Gervonta Davis faces off against Frank Martin in our featured boxing attraction this weekend, and this bout between undefeated lightweights will surely deliver in the action department.
Davis is ending a long layoff to defend his recently awarded WBA lightweight title against the prodigious Martin, whose ambition might get crushed under the power of “Tank.”
Boxing odds have Davis as a significant -600 favorite, and Martin is a +425 underdog. Here are my best free betting picks and Davis vs. Martin predictions from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Davis vs Martin prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Davis moneyline (-600 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Davis by KO (-180 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Though he remains the biggest attraction in the lightweight division, Gervonta Davis hasn't held a recognized world title in the weight class before he was promoted to full champion by the WBA, making this his first official title defense at lightweight. His first defense of 2024 is also his first fight in over a year against undefeated contender Frank Martin, and he might be in for more of a fight than the odds indicate. Davis last fought in April 2023, achieving a high-profile knockout win against Ryan Garcia.
When it comes to Davis, there are few as dangerously complete as he is in the sport. He is one of the best two-way punchers in boxing, meaning his power is just as explosive whether he walks you down or sits back and counters. He has underrated defense, as well as supreme patience and timing. It will take a very special kind of fighter to beat Davis in his prime, but "Tank" isn't without a weak spot that Martin might be able to exploit.
Martin looks like a fighter who can be a problem at 135. He has good power, hand speed, and good ring IQ. He is an aggressive stalker who likes to fight on the inside, unlike most of Davis' recent opponents. He made waves last year by walking out on a potential fight with Shakur Stevenson, a fight I wouldn't have favored him in, and instead held out for a tougher, more rewarding fight with Davis. This is a big step up in class for Martin, especially as Davis can match his athleticism and potentially beat him to the punch.
Instead of trying to beat Davis at his own game, Martin has to close the distance and keep the fight in close quarters. Davis doesn't like to get crowded and utilizes the ring to set up his big shots. This aligns with how Martin normally likes to fight, but Martin may not have the size advantage needed to wear Davis down and absorb the big shots when they land. Unfortunately for Martin, Davis has such great footwork that he is likely to avoid getting pinned down in such a manner. Davis is going to slowly chop him down with pinpoint shots once he makes his initial adjustments around the third or fourth round.
It wouldn't be surprising if Martin gives Davis a run for his money in the opening rounds of the fight, but being competitive is the best he can hope for. Martin may be champion one day, but it won't be this night, as Davis will make the first successful defense of his title at Martin's expense.
Pick: Davis moneyline (-600 at DraftKings)
Best best analysis
While Davis hasn't been in the ring for 14 months, Martin's last fight was 11 months ago against Artem Harutrunyan, so both might be dealing with ring rust. Martin might be able to steal a few of the early rounds on activity alone, but similarly to Garcia, a repetitive approach gives Davis a chance to land a debilitating counter punch that could end the fight abruptly. That said, Davis is moving further away from his days as an early-round destroyer as he's rounded out his boxing skills.
Martin's early resistance and success won't change the outcome unless he manages to knock Davis down or inflict a significant cut within the first four rounds. By the sixth round, we should start seeing the effects of Davis's shots as Martin becomes more hesitant to engage on the inside and begins to backpedal. Davis will begin to cut off the ring and apply pressure, ultimately forcing Martin to wilt in the later rounds of a competitive fight.
Pick: Davis by KO (-180 at DraftKings)
Gervonta Davis vs Frank Martin odds
| Method of victory | Gervonta Davis | Frank Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -600 | +425 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -180 | +1,200 |
| Win by points or decision | +285 | +700 |
| Draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-13.
Gervonta Davis vs Frank Martin tale of the tape
| Davis | Martin | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 135 pounds | Weight | 135 pounds |
| 67 1/2 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 29-0 (27 KOs) | Record | 18-0 (12 KOs) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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