Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim takes place this Friday at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan as Inoue looks to make the fourth defense of his junior featherweight title. Kim is a late substitute and hoping to upset the odds, but he’ll have to do it against a focused “Monster” who is aiming for a big fight in 2025.
Boxing odds have Inoue as an overwhelming -5,000 favorite, and Kim is a +1,700 underdog.
Here are my best betting picks and Inoue vs. Kim predictions from Tokyo.
Inoue vs Kim prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Inoue moneyline (-5000 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Inoue by KO (-110 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Nobody was expecting Sam Goodman to do anything to Inoue when their fight was announced besides last a few rounds and getting put down. Unfortunately for Goodman, a bad cut has delayed this fight not once, but twice, and he’s off the card now with Kim stepping in as a huge underdog on short notice. Kim is a South Korean boxer who has stuck to the regional scene with little to write home about, having lost to journeyman Rob Diezel two fights ago in what has been the most notable fight of his career.
So much of this fight will be based on what Inoue wants to do. He hasn’t scored an early stoppage for some time, with most of his fights going into the second half since moving up to 122 and there are signs that his power might not be as devastating in the new weight class. I say that acknowledging he’s still knocking everyone out that he’s facing, but he’s had to lay some serious firepower on TJ Doheny, Luis Nery, and Marlon Tapales before they finally wilted. Nery actually stood there with Inoue and had him in some early trouble, but Kim is leagues below any of those men.
There shouldn’t be much for Inoue to worry about. He’s supremely disciplined and skilled, so he won’t get caught off guard by a regional tough man who has never been on this stage in his career. Kim might be naturally bigger, but if he’s struggling against almost 40-year-old journeymen at the peak of his prime, then he’s not going to upset one of the greatest fighters of all time in front of his hometown fans.
I expect Inoue to take care of business, maybe carrying Kim a few rounds to get some time in the ring before he turns it on and closes out with a win in a dominant performance.
Best best analysis
With Inoue’s fights now lasting longer than usual, and perhaps the possibility he won’t want to have too little time in the ring waiting for a bigger fight to materialize later this year. Expect Inoue to win by knockout.
Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim odds
| Method of victory | Naoya Inoue | Ye Joon Kim |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -5000 | +1800 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -1400 | +2500 |
| Win by points or decision | +800 | +5000 |
| Draw | +330 | +3300 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of 1-23
Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim tale of the tape
| Inoue | Kim | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 23 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| 122 lbs | Weight | 122 lbs |
| 67.5 inches | Reach | 64 inches |
| 28-0 (25 KO) | Record | 21-2-2 (13 KOs) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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