With just a month remaining in the 2024 CFL regular season, the Most Outstanding Player odds have seen two stars emerge as front-runners.
After being a massive favourite for the last several months, Alouettes QB Cody Fajardo is now available at close to a pick'em price with Blue Bombers RB Brady Oliveira rapidly gaining ground. Meanwhile, a former two-time MOP winner is lurking in the weeds.
Along with the Grey Cup odds these markets will continue to fluctuate so check back weekly for any MOP odds movement. Here are the latest CFL MOP odds as we enter Week 18. .
Odds to win CFL Most Outstanding Player
| Player | Position |  |
|---|---|---|
 Cody Fajardo |
QB | -115 |
 Brady Oliveira |
RB | -105 |
 Bo Levi Mitchell |
QB | +1,100 |
 Rolan Milligan |
DB | +1,500 |
| Tyrice Beverette |
LB | +4,800 |
 Justin Hardy |
WR | +10,000 |
| Zach Collaros |
QB | +11,000 |
 Justin McInnis |
WR | +12,000 |
| William Stanback |
RB | +12,000 |
| Trevor Harris |
QB | +19,000 |
| Nathan Rourke |
QB | +19,000 |
 Reggie Begelton |
WR | +19,000 |
Odds as of October 3, 2024.
Favorites to win CFL Most Outstanding Player
Cody Fajardo (-115)
The Montreal Alouettes have clearly been the best team in the CFL this year so it's no surprise their quarterback is the MOP favorite. Especially with Fajardo leading the league in completion percentage (73.1%) and ranking second in pass efficiency (104.9).
That said, there are quite a few reasons that Fajardo's odds have swung from -400 to -115 over the last month. Keep in mind the Alouettes went 4-0 when Fajardo was sidelined by injury in July so it's questionable just how important he is to this well-rounded team. He also hasn't been that impressive since coming off the IL, throwing for a modest 895 yards with three touchdowns and two picks over his last four games.
With the Als also just one win away from clinching first place in the East, there's a solid chance that Fajardo could get some extra rest down the stretch, which would give him fewer opportunities to impress voters.
CODY FAJARDO ➡️ TYSON PHILPOT 🔥#CFLGameday: LIVE on TSN, RDS, CBSSN
— CFL (@CFL) July 7, 2024
📲: Stream on CFL+ pic.twitter.com/rLZOcQ1cTR
Brady Oliveira (-105)
Part of the reason why Fajardo was such a massive favorite was that every other top QB in the league had missed significant time either due to injury (Trevor Harris), suspension (Chad Kelly), or trying to earn a roster spot in the NFL (Nathan Rourke).
Another star QB, Zach Collaros, won the MOP Award in 2021 and 2022 but struggled this season with his WR corps decimated by injuries. However, his teammate Brady Oliveira has carried Winnipeg's offense, helping the Bombers win seven games in a row and take over first place in the West Division.
Oliveira was named the CFL's Most Outstanding Canadian last year and he's aiming to be the first running back to win MOP since Jon Cornish in 2013. The 227-pound sledgehammer leads the league with 1,107 rushing yards while adding another 409 yards on 47 receptions.
Oddsmakers were overlooking Oliveira in favor of less deserving QBs for much of the year but his odds have sky-rocketed lately. He was at +4,000 two weeks ago and shifted to +3,000 last week before massive line movement pushed him all the way to -105 after another strong performance in Week 17.
would hate to be a defence facing @bradyoliveira #ForTheW pic.twitter.com/2m4weUN6PW
— x - Winnipeg Blue Bombers (@Wpg_BlueBombers) September 22, 2024
Bo Levi Mitchell (+1,100)
Speaking of crazy line movement, Hamilton QB Bo Levi Mitchell was benched midway through the season and was at +10,000 to win MOP just two weeks ago but he's now in third place at +1,100.
Mitchell won two MOP awards with the Stampeders in 2016 and 2018 and he's enjoying a career resurgence in Hamilton. While he struggled with interceptions earlier in the year, he has cut down on his turnovers over the last month and his stats are tough to ignore. Mitchell leads the league in passing yards (4,359) and passing touchdowns (26) by wide margins and the Tiger-Cats have won four games in a row thanks to their high-octane offense.
With three games remaining in the regular season, the Ticats are two games behind the Argos for the final playoff spot and own the tie-breaker. If Mitchell can lead them to a playoff berth, a third MOP Award could be in the works.
Bo Levi Mitchell ➡️ Tim White pic.twitter.com/QUByRCCbNJ
— JayOnSC (@JayOnSC) September 2, 2024
Most Outstanding Player trends
• Seven out of the last eight MOP winners were QBs, with Hamilton Tiger-Cats wide receiver Brandon Banks being the outlier in 2019.
• Only one defensive player has taken home the accolade, with BC Lions linebacker Solomon Elimimian the first to accomplish the feat in 2014.
• The last player to secure MOP honors in three consecutive seasons was quarterback Doug Flutie, doing so from 1992-1994 as a member of the Calgary Stampeders.
Recent Most Outstanding Player winners
Here are the recent Most Outstanding Player winners dating back to 2010:
| Season | MOP winner |
|---|---|
| 2023 |  Chad Kelly (QB) |
| 2022 |  Zach Collaros (QB) |
| 2021 | Zach Collaros (QB) |
| 2020 | No season: COVID-19 related. |
| 2019 |  Brandon Banks (WR) |
| 2018 |  Bo Levi Mitchell (QB) |
| 2017 |  Mike Reilly (QB) |
| 2016 | Bo Levi Mitchell (QB) |
| 2015 |  Henry Burris (QB) |
| 2014 |  Solomon Elimimian (LB) |
| 2013 | Jon Cornish (RB) |
| 2012 | Chad Owens (WR) |
| 2011 | Travis Lulay (QB) |
| 2010 | Henry Burris (QB) |
How to bet futures odds
Change your strategy at different points in the season
While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.
If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).
In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.
Look for value with underdogs
While the bigger names tend to be strong MVP betting favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.
Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off underperforming seasons due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami, he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media and Derrick Rose, who ended up winning MVP, was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.
The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on the best or second-best regular-season team in the league. The NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 13 of the last 14 seasons.
Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.
