Week 6 in the CFL begins Thursday night with a clash between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Edmonton Elks. Both teams have struggled this season but are coming off their best performances of the year and will look to build on some positive momentum.
CFL odds opened with the Ticats as 2.5-point road favorites for this matchup before shortening to -1. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Ticats vs. Elks on July 13.
Tiger-Cats vs Elks best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Elks picks and predictions
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are coming off their first win of the season when they edged the Redblacks 21-13 last week. They went 0-for-3 in the red zone in that contest but Matthew Shiltz looked solid under center while James Butler rushed for 62 yards on 17 carries.
The Ticats surrendered 37.3 points per game through their first three contests of the season. However, their defense finally came to play last week, racking up five sacks and intercepting three passes while holding the Redblacks to 186 passing yards. To be fair, they benefited from playing against a pathetic Ottawa offense that was forced to play its third-string quarterback but the Edmonton Elks attack they face this week isn't any better.
The Elks have scored more than 13 points just once this season and that was in a blowout loss where they scored a pair of garbage-time touchdowns during the final three minutes. They picked up 21 first downs against the Riders last Thursday but still ended up with only 11 points and settled for four rouges.
Although the Elks didn't allow many points, they still surrendered 360 net yards. Edmonton ranks last in the CFL in average yards allowed per play (6.60) and big plays allowed (13).
The Elks have been especially awful against the run, getting gashed for 146.8 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry. The Ticats offense has floundered this season due to turnovers but if they cut down on those sloppy errors, they'll be able to move the ball.
Both teams have been complete disappointments this year. However, while the Ticats were expected to be Grey Cup contenders and have looked subpar, the Elks were only expected to be somewhat competitive and instead look like the worst team in the CFL once again.
They also generally haven't benefited from home-field advantage at Commonwealth Stadium but continue to get the customary bump on the spread when they play at home. They've gone just 0-18 SU and 3-15 ATS at home since the start of the 2021 season, which is automatic fade territory with this number sitting at close to a pick'em.
My best bet: Tiger-Cats -1 (-110 at bet365)
Tiger-Cats vs Elks same-game parlay
Tiger-Cats -2.5 (-115)
James Butler Over 62.5 rush yds (-114)
Kevin Brown Over 52.5 rush yds (-114)
Both Hamilton and Edmonton have extremely talented lead backs in Butler and Brown. However, with both teams getting pummeled early in most games this season, they've often been forced to abandon the run.
Given that we're seeing a close spread for this contest, expect this game to be competitive enough that both backs get plenty of carries. That should result in decent rushing yards totals against the two-worst run defenses in the league.
The Elks are giving up a pathetic 146.8 rushing yards per game which is almost 30 ypg more than second-worst Hamilton, who surrenders 118.8 ypg. Even in their victory against the Redblacks, the Ticats still gave up 136 yards on the ground.
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Tiger-Cats vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Ticats at -2.5 and the O/U at 42.5. Neither line has shifted from those opening numbers.
The Ticats lost by double digits in each of their first three games of the year but managed to win and cover versus the Redblacks last week. It's tough to give them much credit for a victory against a poor Ottawa side that finished the game with Dustin Crum at QB but they showed promise in several areas.
Most importantly, they cut down on the brutal turnovers that have killed them since the start of the 2022 season. Shiltz has spent most of his CFL career as a backup but he played well when called upon last year and he's looked better than the injured Bo Levi Mitchell who was given a massive contract in the offseason to lead the offense.
The Elks lost 12-11 on a boneheaded play at the end of the game last week. They are now 0-5 straight up but they did manage to cover the spread for the first time this season.
After being benched in Week 4, Edmonton QB Taylor Cornelius threw for a season-high 226 passing yards with an interception against the Riders. While that isn't exactly impressive it's a lot better than his play through the first few weeks of the year.
Cornelius' biggest plays came with his feet as he rushed for 58 yards when the pocket broke down, which will happen a lot behind this shoddy offensive line. The Elks really haven't looked good in any phase of the game this season but their biggest weakness has been in the trenches with a leaky offensive line and a defensive line that can't consistently get pressure.
Their best pass-rusher A.C. Leonard had three sacks last week but is listed as questionable for Thursday due to a hamstring injury.
The total is tough to handicap because while both offenses have struggled to get into the end zone the defenses rank last and second-last in the CFL in both yards and points allowed per game.
Tiger-Cats vs Elks trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Edmonton. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Elks.
Tiger-Cats vs Elks game info
| Location: | Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Thursday, July 13, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Tiger-Cats vs Elks key injuries
Tiger-Cats: A.C. Leonard DE (Questionable), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Ed Gainey DB (Out), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Geno Lewis WR (Out), Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Out), Andrew Garnett OT (Out), Josiah St. John OT (Out).
Elks: Mason Bennett DE (Out), Tunde Adeleke DB (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Alex Fontana OL (Out), Dylan Wynn DT (Out), Bo Levi Mitchell QB (Out), Anthony Johnson WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
