It's Week 1 of the CFL season and we've got a barnburner on Saturday night as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats battle the Saskatchewan Roughriders at Mosaic Stadium. These should be two of the top teams in the league and oddsmakers are expecting a close game with CFL betting lines opening with the Riders as slim 1.5-point home faves, before shifting to -2.5.
Here are our best free Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders picks and predictions for Saturday, June 11, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders odds
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Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders Week 1 predictions
Predictions made on 6/9/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders game info
• Location: Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Tiger-Cats at Roughriders betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Cariel Brooks DB (Questionable), Lemar Durant WR (Out).
Roughriders: Keion Adams DE (Questionable), Kyran Moore WR (Out), Micah Teitz LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 14-6 in the Ticats last 20 games overall while going 7-2 in their previous nine contests on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Roughriders.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favourite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Both of these squads once again have title aspirations with Hamilton finishing as the Grey Cup runner-up in each of the past two seasons, and Saskatchewan coming up short against the champion Blue Bombers in the West Division Finals both times.
This Tiger-Cats squad is relatively similar to the one that pushed the Bombers into overtime in the Grey Cup last year. Hamilton lost end Ja'Gared Davis, but got even better on the interior of their defensive line after signing three-time All-Star Micah Johnson. The Ticats' defense was one of the best in the league last year, and with their terrific secondary returning intact along with the elite linebacker tandem of Simoni Lawrence and Jovan Santos-Knox, it should be just as good in 2022.
Dane Evans is now the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback after the departure of Jeremiah Masoli. While 2019 MOP Brandon Banks also left in the offseason, he's 34 years old and sharply declined last year. Hamilton's offensive line vastly improved during the second half of last year and its running game picked up steam with Don Jackson emerging as the starter down the stretch.
The Riders' offense is led by QB Cody Fajardo. who was named a West Division All-Star in 2019 and completed 69.6% of his passes for 2,970 yards, while adding another 468 yards on the ground in 13 games in 2021. The Riders' offense struggled to make big plays last season, but with 2019 All-Star wideout Shaq Evans now fully recovered from a broken foot and Duke Williams in the fold for a full season (he joined the team in Week 12 last year), they should be much better at attacking deep.
Unfortunately, the Riders' offensive line has question marks and they could find it tough to run the ball after saying bye to William Powell.
On defense, the departures of Johnson and Jonathan Woodard hurt the line, while Ed Gainey and Loucheiz Purifoy will be tough to replace in their secondary. To be fair, the Riders should still be stout on defense but they won't be able to apply as much pressure on opposing quarterbacks or cover as well on the back end.
With the Ticats having better balance on offense and the superior all-around defense, we'll take them with the points.
Prediction: Ticats +2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The strength of both of these teams lies in their defensive play while there are far more questions about how consistently they will move the chains. Hamilton's defense was especially dominant last year, limiting foes to just 17.4 points per game, but the Roughriders' defensive unit wasn't far behind and allowed 18.9 ppg at home.
Evans was very productive at QB in 2019 but wasn't quite as impressive last season, and the Ticats talent at receiver isn't quite what it was three years ago. Meanwhile, the Riders' offensive line has to show major improvement, and neither Shaq Cooper nor Jamal Morrow look like they'll make much of an impact in the ground game.
The trends also strongly point towards the Under with the Ticats going 6-14 O/U in their last 20 games, and the Riders going below the total in seven of their previous nine contests. The Under has also cashed in four consecutive meetings between these sides.
Prediction: Under 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
It's really tough to be confident about betting Unders until we see the impact that the new CFL rules will have on offense. That said, this matchup has all the ingredients to be a lower-scoring battle of attrition between a pair of Grey Cup contenders.
With the total also surging up to 47.5 after an opening number of 42.5, we'll look at that as being a bit too much of an over-correction and play the Under.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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