Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna is scheduled for 12 rounds in the lightweight division tonight, July 16 from the Crypto.com arena in Los Angeles. This clash pits two Top-10 lightweights inching closer to title contention against one another and should be an intriguing bout as the popular Garcia faces the toughest test of his career in former title-holder Fortuna.
Garcia is expected to pass that test with flying colors, as bookmakers have him marked as a -1,100 favorite. The always tough Fortuna is not known for being an easy out but is a +600 underdog nonetheless.
Ryan Garcia vs Javier Fortuna odds
| Method of victory | Ryan Garcia | Javier Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1,100 | +600 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -235 | +1,200 |
| Win by points or decision | +250 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 13, 2022.
Ryan Garcia vs Javier Fortuna. betting predictions
Picks made on July 13. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna betting preview
There are two schools of thought when it comes to Victorville’s Garcia. To those invested in him, he’s a superstar prospect with a massive following on the verge of emerging as the face of the sport. To others, he’s egotistical and benefits from tactical matchmaking and constant publicity. What is true — regardless of your stance — is that the 23-year-old still has work to do.
Garcia possesses some of the fastest hands in the sport and uses them to fire combinations from awkward angles. That speed has contributed to 18 of his 22 wins to come via stoppage, with his fights averaging 3.59 rounds thus far. He’s won five of his last six inside the distance but has fundamental deficiencies he can only get away with against his current level of opposition.
Fortuna is the best opponent Garcia will have faced to date but is on the wrong side of his prime at 32. The Dominican southpaw is an aggressive puncher who can slip and counter, and his power is as commendable now as it was at his peak at featherweight and junior lightweight. He is coming off a first-round knockout of the unknown Rafael Hernandez, which itself was a bounce-back fight after a loss to Joseph Diaz last summer.
“El Abejon” has had a longer career and faced sterner opposition than Garcia and remains a viable contender, going 4-1 in his last five with three stoppages. He’ll have to rely on that experience and his counter-punching because he’s giving up youth, height, reach, and size to his opponent. While the odds are stacked against him, Fortuna is going to have his moments and he’ll have to make them count.
For Garcia to keep his march towards a lightweight title going, he’ll have to relax and use his physical advantages to keep Fortuna at bay, saving his trademark hand speed for when he has him in trouble. Fortuna needs to stay in the danger zone, but that can give him the chance to take advantage of Garcia’s lack of upper body movement and light him up with counters.
Ryan Garcia vs. Javier Fortuna boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction
In Garcia’s last fight, a routine points win over Emmanuel Tagoe, he showed little growth with new trainer Joe Goossen. This time around, Garcia cannot afford to fight carelessly and is better suited to a more traditional approach than trying to overwhelm Fortuna with his speed. Though he may be undersized, Fortuna has shown good power and has hurt durable fighters.
The longer Garcia’s combinations are, the less effective they’ll be and will give Fortuna a wide-open window to retaliate. By opting to stick with his rapier-like left-hook and a fast overhand right, he can keep Fortuna honest and rack up the points. That same combination is what led to the lone stoppage of Fortuna’s career six years ago in a shocking upset loss to Jason Sosa.
Fortuna is tough, but has too many disadvantages for him to be a legitimate threat to “King Ryan.” Garcia is a -1100 favorite here and should deliver, but better values are to be found elsewhere.
Pick: Garcia to win (-1100 at DraftKings)
Best Bet
Oozing confidence with every conceivable advantage in his corner, Garcia is going to aim to make a statement at Fortuna’s expense. While we’ll see technical improvements to his game — moreso than in the Tagoe fight — Garcia will catch Fortuna with a right hand he won’t see and that will signal the beginning of the end.
It’s been a long time since Fortuna got stopped, but the combination of speed, reach, and size that Garcia will bring to the ring makes it a logical conclusion. Expect Garcia to have Fortuna ready to go anywhere between the seventh and ninth round for a +275 pickup.
Pick: Garcia to win between Rounds 7-9 (+275 at DraftKings)
