Florida vs LSU College World Series Picks and Predictions: Championship Kicks Off With Pitcher's Duel

Game 1 of the 2023 College World Series gets underway Saturday night in Omaha.

The No. 2 seed Florida Gators have romped through the competition and will face the No. 5 seed LSU Tigers, who have advanced in thrilling fashion. 

This will mark the fifth time two SEC teams have advanced to the final and is a rematch of the 2017 championship.

With Ty Floyd on the mound for LSU and Brandon Sproat getting the call for Florida, I have reason to believe that there’s value on the total yet again in Omaha.

Read on for my best bet and full college baseball picks and predictions for LSU vs. Florida on Saturday, June 24. 

Florida vs LSU odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on June 23, 2023.

Florida vs LSU predictions

Florida’s biggest advantage in Game 1 has nothing to do about what will happen on the field — it has to do with rest. The Gators’ pitching staff will be at full strength after they blew through their side of the bracket without suffering a single defeat, giving them two full days of rest before tonight's clash with LSU.

LSU enters with just one off day after defeating Wake Forest in 11 innings on Thursday to win four games in four days. The Tigers battled back from the loser's bracket in scintillating fashion but taxed their starting pitching in the process. 

Ace Paul Skenes threw 120 pitches in the team’s most recent game, and that came on just four days’ rest. If we do see him in Omaha, it’ll likely be for less than his full workload and later on in the series. 

It’s unclear who will start beyond Saturday night, but Game 1’s starter will likely be Ty Floyd. The right-hander has a 7-0 record and a 4.45 ERA this season. He’s allowed just six combined earned runs in three starts during this postseason run, although he hasn’t chewed up many innings (11 1/3 IP). He’ll be working on short rest and it’s unclear how long he will last tonight.

Brandon Sproat, a Top-80 prospect in this year’s MLB Draft,  gets the call on the mound for the Gators. He’ll be all systems go considering he’s working on seven days of rest. He’s been reliable in the postseason and has notched four straight quality starts.

Unders have been on a tremendous run during the College World Series, going 0-12-1 O/U to the opening number and 2-10-1 to the closing number, per VSiN. 

It’s difficult to get an accurate track of the wind, which should play a factor in Game 1. The forecast calls for winds of 10 to 20 mph blowing to the northwest. Charles Schwab field faces southeast, so by my approximation, the wind will mostly be blowing to the first-base side and slightly inward. 

Omaha’s field dimensions are larger than the typical college field — it’s 408 feet to center field, 375 to both gaps, and 335 to both foul poles. It’s not surprising that we’ve seen a run to the Under thus far in the event and I expect that to continue in Game 1 in a solid starting pitching matchup. 

The Tigers have major question marks in the pitching department for Games 2 and 3, but Floyd is a fine option in Game 1 as he’s allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once since the start of May. The bullpen behind him has pulled things together lately, notching a 2.85 ERA in the tournament.

Sproat is looking the best he has all season and has a terrific bullpen behind him. The Gators have been around a 2.00 ERA in relief since the start of May and have one of the best closers in the game in Brandon Neely. Past them, Ryan Slater and Cade Fisher are two fine options with experience in the postseason. 

I’ll take the Under as Game 1’s best bet. 

My best bet: Under 9 (-105 at DraftKings)

Florida vs LSU moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Florida is a slight favorite for Game 1, sitting at -130 across most sportsbooks at of the time of this writing. The comeback on LSU can be had for EVEN money.

Surprisingly enough, this will be the first meeting between these teams this season. Despite being SEC members, they never squared off in regular-season play. 

The Gators have been on fire, notching eight straight wins entering the final. 

The advantage in the rest department is such that Florida has to be favored in Game 1. That being said, LSU’s lineup is so potent that I can’t recommend playing against the Tigers at chalk. LSU leads the nation with 608 total runs scored this season and that’s no accident.

Dylan Crews might be selected first overall in the MLB Draft and is crushing opposing pitching to the tune of a .423 batting average and 1.278 OPS. Tommy “Tanks” White, who hit the walk-off home run in extras against Wake, has a 1.158 OPS while catcher Hayden Travinski sports a solid 1.219 OPS. 

Florida also lineup averaging 7.9 runs per game. Sluggers like Wyatt Langford (1.251 OPS), Jac Caglianone (1.123 OPS), and Josh Rivers (1.108 OPS) all pack a punch. That being said, this LSU lineup is something special and I give the Tigers the advantage at the plate. I’d be inclined to take the plus money in this series whenever possible as the margins are razor thin. 

The total is set at 9 across most books, although 9.5 is also available. The odds are heavily juiced on the Under at 9.5 (-136 currently), so I prefer better odds on 9 (-105) if playing the Under. There will likely be a lot of line movement as the weather forecast changes throughout what is expected to be a stormy day. I’d play the Under down to a flat 8 if that’s where the line does moves. 

Florida vs LSU game info

Starting pitchers

Brandon Sproat (11-5, 4.66 ERA): Sproat has pitched three times in the postseason and has posted eerily similar results each time out. He’s allowed three earned runs while striking out seven across six innings of work in all three outings. That’s ironic because his primary knock during the regular season is that he struggled with consistency. After not throwing back-to-back quality starts once during the regular season, he’s now riding a four-game quality start streak since the start of the SEC Tournament. 

Ty Floyd (7-0, 4.45 ERA): Floyd will be pitching on four days rest as we last saw him on Monday against Wake Forest, going five strong innings while allowing two earned runs and striking out 10. He hasn’t lasted more than five innings in any of his last four starts, so it’ll be interesting to see how long he makes it on Saturday. His fastball sits in the mod-90s and he complements that mostly with a slider and curveball, although he will also throw a changeup every now and then. 

Flordia vs LSU weather

It’ll be a warm day of 92 degrees that cools off to 64 degrees at night. There will be winds of 10 to 20 mph but the real concern is that there are possible stay showest and thunderstorms earlier in the day.

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