After dropping ten games in a row, the Carolina Panthers are riding a two-game winning streak and will travel to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday to take on a 0-4 Atlanta Falcons team that will also be on short rest. Both teams will likely be missing some important pieces of their offenses as Carolina will be without RB Christian McCaffrey for one more week and Atlanta WR Julio Jones missed the second half of Week 4 and is questionable.
The Falcons opened as -3.5 favorites but have since seen that price fall to -2 on the heels of Monday night’s performance against the Packers. The total opened as low as 51 on some books but has increased quickly to 53.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Panthers vs Falcons on October 11 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions of other NFL Week 5 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Panthers: Eli Apple CB (Out), Dennis Daley OF (Out), Christian McCaffrey RB (Out).
Falcons: Julio Jones WR (Out), Damontae Kazee S (Out), Jaylinn Hawkins S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Combined, both teams have crushed the Over when playing against an NFC opponent; hitting the Over in 12 of their 14 most recent matches. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Falcons.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This marks the second time Atlanta has opened as the favorite and the Falcons are 1-3 ATS, coming off a 30-16 loss on Monday night. Matt Ryan and the offense managed just 327 yards of offense (in a losing game script) and finished 2-for-13 on third downs. Ryan looked visibly frustrated late in the fourth quarter on Monday and his play has a lot to do with his frustrations: Ryan has completed his lowest percentage of passes since 2011 and will likely be without WR Julio Jones on Sunday.
The Panthers have ripped off two SU wins as underdogs in consecutive weeks and this offense is still very competent, even without RB Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers sit in the Top 12 in yards per game as QB Teddy Bridgewater is completing 73 percent of his passes while throwing for nearly 290 yards per game. Bridgewater will get to roast one of the thinnest secondaries in the league, as injuries to the Falcons’ safeties have hit comedic levels with their Top 4 safeties out or questionable for Week 5. Atlanta is allowing the fourth-highest yards per pass attempt in the league and letting opposing QBs complete over 72 percent of their passes.
The Houston Texans have already made a coaching change and Atlanta’s HC Dan Quinn could be next if the Falcons pull a no-show in Week 5. The home team is coming into the match on short rest, will likely be without their best playmaker and frustrations are starting to mount and become visible. Sign us up for the points and the Panthers.
PREDICTION: Carolina +2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Atlanta has seen two totals higher than 52.5 this year and is 3-1 O/U. The Falcons have a great formula for hitting the Over: good-to-great passing game and the league’s second-worst passing defense. Their ability to defend the pass could be even worse with more injuries to the secondary, but the offense also looked rough last week versus a Packers pass defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league.
Ryan failed to throw a TD pass against Green Bay, the first time he had failed to toss a TD since Week 12 of last year. The Falcons have allowed at least 30 points in every game this year, but Ryan has looked aged in 2020 with arm strength being a real problem.
Carolina has played the pass much better than the run this year, which is very important when looking into the total. The Panthers’ defense is allowing just 227 passing yards per game which is the seventh-best mark in the league. They will likely face Calvin Ridley as the top wideout threat, and he was held catch-less last week versus Jaire Alexander and the Packers.
Early games have been crushing the Overs, but we are going to have to fade that trend and hit the Under as Atlanta is a mess right now and we don’t want to have to rely on Ryan and the offense to score points in catch-up mode.
PREDICTION: Under 54 (-110)
Player prop pick
Panthers RB Mike Davis has tried to do his best CMC impersonation while the star RB works his way back from injury. The offense hasn’t changed much with McCaffrey as Davis has been featured in both the run and the pass. It’s the latter that we are more interested in, however, as Davis has 21 catches since Week 3, which he has turned into 146 yards and one receiving TD. With McCaffrey likely returning next week or Week 7, the Panthers could lean on Davis a little more before his role is diminished.
The Falcons allowed Green Bay running backs to catch 13 balls for 135 yards and a TD last week and have let four different RBs record at least five catches through four weeks of football.
Sunday’s matchup is a great spot for Davis, as he probably knows his showcase time is coming to an end with CMC coming back soon. He has topped his total yards prop in back-to-back weeks and is a great spot to do the same this week.
PREDICTION: Mike Davis Over 94.5 total yards (-115)
Panthers vs Falcons betting card
- Carolina +2 (-110)
- Under 54 (-110)
- Mike Davis Over 94.5 total yards (-115)
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