Week 21 in the CFL features a preview of next week's playoff showdown between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Montreal Alouettes. In a strange scheduling quirk, these teams will also face off next week in Montreal for the Eastern Semi-Final, but with nothing at stake this Saturday, it's tough to find a betting angle.
CFL odds finally appeared on Friday with the Als installed as 2.5-point home favorites. Here are my best CFL picks and predictions for Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes on October 28.
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes picks and predictions
If both teams were at full strength and motivated, I'd expect the Montreal Alouettes to win. After all, they have only lost to the three best teams in the CFL this year while going 10-0 straight up and 9-1 against the spread when facing the rest of the league — including a pair of easy victories against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
However, with little to play for in this contest, both coaches will likely rest some starters while keeping things simple in terms of play-calling. Because of that, we're going to have to do a deeper dive to find out what side to bet on.
When it comes to the quarterback situation, there isn't a clear advantage for either team. The Als are surprisingly starting veteran Cody Fajardo and when he inevitably comes out, they have a competent and mobile backup in Caleb Evans behind him. Hamilton will have Bo Levi Mitchell starting on Saturday, but rookie backup Taylor Powell gained valuable experience with eight starts earlier this year. So, whenever he ultimately takes the field, he'll be well-prepared.
That said, while the Ticats aren't resting that many starters, the ones they are giving the night off to have been their top players. Defensive tackle Casey Sayles, defensive back Richard Leonard, and wide receiver Tim White have all been among the best in the CFL at their respective positions and won't dress. Running back James Butler, who has been crucial to their mid-season turnaround, will also sit.
That could be the difference since the Alouettes are planning on starting their top playmakers, including star wideout Austin Mack and running back William Stanback. On defense, Montreal's best players have been tackle Mustafa Johnson, end Shawn Lemon, linebackers Tyrice Beverette and Reggie Stubblefield, and safety Marc-Antoine Dequoy.
Lemon has been shifted to the bench but the rest will start, which means that Montreal will be at virtually full strength on both sides of the ball. Take the Als to win and cover this short spread.
My best bet: Alouettes -1.5 (-110 at Bet99)
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Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
The Alouettes opened as 2.5-point favorites on Friday with the Over/Under set at 47.5. Early money moved that spread to -1.5 while the total ticked down to 46.5.
The Tiger-Cats looked terrible at the start of the season with Mitchell turning the ball over and the defense looking leaky in the secondary. However, they turned things around down the stretch, going 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their final eight games.
Powell kept them afloat when Mitchell and Matthew Shiltz were both sidelined by injuries, and the veteran passers returned to the lineup this month and have looked sharp while platooning in Weeks 18 and 19.
Meanwhile, the Alouettes are on a four-game winning streak and are 5-0 ATS in their last five. They have an impressive 10-7 record but it's become apparent that they're a level below the Top-3 teams in the league.
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games versus East Division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes.
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, October 28, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Richard Leonard DB (Out), Casey Sayles DT (Out), James Butler WR (Out), Tim White WR (Out), Malik Carney DE (Out), Duke Williams WR (Out), Tunde Adeleke DB (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Brandon Kemp OT (Out).
Alouettes: Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Out), Almondo Sewell DT (Doubtful), Sean Jamieson C (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Kordell Rodgers DB (Out), Chandler Worthy WR/KR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
