Sky-high expectations are nothing new to the Dallas Cowboys, and neither is falling short of those prospects. The Cowboys are home in Week 2 hosting the Atlanta Falcons as NFL betting favorites, trying to avoid an 0-2 start.
Dallas’ 20-17 road loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night came with plenty of salty wounds, losing key players to injury on both sides of the ball. The Falcons also lost their Week 1 matchup, getting blown away 38-25 by the Seattle Seahawks at home.
Here are our best NFL free picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Cowboys on September 20.
Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys betting preview
Key Injuries
Falcons: Marlon Davidson DT (Out), Charles Harris DE (Out), Kendall Sheffield CB (Out)
Cowboys: Tyron Smith T (Out), Blake Jarwin TE (Out), Leighton Vander Esch LB (Out), Sean Lee LB (Out), Cam Erving T (Out), La'el Collins T (Out), Jourdan Lewis T (Questionable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Cowboys.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
I featured this spread in my “Bet Now/Bet Later” article earlier in the week, suggesting Atlanta backers take the points and take ‘em quick, with the line dropping. The Falcons opened +7 Sunday night and have since dropped to +4.5 as of mid-week, with a laundry list of ailments thinning the Cowboys’ depth charts.
Despite the one-sided score versus Seattle, Atlanta did manage to post some solid numbers. The Falcons, who led 14-12 at halftime, got 450 passing yards and two touchdowns from Matt Ryan, with three receivers boasting 114 yards or more, including Julio Jones, who nabbed nine balls for 157 total yards.
The Cowboys secondary is bad and desperately relying on the front seven to get pressure and hurry opposing passers. Dallas had high hopes for the defensive line heading into 2020 but it struggled to get to Rams quarterback Jared Goff and recorded only one sack on Sunday.
Atlanta allowed Ryan to get sacked twice versus the Seahawks and put a lot of care into improving its pass protection. The Cowboys are still learning new systems under defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and are a step behind due to no preseason and many fresh faces. Too bad a step is all Jones and this dangerous receiving corps need to exploit Big D.
PREDICTION: Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
You could make a kick-ass fantasy football roster with just the skill players for these two teams. And all that weaponry adds up to a 52.5-point total for Week 2 – currently the tallest Over/Under on the board. The Over seems like a no-brainer, considering how bad the Falcons defense looked in Week 1, but damn it if the contrarian in us says “Under”.
Dallas has major gaps in the offensive line and the best way to keep Dak Prescott upright it a steady stream of Ezekiel Elliott - on the ground and through the air – which keeps the gains short and the clock running.
Zeke had a huge day versus L.A., totaling 96 yards on 22 carriers with a rushing TD while hauling in three balls for 31 yards and a receiving score. Seahawks’ RB Chris Carson tore the Falcons defense a new “A” with his dual-threat talents last Sunday, setting the table for Zeke to feast in Week 2.
And while we gave due respect to Atlanta’s passing game, head coach Dan Quinn wants better balance between the passing and the rushing snaps to improve the team’s success in play action. The Falcons had to give up on the ground when Seattle went up big in the third quarter, but expect more from RB Todd Gurley, who had 56 yards on only 14 carries and a TD versus the Seahawks.
One more thing: these offenses stunk on crucial third and fourth downs in Week 1. The Falcons converted half of their third-down tries but ended up 0 for 4 on fourth downs. Dallas moved the chains on just a quarter of its third-down snaps and was 1 for 3 on fourth downs.
PREDICTION: Under 52.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Prescott had an OK offering in Week 1 and tacked on a bonus 30 yards rushing on three attempts versus the Rams. With the holes on the offensive line, Dak could find himself getting flushed out of the pocket and put on the run plenty this Sunday.
Prescott collected 277 yards rushing last season, 305 in 2018, and ran for 357 in 2017. While his rushing production has dipped as he’s become more comfortable in the pocket, he normally has one of the best o-lines in the league keeping him clean.
Atlanta watched Seattle dual-threat Russell Wilson pick up 29 yards on three carries last weekend and with the Cowboys coming up empty on third down so often against Los Angeles, Prescott could be pressured to pick up those precious yards with his legs.
PREDICTION: Dak Prescott Over 12.5 rushing yards (-118)
Falcons vs Cowboys betting card
- Atlanta +4.5 (-110)
- Under 52.5 (-110)
- Dak Prescott Over 12.5 rushing yards (-118)
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