The Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez rematch is our premier boxing event this weekend, and hopes are high that this bout will match the excitement of the 2023 war won by Navarrette. However, just as Navarrete looked to be too much for Valdez then, the WBO junior lightweight champion should be victorious once again in this championship rematch.
Boxing odds have Navarette is a -270 favorite, and Valdez is a +215 underdog. Here are my best Navarrete vs. Valdez predictions and free betting picks from the Footprint Center in Phoenix.
Navarrete vs Valdez prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Navarrete moneyline (-270 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Navarrete by decision (+110 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
The first fight between these two was a fun fight, a competitive fight, but the feeling was that Emanuel Navarrete won clearly and a rematch wouldn’t play out any differently. However, this is one of the few fights that can be made at junior lightweight right now that is worth talking about, and with Navarrete coming off a failed lightweight title challenge losing to Denys Berinchyk by split decision last May, it just makes sense to do it again.
Navarrete is a big puncher and wears his opponents down with constant pressure. He has 31 knockouts in 38 fights and he has enough skill to the point where he isn’t just a one-dimensional puncher, but he struggles to recapture momentum if he can’t fight at his pace.
There’s no doubt that he was exposed by Berinchyk’s awkward and conservative approach, and while he misfired repeatedly in that fight, Oscar Valdez is an open book and another chance for him to recapture his form.
Valdez is a former two-division champion and was a standout amateur, but he’s 2-2 over his last four fights and might be past his best at 33.
While Valdez hung tough against Narvarrete in the first fight, there wasn’t anything in that performance that suggested that he could try anything different to force a different outcome. Well, Valdez believes that he can, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him as Navarette landed more power punches and he simply got outworked.
These are two fighters structurally similar to each other. They both use pressure and activity to get their offense in, and struggle when they find their Plan A doesn’t work.
Maybe Valdez can rely on his amateur background and employ a tactical approach to limit Navarrete’s offense like Berinchyk did, but he has never fought that way and won’t start now. This will be another 12 rounds of these two in each other’s range, pounding on the other until the end.
Navarrete is the bigger puncher and we already know he was the better fighter. I don’t see how Valdez improves against an opponent that does everything he does, but better. Navarette is the pick.
Best best analysis
These two hit each other with their best shots and neither one looked like they were heading to the canvas. The last fight was a bell-to-bell banger that went the distance and Navarette got a wider than expected decision on the scorecards, and all signs point to a carbon copy of the last fight.
My best bet is Navarrete winning by decision.
Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez odds
| Method of victory | Emanuel Navarrete | Oscar Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -270 | +215 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +250 | +650 |
| Win by points or decision | +110 | +400 |
| Draw | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 12-5.
Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez tale of the tape
| Navarrete | Valdez | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 130 lbs | Weight | 130 lbs |
| 72 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 38-2-1 (31 KO) | Record | 32-2 (24 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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