Kyle Larson was on the losing end of a close finish at Dover two Sundays ago, as Denny Hamlin was able to air block him and hold onto the win. But Larson managed to reverse the result in NASCAR's closest-ever finish at Kansas last week, holding off Chris Buescher by .001 seconds.
We've seen razor-thin margins in terms of establishing favorites in the NASCAR Cup Series odds this year, but following his second win of the year, Larson has given himself just a bit of breathing room over Hamlin and William Byron in the battle for the Bill France Cup.
There's still 24 races to go this season, but here is our latest NASCAR Cup Series odds update.
NASCAR Cup Series odds
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 | +350 | +400 | +375 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | +425 | +500 | +400 |
| William Byron | +500 | +525 | +500 | +450 |
| Christopher Bell | +750 | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 | +1,000 | +900 | +1,000 |
| Chase Elliott | +900 | +700 | +900 | +750 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,200 | +1,400 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1,400 | +1,500 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,600 | +2,000 | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Joey Logano | +1,600 | +2,000 | +1,600 | +2,200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1,600 | +2,000 | +1,600 | +1,800 |
| Kyle Busch | +2,000 | +3,000 | +2,000 | +4,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2,200 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +4,000 |
| Chris Buescher | +2,500 | +3,000 | +2,500 | +3,500 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,500 | +5,000 | +3,500 | +5,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +4,000 | +6,000 | +4,000 | +6,000 |
Odds as of 5-8-2024.
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NASCAR Cup Series favorites
Kyle Larson (+350 to +400)
In addition to his second win, Kyle Larson picked up his Cup Series-best sixth Top 5 of the year at Kansas.
Larson also dominated proceedings at Las Vegas — one of the staple 1 1/2-mile ovals on the NASCAR circuit and also a playoff venue — earlier this year. The No. 5 Chevrolet pilot is tops in laps led (633) at this stage of the season.
Denny Hamlin (+400 to +500)
Hamlin fell to as low as +400 following his third victory of 2024 at Dover, though he had a mirror full of Larson at the wire. His odds didn't move much after a fifth-place finish at Kansas, though he did fall back to second-choice status in this market.
Hamlin produced another solid season in 2023 with three wins and 14 Top 5s with 998 laps led, but time is running out for the 43-year-old driver to capture that elusive championship.
William Byron (+450 to +525)
Byron will be looking to snap a rare cold streak at Darlington this Sunday following a 33rd at Dover and a 23rd at Kansas.
Byron's versatility has been on full display in 2024 with wins at Daytona, COTA, and Martinsville. Though he's only sixth in laps led to this point, he was second in laps led in 2023 while ranking first in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, and average rating.
Christopher Bell (+650 to +850)
Oddsmakers varied in their approach to resetting the title odds following Christopher Bell's breakthrough at Phoenix, with some slashing his odds almost in half while others dropped him just a point or two while bringing some of his competition closer to him.
Owning a win over the course that the championship race will be contested on will loom large throughout the march to November, but he's understandably risen a couple of points across the board after failing to be much of a factor on a weekly basis since that March 10 victory.
NASCAR Cup Series recent winners
| Season | Driver | Race wins |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | 3 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano (2) | 4 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | 10 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | 5 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch (2) | 5 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | 3 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | 8 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson (7) | 5 |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch | 5 |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick | 5 |
NASCAR Cup Series betting trends
- Repeat winners are quite common. Dating back to 1993, 16 of the past 30 winners have been previous Cup Series champions.
- Hendrick Motorsports has been the most prolific team recently, with a driver winning four times in the past decade, including both 2020 and 2021.
- Likewise, Chevrolet has been the best manufacturer, with its cars taking five of the last 10 Cup Series titles, including HMS' wins and Kevin Harvick's 2016 title for Stewart-Haas.
NASCAR Cup Series Odds FAQs
Kyle Larson is favored to win the NASCAR Cup Series.
Ryan Blaney won his first NASCAR Cup Series title in 2023.
Kyle Busch won the Cup Series in 2015 and 2019, and is +2,000 to win it in 2024.
