Week 16 in the CFL is headlined by a clash between the Montreal Alouettes and Ottawa Redblacks on Saturday afternoon. These teams have the two best records in the league and while Ottawa is unbeaten at home, I'm backing the visitors in my Alouettes vs. Redblacks predictions.
See why in my CFL picks for this East Division showdown on September 21.
Alouettes vs Redblacks prediction
My best bet
Alouettes -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
At first glance, this looks like a perfect spot to fade the Montreal Alouettes who have looked mortal in recent weeks after losing by 14 points to the Lions and settling for a tie against the lowly Stampeders. Especially since the Ottawa Redblacks are 6-0-1 at home with an average scoring margin of +8.6 points per game.
That said, the Als still have the superior roster top-to-bottom and that's even more the case with Ottawa decimated by injuries. The Redblacks just lost their best defender Adarius Pickett to a season-ending injury, joining fellow linebackers Jovan Santos-Knox and Frankie Griffin on the sidelines.
Defensive end Bryce Carter and a pair of starters in the secondary are also on the IL. The injury woes continue on the other side of the ball where an improved offensive line has lost both starting tackles and the WR corps is missing two starters as well.
The Als have also dealt with injuries but they've shown the depth to keep winning and they're getting healthier with Kaion Julien-Grant, Tyler Snead, and Marc-Antoine Dequoy returning to the field in recent weeks. In addition, Montreal just brought back Lwal Uguak, who was waived by the Buccaneers and was a key piece of their defensive line down the stretch last year.
The Alouettes have a complete team with experience, talent, and chemistry on both sides of the ball. That balance should lead them to a win and cover on Saturday.
Alouettes vs Redblacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Alouettes -2.5
Under 49.5
Kaion Julien-Grant Over 4.5 receptions
The Alouettes have allowed a league-low 5.98 yards per play while ranking second in the CFL in scoring defense (22.2 ppg) and opponent pass efficiency (89.2). The Redblacks have been much better defensively at home, where they hold foes to just 19.6 ppg, which has me leaning towards the Under.
While I don't expect a shootout, Montreal should have success through the air against an Ottawa secondary allowing 1,087 passing yards and 9.6 yards per pass attempt over its last three games.
With Austin Mack and Tyson Philpot sidelined by injuries, Kaion Julien-Grant will see plenty of targets. The Canadian wideout was having a breakout season before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 6. After a two-month stint on the IL, he returned to the lineup last week and hauled in eight of 11 targets for 71 yards.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Alouettes vs Redblacks odds
Alouettes vs Redblacks live odds
Alouettes vs Redblacks opening odds
- Spread: Montreal -2.5 | Ottawa +2.5
- Moneyline: Montreal -140 | Ottawa +120
- Over/Under: Over 50 | Under 50
Alouettes vs Redblacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Als are favored in the Grey Cup odds and have the league's best record at 10-2-1 but they've failed to cover in their last three games.
- The Redblacks are 8-4-1 SU and have gone 8-5 against the spread.
- The Redblacks have a league-best 12 big play returns on special teams while the Als have allowed a league-worst 10 big plays.
- Khalan Laborn was signed to Ottawa's practice squad last month but has rushed for 131 yards on 23 carries in two starts while Montreal allows 5.4 yards per rush.
Alouettes vs Redblacks trend
The Alouettes are 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Redblacks.
Alouettes vs Redblacks game info
| Location: | TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Redblacks key injuries
Alouettes: Najee Murray DB (Questionable), Austin Mack WR (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out).
Redblacks: Money Hunter DB (Questionable), Kalil Pimpleton WR (Questionable), Justin Hardy WR (Questionable), Dino Boyd LT (Out), Zack Pelehos RT (Out), Adarius Pickett LB (Out), Jovan Santos-Knox (Out), Frankie Griffin (Out), Bryce Carter DE (Out), Tobias Harris DB (Out), DeVonte Demon RB/KR (Out), Devonte Williams RB (Out), Jamal Morrow RB (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Alouettes vs Redblacks weather
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