Florida vs LSU College World Series Picks and Predictions: Expect Plenty of Offense in Game 2

The LSU Tigers grabbed a thrilling 11-inning victory in Game 1 of the 2023 College World Series. If Jay Johnson’s squad hopes to wrap things up early on Sunday, they’ll need to get through dominant Florida Gators right hander Hurston Waldrep. 

Ty Floyd was terrific for the Tigers in Game 1, as his 17 strikeouts tied for the second-most ever in a CWS game. That being said, the pitching situation is a bit murkier for Game 2.

Despite muted offensive performances from both sides in the opener, the weather forecast in Omaha may turn the tide this afternoon. Read on for my best bet and full college baseball betting picks for LSU vs. Florida on Sunday, June 25. 

Florida vs LSU odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on June 23, 2023.

Florida vs LSU predictions

The Florida Gators entered the CWS final with a rest advantage after they wrapped up their side of the bracket a day early and therefore had two full days to recover. The Tigers, meanwhile, needed to win four games in four days to advance  — the last of which came in extra innings. The rest situation still looms large after Game 1, although in a different way than anticipated heading into the weekend.

LSU was able to turn the tides as starter Ty Floyd lasted eight innings while Florida starter Brandon Sproat lasted just four. It was a massive, record-breaking performance from Floyd that kept the Tigers’ bullpen relatively fresh. They used just one relief pitcher, so where does that leave the Tigers for Game 2? 

Lefty Nate Ackenhausen likely gets the nod, and while he’s been effective with a 2.86 ERA, he’ll be making just his second start of the season and has thrown just 28 1/3 innings. Thatcher Hurd and his 5.97 ERA, among others, will be waiting in the wings.

The LSU arms have stepped up in a big way this postseason, but let’s not forget they had an ERA near five in relief this year and now face a potent Gators lineup that should be more comfortable at the plate in Game 2. Wyatt Langford (1.238 OPS) could be a Top 5 draft pick, while Jac Caglianone (31 HR, 85 RBI) and Josh Rivera (1.087 OPS) are too talented to stay down for long. 

The Gators, meanwhile, have essentially used just three relief pitchers this postseason — which makes Game 1’s usage so concerning. They burned up two of those relief pitchers as Cade Fisher and Brandon Neely both threw over 50 pitches on Saturday. While Hurston Waldrep is a fantastic starter, it’s unclear what the bullpen situation will look like behind him. 

To be fair, Waldrep has been a star. That being said, he hasn’t been facing lineups quite as dangerous as LSU’s. Six Tigers have an OPS above 1.000 and it all starts up top with Dylan Crews (.423 average, consensus No. 1 MLB Draft prospect) and Tommy “Tanks” White (.370 average, 23 HR, 100 RBI). Waldrep was tagged for at least three earned runs in seven of his starts against SEC competition so while he’s an elite arm, he’s not infallible. 

The most important factor for Game 2’s handicap is the wind. The forecast is calling for sustained winds of 21 to 25 mph blowing out to center field throughout the game with gusts up to 45 mph. Omaha has been very windy, but it’s been mostly blowing in toward home plate and suppressing potential home run balls. Sunday will be the exact opposite — the conditions are a hitter’s dream.

There have been a lot of low-scoring games in Omaha and that’s creating a deflated total. With these two lineups playing in a game with extremely favorable hitting conditions, this total should be in the double digits. I’d play the Over up to 11. 

My best bet: Over 9.5 (+105 at bet365)

Florida vs LSU moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The current moneyline is close as most books are offering -110 to -115 on either side. 

One has to give Florida the starting pitching matchup considering how great Waldrep has been lately. He’s made three starts in the tournament, allowing just two earned runs while notching 37 strikeouts across 21 innings. 

Pitching in the SEC is far from easy. If Waldrep’s 3.99 doesn’t impress you at first glance, consider that he and LSU star Paul Skenes are the only two pitchers in the conference with an ERA below four. 

I’d consider the bullpen situation a wash while maybe giving LSU a slight advantage. The Gators have one of the best bullpens in the country and normally would have a leg up in that department — but that’s in question now after burning two of their top relief arms (Neely, Fisher) in Game 1. 

The total is listed at 9.5. It’s a curious handicap considering totals are 2-11-1 O/U in Omaha, but the wind is fiercely blowing out to center field.

LSU has the better lineup from top to bottom and is in better form. Florida’s top-of-the-lineup has gone cold and the team’s plate discipline was all over the place in Game 2. While I’m betting on a high-scoring game due to the environment, there’s one lineup I trust much more than the other — LSU’s. 

Florida vs LSU game info

Starting pitchers

Nate Ackenhausen (2-0, 2.86 ERA): LSU has not officially announced a starter, although it’s assumed that the left-handed Ackenhausen will get the call. We last saw the bulky 6-foot-2, 240-pound hurler when he held Tennessee scoreless over six innings in his first start of the season. He’s been a reliable arm out of the pen, throwing 28 1/3 effective innings across 16 appearances. His approach involves avoiding walks and the home run ball. 

Hurston Waldrep (10-3, 3.99 ERA): Waldrep is one of the best right-handed pitchers in the country. His fastball sits in the 95 to 99 mph range and he compliments that with a nasty split-change and a slider. He checks in as the No. 20 prospect in the MLB Draft according to MLB.com. The 6-foot-2 dealer has dominated in the tournament, allowing just two earned runs across three starts while striking out 37 across 21 innings. 

Florida vs LSU weather

It’ll be another warm and dry day in Omaha with plenty of wind. There will be sustained wind of 20 to 25 mph blowing out to center field throughout the game.

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