undermysac

Chris Jones vs 2 centers who aren't completely healthy.

Jalen Carter vs anyone on that KC o line....

Advantage defense. 

Philly's cornerbacks vs KC WR's.

KC cornerbacks vs Philly WR's.....

Advantage defense. 

I don't care about no fast track Red 

You just made great points as to why the line is where it is right now.

The power rankings matter. And the things you wrote matter.

So on paper the Eagles should be favored. Toss in all that stuff you mentioned(it is important). Out pops the formula KC -1.5.

Now, tell us why the line should be KC -3.5 or possibly -4.

And if we are also talking about "unmeasurable intangibles", we have to acknowledge that the referees have been biased towards KC. It's a thing and it's real. How can it not be when it comes up time and time again in the playoffs?

I'll give you 2 things.

Coaching is better for KC.

Quarterback is better for KC.

2 very important things indeed. 

But if we are just talking about where or what a line "should be", this line stinks to all hell

You're out of your mind. You started the thread off well with saying "the more I think about this line, the more it doesn't make sense"

And then you posted this.

FPI(football power index):

KC 3.9, Philly 6.0

Sagarin:

KC 24.84(#6), Philly 28.92(#1)

DVOA:

KC 18.1%(#6), Philly 25.7%(#3)

Teamrankings.com(predictive PR)

KC 4.6(#6), Philly 8.1(#4)

Oddshark predicted score:

KC 18.9, Philly 25.8

Pro Football Reference SRS(simple rating system):

KC 4.18(10th), Philly 7.69(5th)

Should I reference any more sites/PR's?

How the fuck is KC favored on a neutral field?

According to pregame.com, 62% of the tickets on Philly, and 53% of the $ on Philly. I'm never sure of these #'s as other sites will show differently. 

What I will say is this, good fucking luck I'm not betting on this game.

You'd be better off finding an edge in small conference ncaab games.

Get drunk, eat like shit, watch a terrible halftime show, and try to wake up semi sober for work the next day.

Well I'll give you coaching, and qb play as other pieces of the pie. Other than that, there's no reason that the Chiefs should be favored. 

But they are. Makes you think a little...

My Gatorade guy plays for the Lions, it's a shame they didn't make it. When he was on the Buccaneers that one year we won with blue.

He'll bust 2 or 3 long ones on kc no doubt. How many yellow flags fly on those runs is another question. 

Just be prepared 

61% tickets and 53% of $ on the Eagles. 

Might as well burn your eagle $ instead 

Biscuit gets it 

No you are wrong.

Phi dvoa is +25.7%

KC dvoa is +18.1%

Phi Sagarin is 28.92

KC Sagarin is 24.84

I could list epa, succes rate and a world of other power rankings.

Philly should be favored.

But KC will still win for reasons unbeknownst to man.

This is correct. 

Even though Philly is the better team. The bettors hate of kc will get them on the wrong side, including me as I have already done.

@bigred84

 Do you think that Daniels isn't good?

He didn't fumble 3 times, other players did.

Didn't matter though, Philly's offense ran through the Washington D like a wet paper bag. And they did it with 2 centers, one in the 1H on one leg, and the other in the 2H with a bad back.

That was incredible 

I went 1-5 today.

Last play of the year is Philly ML+105 on a look ahead bet.

It will be the only play I make. This nfl season can't end soon enough. 

Good job by everyone here throughout the year.

You better be fuckin right

The refs have a flag ready on any important down for the Chiefs.

Then even replay doesn't fix a bad call

Oops, another fumble. No flag this time

Thanks, maybe I'll try to burn through season 1 before fishing season. Don't think I have time for anything longer.

Meanwhile the Bills recover a fumble and the emergency yellow flag comes without hesitation