Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson is mere hours away from becoming a reality in one of the most anticipated boxing events of the year.
Tyson is making his official return to the ring 20 years after his final fight, and YouTube-influencer-turned-boxer Paul doesn’t intend to make it easy for him.
The Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds have Paul as a -210 favorite, and Tyson is a +170 underdog.
Here are my best Paul vs. Tyson predictions and free betting picks for November 15, from the AT&T Center in Arlington, TX, live on Netflix.
Tyson vs Paul prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Jake Paul moneyline (-210 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Jake Paul moneyline (-210 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Ahead of this fight, I don’t know what there are more of, people who like Mike Tyson or people who hate Jake Paul.
Sentimentality is dangerous when it comes to betting on fights, mostly because we ignore our eyes and brains and rely on nostalgia instead.
There’s no doubt that if we had any other version of Tyson — including at the end of his actual in-ring career when schmoes like Kevin McBride and Danny Williams were knocking him out — Paul would be reduced to a greasy smear in the middle of the ring. But we’re not even getting that version of Tyson.
Instead, we’re getting a 58-year-old who caused a delay in this fight due to medical concerns following an ulcer.
Despite the novelty of this event, Paul won’t be taking it lightly. The implications of Tyson beating him would be catastrophic for his future endeavors in both boxing and his potential involvement in MMA as a co-owner of PFL. While he might be fine with carrying the elderly Tyson for a few rounds, he won’t hesitate to let his hands go if the fight goes that far.
However, I get the sense this will be treated as a high-level exhibition, especially since we’re getting two-minute rounds instead of the usual three and likely other provisions from the Texas State Athletic Commission to sanction the fight.
From a pure boxing standpoint, Paul has every advantage aside from experience. Tyson will fight as his age suggests — slower to the trigger and conservatively — and won’t initiate exchanges beyond pawing out a jab. Paul could win the fight with his jab alone but might choose to take the fight into close quarters, where Tyson will have his best scoring opportunities and his best chances of ending the fight early.
Every time I go over this fight in my head, I remember when 44-year-old Vitor Belfort fought 58-year-old Evander Holyfield four years ago. No version of Belfort could have beaten a competitive Holyfield, but the four-time heavyweight champion was immediately overwhelmed and battered inside a round.
It’s hard enough sometimes for fighters in their 30s to beat someone in their 20s, and here we have Tyson pushing 60 against the 27-year-old Paul.
There will be no Cinderella story for Tyson. Paul will give the legend his due respect but won’t allow him to hang a loss on him. Paul is the pick.
Best best analysis
I don’t think Paul will go that far to punish Tyson when he realizes after two rounds he’s out of gas. It wouldn’t surprise me if the referee takes a good look at Tyson if he does start piling up punishment from his younger opponent.
With this being an eight-round fight with two minutes each, Tyson could go the distance. However, with Paul shockingly just a little over a 2/1 favorite just days ahead of the fight, taking Paul straight up is the best bet for the fight.
Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul odds
| Method of victory | Mike Tyson | Jake Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +180 | -220 |
| Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +290 | +140 |
| Win by decision or technical decision | +900 | +275 |
| Draw | +750 | +750 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-15.
More Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul coverage
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- Georges St-Pierre's Tyson vs. Paul prediction
- How to watch Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul
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Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul tale of the tape
| Tyson | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 220 lbs | Weight | 230 lbs |
| 71 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 50-6 (44 KO) | Record | 10-1 (7 KO) |
Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul is set to making betting history
Sportsbook operators are seeing an enormous amount of action in the hours leading up to the fight.
"The Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight is on track to be the most bet boxing match in BetMGM history," said Alex Rella, Senior Trader, BetMGM. "We are starting to see action on Paul but Tyson is still popular with bettors. The worst result would be a first-round knockout by Iron Mike."
The most popular prop bets by tickets at BetMGM thus far are Mike Tyson by KO/TKO or DQ (+250), Mike Tyson on points (+1,100), and Mike Tyson to win in Round 1 (+1,400).
Not intended for use in MA.
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