Florida vs LSU College World Series Picks and Predictions: Tigers Bounce Back to Capture Title

The Florida Gators rebounded in a massive way in Game 2, with their 24-4 victory being the most lopsided score in the history of the College World Series final. All eyes will be on the LSU Tigers to see how they respond after such a historical thrashing.

With things knotted up at one game a piece, it all boils down to a deciding Game 3 Monday night. LSU looks for its seventh national championship, while Florida aims for its second. 

I believe there’s a good reason the Tigers are the favorite despite getting blown out a day ago. Read on for my best bet and full college baseball betting picks for LSU vs. Florida on Monday, June 26. 

Florida vs LSU odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on June 26, 2023.

Florida vs LSU predictions

LSU crumbled in Game 2... committing five errors — a CWS Finals game record — while allowing 23 hits, tied for another CWS Finals record you don't want your name attached to. That being said, it was a very uncharismatic game from a tremendously talented team, and I believe there’s strong reason to expect a bounceback in the finale. 

The Tigers have no issues getting runners on base, but getting them home is a different story... stranding a whopping 30 base runners over the first two games and going 0-for-6 with the bases loaded. It’s no surprise LSU has gotten runners aboard considering it leads the nation in on-base percentage,  but what's really puzzling is that same team with a .980 OPS and .305 batting average has been unable to find a hit when it needs it the most.

The Tigers' ability to get one base should pay dividends eventually, and they face a pitcher on Monday that has struggled to find the strike zone at times — Jac Caglianone. While the 6-foot-5 LHP is immensely talented, he’s still a bit raw as a pitcher. He had Tommy John surgery two years ago and didn’t pitch in his first year in Gainsville, instead playing first base full time. 

He’s walked 52 batters across 73 1/3 innings, and LSU will be happy to work counts and get something to hit. With the wind blowing out to right field at 10 mph, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Tigers bash some extra-base hits once those runners are aboard. 

Thatcher Hurd is expected to get the call for the Tigers, and while his surface-level stats won’t wow you, he held Wake Forest to a single run across six innings in two games in Omaha. He possesses a ton of talent and a devastating slider. They’ll likely only need a few innings from him — a role he’s shined in recently. The situation behind him is where it gets interesting. 

Star pitcher Paul Skenes — the undisputed best pitcher in the country and potential No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft — is expected to be available for Game 3, although it’s to be determined in what capacity. The gas-pumping righty has already thrown a whopping 243 pitching in the CWS, including 120 against Wake Forest on Thursday. 

He’s working on three days of rest and is unlikely to see anywhere near a full workload, although I'd be very surprised if we didn’t see him for at least an inning or two (if not more) tonight. That alone is a huge boost for LSU — for morale if not for prolonged activity. Head coach Jay Johnson has been noncommittal with his comments, and Skenes’ entourage will likely have a say in the matter as he’s destined to be a top pick in this year’s MLB Draft. 

The rest of the Tigers' pen is decently stocked as both Riley Cooper and Griffin Herring should be hot to go. They’ve thrown a combined 13 1/3 scoreless innings in Omaha, while Gavin Guidry's 3.71 ERA and 40 Ks should be available after throwing just 21 pitches thus far in the series.

I think LSU is the better team in this series and that will show itself in Game 3. The Tigers have proven adept at getting runners on base all year long and it’s only a matter of time before that bears fruit. I’ll bet on the Tigers winning their seventh national championship

My best bet: LSU moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Florida vs LSU moneyline and Over/Under analysis

LSU is the favorite in Game 3, sitting between -135 and -140 depending on the book. The comeback on Florida is in the +105 to +110 range. 

Caglianone takes the mound for Florida after playing first base in the first two games while smashing two dingers a day ago. The sophomore is listed as the No. 1 prospect in next year’s draft according to FutureStarsSeries and is one of the best two-way prospects we’ve seen in a while. 

That being said, he projects as a first baseman in all probability at the next level. He’s still raw as a pitcher and is finding his command — a dangerous proposition when facing this potent LSU offense. 

The total is set at 9.0 across most books, although 8.5 is still available with the Over heavily juiced. 

I’m comfortable projecting LSU to score a handful of runs as explained above. Florida does have three good relief pitchers in Brandon Neely, Case Fisher, and Ryan Slater, but the Tigers have already seen Neely and Fisher throw over 50 pitches this series and are therefore familiar with their offerings. 

The Gators are facing an LSU pitching situation that is all over the place. While I think the Tigers will find ways to limit the damage, it’d be surprising if Florida didn’t contribute to the total after breaking records at the plate in Game 2.

Monday’s forecast calls for winds of 10.3 mph blowing out to right field at the time of first pitch — still favorable for runs, but not nearly as much as Sunday's 21 to 25 mph. The wind is expected to settle down a tad in the later innings.

Florida vs LSU game info

Starting pitchers

Thatcher Hurd (7-2, 5.96 ERA): Johnson has not officially announced a starter, but Hurd is likely to be the next man up for hurting for starting pitching options. Hurd has pitched well in Omaha with a 1.50 ERA across six innings and most recently threw three scoreless frames against Wake Forest on Thursday. He’ll be working on three days of rest, although he threw just 47 pitches in his last outing. 

Jac Caglianone (7-3, 3.68): One of the many reasons that college baseball is awesome is the presence of two-way players. One day removed from blasting two home runs as the starting first baseman, Caglianone takes the mound in a deciding Game 3. He’s allowed just a .186 batting average against while striking out 85 batters in 73 1/3 innings of work. 

Florida vs LSU weather

The weather is supposed to be relatively calm in Omaha as current forecasts call for sunny skies at the time of first pitch, with a temperature in the low-80s and winds of 10 mph blowing out to right field. 

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