finally, I value Hatton gaining true strokes across the board at Augusta National in April, and he’s also gained true strokes on approach in six straight majors.

Justin Thomas Top 30 (+125)

By Neil Parker

Thomas gained true strokes across the board en route to a T5 at the RBC Heritage and T21 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, and he’s also above average in both approaches from 175-200 yards and bogey avoidance on tour this season despite just recently finding solid form. I'm also encouraged that the two-time Wanamaker winner has gained true strokes on the greens in his latest two events.

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Sepp Straka Top 40 (+115)

By Neil Parker

The two-time PGA Tour winner is in strong form and has played the weekend in four consecutive events, including finishing T16 at the Masters and T8 at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. Straka ranks third in true strokes gained approach and eighth in true strokes gained off-the-tee in this field across his past 11 measured rounds, and he also finished T7 in the 2023 PGA Championship.

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Check back later

By Tony Sartori

Coming Friday Night.

Check back later

By Tony Sartori

Coming Saturday Night.