The rematch that nobody asked for will take place this Saturday with Jake Paul facing off against former UFC champion Tyron Woodley.
Woodley made his boxing debut against Paul in August and lost by split decision as a +162 underdog. Woodley accepted the rematch on short notice following a rib injury to Paul's originally-scheduled opponent Tommy Fury, and the odds for Paul-Woodley 2 came in with him as an even bigger dog, this time at +200.
Will Paul continue his unbeaten run in the ring or will Woodley finally flatten the YouTube star? We let you know what we think with our best free Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley 2 picks and predictions for Saturday, December 18 from Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.
Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley 2 betting predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis
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Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley 2 betting preview
Jake Paul might be brash, annoying, and egotistical, but he's also 4-0 as a boxer following his August victory against Woodley. The 24-year-old has been training as a pugilist for more than two years and first took on social media rival AnEsonGib in 2020, knocking him out two minutes into the fight.
He turned former NBA player Nate Robinson into a meme later that year before picking up another first-round knockout win, this time against former MMA fighter Ben Askren, in April. At six-foot-one, and with a 76-inch reach, the younger Paul brother has enjoyed a size advantage against all of his foes.
Tyron Woodley is most known for his run as the UFC welterweight champion, successfully defending his title four times before losing to current title-holder Kamaru Usman. He was cut from the UFC after four straight defeats, albeit against some of the top fighters in the division.
Like Askren, the 39-year-old Woodley is more known for his wrestling ability. Unlike Askren, Woodley also has power in his hands, as shown by his five wins in the octagon by way of KO/TKO, including highlight-reel knockouts of Robbie Lawler and Josh Koscheck.
The first bout against Paul was Woodley's first experience as a boxer, and while he was outpointed by scores of 78-74, 77-75, and 75-77, he did flash his power on occasion, giving Paul the most trouble he has faced in the ring.
Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley 2 picks
Woodley ML (+200)
When these two first faced off, Paul controlled the fight with his reach and jab through the first three rounds before Woodley knocked Paul into the ropes in the fourth round. Woodley didn't go in for the finish, which sparked rumors that there was a hidden no-knockout clause in the contract, although the former UFC title-holder has since claimed that a shoulder injury was the real factor.
That was a turning point in the fight, with Woodley showing much more activity in the final four rounds as his MMA-caliber cardio came into play. That said, it was too little too late for Woodley, who threw far fewer shots and connected with less accuracy.
However, the fact that Woodley got more comfortable as the fight went on bodes well for his success in this one, as he should be a little less mechanical in his movements and more comfortable with boxing gloves. While Woodley did take this fight on short notice, it's worth noting that he was clamoring for a rematch immediately after his previous loss, and was back in the gym training by the next month, so you know he wants to even the score.
Paul has the range and does a better job of stringing together combinations than Woodley, who tends to throw shots one at a time. However, Woodley has the edge in power, and as long as he doesn't fall way behind early, he should have the gas tank to pull away in the later rounds. Paul has shown improvement in every fight, but the last four rounds between these two were close, and seeing him as almost a 3-to-1 favorite is too much.
And if you think these fights are more theatre than sport, what better result could there be than a Woodley victory and a trilogy next year? We're leaning towards Woodley at +200 and expecting another big payday for these guys in the future.
Woodley by decision (+750)
Paul has promised Woodley a $500,000 bonus if he can knock him out, but even with that tidy little Christman present, we don't think Woodley can get it. Yes, Woodley has promised to finally let his hands go, but he's been promising that in every fight he's been in for the last three years, and has failed to deliver.
It's also interesting that he mentioned a swollen shoulder during that loss in a recent interview, and I've got to wonder if he's compromised long-term by a torn labrum he suffered against Demian Maia in 2017. He simply doesn't have the one-punch KO ability he showed against Josh Koschek early in his UFC career, especially while wearing 10 oz boxing gloves.
Although Woodley landed more power shots (41 to 35) than Paul in that August bout, he also found it tough to get inside with the YouTube star fighting behind his reach and jab, while circling and often clinching in close quarters. It won't be easy for Woodley to outwork or outbox Paul over eight rounds but it's more likely than the +750 payout for this suggests.
Will Jake Paul score a knockdown - No (-140)
Frankly, we're a bit surprised this one is even priced the way it is. Sure, Paul has knocked out the rejects that he previously faced in the ring, but Woodley is a tough customer with a granite chin and he was never knocked down in 16 UFC fights.
Paul did a good job of landing jabs and putting together one-twos against Woodley in that previous fight, but he never seriously threatened him with any power, and when he threw heavier shots, he occasionally found himself off balance. Paul will likely rely on a more technical approach once again so don't expect him to send Woodley to the canvas.
