South Africa vs India T20 World Cup Final Picks, Predictions & Odds: Bowling In the Deep

South Africa and India meet in the T20 World Cup Final on Saturday morning and our expert betting predictions believe there's plenty of value to be had in the bowling market. Find out who our resident cricket expert is backing and why.

Tom Oldfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tom Oldfield • Betting Analyst
Jun 28, 2024 • 17:29 ET • 4 min read
Kuldeep Yadav India Cricket
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The stage is set for fireworks in Barbados on Saturday as South Africa and India square off in the Men’s T20 World Cup final.

Both teams boast unbeaten records at this tournament, with South Africa coming off a one-sided semifinal victory over Afghanistan on Wednesday and India outplaying England to punch their ticket.

The Indians get the favorites tag in the latest cricket odds, but there’s no shortage of star power in the two line-ups for this heavyweight final, headlined by Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Heinrich Klaasen, and Kagiso Rabada.

My South Africa vs India predictions take a closer look at the top betting angles.

South Africa vs India picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
Kuldeep Yadav Over 1.5 wickets (+125 at bet365)

My analysis
The India bowling attack has put together a sensational tournament – and Jasprit Bumrah has rightly received a lot of the plaudits, living up to his billing as the premier bowler in the world.

But the Indian spinners have been excellent too. They put a stranglehold on the England batters on Thursday and will look to repeat that trick this weekend against a South Africa team playing in a World Cup final for the first time.

I see left-arm wrist spinner Kuldeep Yadav as the X-factor for India, and the Over on 1.5 wickets jumps out as a high-value prop. Kuldeep has bagged 10 wickets across his last four outings, hitting this Over in each of those contests.

With figures of 3-for-19 against both England and Bangladesh, he’s found the pitches in the Caribbean to his liking, and India’s ability to take early wickets should pave the way for Kuldeep to be in attack mode against batters who aren’t yet settled at the crease.

As usual, he’ll be entrusted with the critical middle overs on Saturday, and that may well mean matchups against South Africa power hitters Heinrich Klaasen, David Miller, and Tristan Stubbs. But Kuldeep’s variety and changes of pace have bamboozled top-class batsmen through this World Cup.

He could be especially dangerous if South Africa are chasing a big score and have to be ultra-aggressive. Risky shots are often perilous against Kuldeep and fellow left-arm spinner Axar Patel.

With India looking for their first major tournament triumph since 2013, there’s going to be some tension in the air at Kensington Oval, but I see Kuldeep holding his nerve and adding to his impressive wicket haul here.

South Africa vs India same-game parlay (SGP)

Kuldeep Yadav Over 1.5 wickets

India moneyline

Rohit Sharma Over 28.5 runs

While neither team has lost a game at this World Cup, this feels like India’s moment. With the exception of a nail-biting win over Pakistan, the Indians have cruised through this tournament, and I’m adding their moneyline to this SGP.

There are question marks over how South Africa will handle the big occasion and, perhaps more justifiably, how they will navigate this in-form India bowling line-up. The ball-striking of Quinton de Kock and Klaasen, in particular, could provide a counter-punch, but there’s very little margin for error.

The Barbados forecast calls for thunderstorms this weekend, so India’s big-game experience may also provide an edge if we get multiple rain delays. The Indians handled the interruptions with ease in their semifinal win – and if the final can’t be completed on Saturday, the tournament includes a backup day on Sunday.

One of the most decisive spells of this final is likely to be the South Africans’ opening overs with the new ball against Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli. Rabada and Marco Jansen have combined for 18 wickets at this World Cup, but Rohit is in sparkling form, including 57 on Thursday and a devastating 92 off 41 balls in the prior game against Australia.

The Over on his total runs on Saturday feels like a must-have prop. The powerplay overs offer the best scoring opportunities, and I’m picking the India captain to lead from the front with another classy innings.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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South Africa vs India odds

South Africa India
+162 Moneyline 200
Over 318.5 (-120) Total Under 318.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on 6-28

South Africa vs India game info

Location: Kensington Oval, Bridgetown, Barbados
Date: Saturday, June 29, 2024
Time: 10:30 a.m. ET
TV: WillowTV (Fubo)
Weather: Scattered thunderstorms, but temperatures in the mid-80s.

Not intended for use in MA.
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