As Tom Law watched the Kentucky Derby unfold before his eyes, live from the stands at Churchill Downs, the veteran horse racing writer and handicapper thought he saw an issue near the top of the home stretch. He suggested as much to a friend who was with him.
“Really, first and foremost, I was covering the race as a reporter,” Law told Covers on Saturday night. “I said, ‘I think we’re gonna have a problem with this race. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a disqualification.’”
But again, Law – managing editor of Saratoga Special and its website, ThisIsHorseRacing.com – was in reporter mode immediately after what first appeared to be a victory for Maximum Security. Following that finish, Law was only thinking about the breaking news of a stewards’ inquiry into the race, working his sources and such.
“I did some reporting and then said, ‘Wait a minute. I know Country House was on my ticket, and Code of Honor was too,’” Law said, alluding to the second- and third-place finishers.
Indeed, Law had a $1, five-horse exacta box ticket, and Country House and Code of Honor were among those horses. The more he watched the replay, the more apparent it became to him that Maximum Security – who went off as the 9/2 second choice – impeded not only the place/show horses, but also ones that finished off the board.
“It was a long inquiry, and I’ve been around long to know that when stewards take that long, it’s a very hard decision to make,” said Law, covering his 20th Run for the Roses. “It’s hard to make that decision any day, but especially in the Kentucky Derby, with 150,000 fans in the stands and millions watching on TV.”
Then came the decision: Maximum Security was disqualified. That moved Country House, a 65/1 long shot, to first and Code of Honor (14/1) to second – turning Law's $20 wager into a hit of $1504.80.
“I was kind of like, ‘Whoa, sweet. I got the exacta.’ I thought they made the right decision, but it’s hard to win like that,” Law said, alluding to his good luck coming at the expense of Maximum Security’s owners Gary and Mary West, trainer Jason Servis and jockey Luis Saez. “Me collecting my $1,500 is nothing compared to what it would be for them winning the Derby. My heart goes out to them.”
A horse player at MGM Resorts sportsbooks did far better, making and winning two identical superfecta wagers, on the top four finishers. Each bet was for just $4. The whopping return: approximately $51,000 on each wager, or $39,065.10 per ticket after taxes were drawn – a total of $78,130.20.
“He must’ve been a saint in a previous life,” Mirage sportsbook supervisor Scott Shelton said. “He literally turned $8 into $80,000. This is a miracle.”
Back at Churchill Downs, the DQ decision impacted approximately $9 million in the pari-mutuel betting pool, according to Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for TwinSpires.com. Maximum Security drew $6.2 million in the win pool, nearly $1.5 million in the place pool and just shy of $1.3 million in the show pool. On the flip side, Country House drew $520,907 to win the race.
“There’s no swing in how much got paid out,” DeRosa said. “But there are fewer winners, and those winners made more from their winning bets. It wouldn’t have been the DQ I’d have made, but among my colleagues, we had disagreements. Maximum Security definitely bothered some horses. It was a tough spot for the stewards.”
DeRosa said there was $41.8 million in the Derby’s pari-mutuel win pool, $35.1 million of which (84 percent) went to those fortunate enough to pick Country House.
The disqualification – the first for a winner in the Derby’s 145 years – led to a huge swing for sportsbook operators who offered futures betting. The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas was one such shop and got dinged pretty good.
“We went from winning mid-five figures on Maximum Security to losing mid-five figures on Country Road,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “A solid winner to a solid loser. It’s not like our futures pool is seven figures, but that was a decent swing.”
The SuperBook opened its Derby futures market two months ago and kept it open right up until post time Saturday. Like DeRosa, Murray was taken aback by the disqualification.
“I was surprised by it, honestly. I didn’t think they were gonna reverse it,” Murray said, before noting how the DQ was received by SuperBook patrons. “It was pretty muted. A few people who had Maximum Security were upset, but there wasn’t a huge roar or anything like that. And I didn’t’ see any really big tickets on Country House, but enough people had him to where it was a decent loser for us.”
Murray pointed out that the larger issue now becomes what happens with wagering on the remainder of the Triple Crown races. Country House was a huge underdog Saturday, and Murray said it’s unlikely the horse has another win in him.
“I think it’ll be bad for the rest of the races,” Murray said, noting a Triple Crown winner is quite improbable. “He probably won’t win the Preakness, and then the Belmont will be a dud.”
But winning bettors weren’t necessarily thinking about that on Saturday night.
“I would’ve went out for a beer tonight, no matter what,” Law said. “It’ll just be a better beer now!”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
