Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny will be contested for the undisputed junior featherweight championship, which is one of our featured events for boxing betting.
Inoue continues his climb to G.O.A.T. status, and not even formidable former champion Doheny looks like he’ll have a chance. I break it all down with my Inoue vs. Doheny predictions from the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan.
Inoue vs Doheny prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Inoue moneyline (-5,000 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Inoue in Round 1-6 (-330 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
It seems like there is nobody at 122 pounds who could potentially challenge Naoya Inoue, including former champion TJ Doheny.
Inoue's dominance is simply astounding. Even though he should be at a stage in his career where something should be slowing down or encountering increased resistance in a fourth weight class, the Japanese product is simply unopposed and will likely remain so until he eventually sets his sights on the featherweight division. While Doheny has earned this assignment, he has little at his disposal to spring an upset.
Four years ago, Doheny held the IBF title and put up a spirited effort in defeat against Daniel Roman. That fight signaled the end of Doheny's prime, and he dialed back the competition to the regional scene soon after that. Since then, Doheny has taken losses to Ionut Baluta, Michael Conlan, and Sam Goodman. He's won three in a row since the Goodman loss against regional opposition, but how that earned him a shot at Inoue is beyond me.
At age 37, Doheny is more hittable than ever, and he is also particularly vulnerable to a left hook to the body, which happens to be one of Inoue's signature punches. When he does get hit, Doheny instinctively goes into trading mode in an attempt to regain momentum. While he shows a lot of heart in those moments, his lack of evasive movement and porous defense will provide Inoue with a blank canvas to craft a fistic masterpiece.
This fight will go on for as long as Inoue wants it to. We've seen him pace himself and wear down opponents when they retreat into a defensive shell, and we've also seen him press the action when he senses an opportunity to land big shots. Expect more of the same here, as Inoue continues his run with another dominant win in front of an adoring home crowd.
Best best analysis
While Inoue suffered the first knockdown of his career against Luis Neary in his last fight, Neary poured everything he had into those few rounds of success, and it wasn't nearly enough. Doheny has guts, and he'll likely come out firing in hopes of catching Inoue as Neary did.
However, this fight seems destined to be a short night, as Doheny lacks Neary’s power and has a low damage tolerance. My best bet is that Inoue will score an early knockout of Doheny, likely inside the first six rounds.
Naoya Inoue vs TJ Doheny odds
| Method of victory | Naoya Inoue | TJ Doheny |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -5,000 | +1,700 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -1,600 | +2,200 |
| Win by points or decision | +750 | +5,000 |
| Draw | +3,500 | +3,500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.
Naoya Inoue vs TJ Doheny tale of the tape
| Inoue | Doheny | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 37 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| 122 lbs | Weight | 122 lbs |
| 67.5 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 27-0 (24 KO) | Record | 26-4 (20 KO) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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