Whaddya know? The Atlanta Falcons held a 23-0 lead and didn’t piss it away in Week 6’s win over the Minnesota Vikings, turning over a new leaf for the long-cursed franchise in its first game since firing coach Dan Quinn.
The NFL betting odds are buying into new-look Atlanta by setting it as a 3-point home favorite hosting the Detroit Lions in Week 7. Detroit knows all about blowing leads and its 2-3 record could look much better if not for a couple collapses this season.
Here are our NFL free picks for Lions vs. Falcons on October 25.
Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons betting preview
Weather
This game will be played inside a dome at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions of other Week 7 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Lions: Austin Bryant DE (Out), Desmond Trufant CB (Out), Bo Scarbrough RB (Out).
Falcons: Jaylinn Hawkins S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Falcons are 15-23 ATS (39.5 percent) as home favorites since 2015. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Falcons.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It’s amazing what 40 points can do. Atlanta was dead in the water until Sunday’s win over Minnesota, posting back-to-back efforts of 16 points the two weeks prior while giving up 32.2 points per game in the opening five outings of 2020.
And while I was admittedly high on the Vikings entering Week 6, Sunday’s one-sided victory for the Falcons doesn’t immediately swap out their stripes. Minnesota was without star RB Dalvin Cook and the Atlanta defense still allowed 23 points in the second half.
The Lions enter Week 7 coming off a much-needed cupcake win over the Jaguars after playing a stiff schedule through the first four games. Detroit rebounded from its blowout loss to Green Bay in Week 2 with three solid efforts and has plenty of positives to build on before Sunday’s showdown in Atlanta.
The ground game has bubbled up as a perfect complement to the Lions’ passing playbook. Grizzled veteran Adrian Peterson and exciting young rookie D’Andre Swift have a “buddy cop movie” feel to this rushing attack, combining for 156 yards and three touchdowns versus Jacksonville.
A repeat of that effort will not only help the Lions chew up the clock and ice Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons’ high-flying passing game, but also make life much easier for quarterback Matt Stafford. A solid ground game keeps Atlanta’s pass rush honest but also adds a new wrinkle in terms of misdirection for an offense that doesn’t use a lot of play-action.
The Falcons are the worst passing defense in the land (335.3 yards per game) and have allowed an NFL-high 29 passing plays of 20-plus yards on the year. A steady stream of runs from Detroit will set up Stafford for those home runs balls.
PREDICTION: Detroit +3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This is currently the highest total on the Week 7 odds board, sitting at 56.5 points. Given the teams involved, a bevy of offensive options and the fact that it’s being played on the fast indoor track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, this number is warranted.
However, we’ve called for a strong effort from the Lions’ rushing game, which should slow scoring, and Detroit hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboards in 2020 either. Sunday’s 34-point outpouring was the Lions’ highest-scoring week of the season, averaging just 24 points in the four games prior.
Both of these defenses sit near the bottom of the barrel in DVOA but are coming off positive efforts in the past few games. The Lions defense looked much better on third downs against the Jaguars, a spot they’ve really struggled in, while the Falcons have given up 23 points in each of their last two games after hemorrhaging a total of 138 points in the opening four games of 2020.
PREDICTION: Under 56.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Lions’ tight end production dwindled a bit in Week 6, with the TEs needed to help shoulder the blocking load for the ground game since the offensive line struggled with the heat and humidity in Jacksonville.
That didn’t stop T.J. Hockenson, however, from finding the end zone for the third time this season. The Detroit TE has caught only four balls the past two games, but two of those were for touchdowns and he faces a Falcons defense that has been torched by tight ends in 2020.
Atlanta has allowed an NFL-high 438 yards and seven touchdowns to the position through six games, including 102 combined yards to Vikings TEs Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith last Sunday. Hockenson could split targets with fellow TE Jessie James, but he’s a healthy return to score another TD as one of Stafford’s favorite red-zone options.
PREDICTION: T.J. Hockenson touchdown scorer (+150)
Lions vs Falcons betting card
- Detroit +3 (-110)
- Under 56.5 (-110)
- T.J. Hockenson touchdown scorer (+150)
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