The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions made headlines last week, with Chicago sticking by much-maligned quarterback Mitchell Trubisky as its starter and Detroit kicking the tires on veteran running back Adrian Peterson.
Those high-profile roster moves will be under the microscope in Week 1 when the Lions host the Bears as 3-point NFL betting favorites. Detroit opened as 1-point home chalk back in the spring and has been an under-the-radar pick to win the NFC North in 2020, drawing action during the offseason.
These are our favorite NFL free picks and predictions for Bears vs. Lions on September 13. **video
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at Ford Field. Be sure to monitor all gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bears: Buster Skrine CB (Probable) David Montgomery RB (Probable), Robert Quinn LB (Out), Khalil Mack LB (Probable), Eddy Pineiro K (Out), Tashaun Gipson DB (Probable), Javon Wims WR (Probable)
Lions: Kenny Golladay WR (Out), Jeff Okudah CB (Out), Danny Amendola WR (Probable), Halapoulivaati Vaitai RT (Out), D'Andre Swift RB (Probable), Da'Shawn Hand DE (Questionable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Bears' last eight games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Lions.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
A healthy Matt Stafford could be all the Lions need to turn the corner in the NFC North. Before going down with a season-ending back injury in Week 9, Stafford was having a great 2019 under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Detroit’s QB was boasting a passer rating of 106.0 with 19 touchdowns to five interceptions in eight games.
The Lions will be very careful with Stafford in this opener, especially against a Chicago defense that remains among the league’s elite. Chicago gave up 6.2 yards per throw and finished ninth versus the passing game in 2019, despite the pass rush struggling to produce pressure with only 32 sacks on the season. The Bears will have that bite back in 2020.
Detroit’s defense was wretched in 2019 and didn’t improve much, with losses of top talents like Darius Slay and Damon Harrison this offseason. The Lions’ stop unit burned bettors throughout the schedule, with the team leading in 13 of its 16 games — but winning just three of those contests and finishing 6-10 ATS.
Chicago’s defense is good enough to steal games, or at least keep them closer than expected. If you do like the Bears, wait for the public to get all worked up over the Trubisky decision and move this spread on the other side of the key number of a field goal (+3.5) closer to kickoff. For now, we’re taking the clean three with Chicago.
PREDICTION: Chicago +3 (-115)
Over/Under pick
Just because Trubisky got the nod, don’t think the leash isn’t already tight on his wayward arm. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and head coach Matt Nagy are looking to jump-start the running game but may not have the services of RB David Montgomery in Week 1.
Nagy is an inventive offensive mind and will utilize handoffs and short tosses involving RB Tarik Cohen, Swiss Army knife Cordarrelle Patterson, and new tight end Jimmy Graham to keep the chains moving and limit Trubisky’s exposure.
Detroit will likely go heavier on the run in Week 1 as well: Stafford’s back is about as brittle as a day-old breadstick and keeping the Bears guessing with a mix of rushers will keep him upright. Chicago’s pass rush is expected to return to 2018 levels with guys like Akiem Hicks healthy, new faces such as Robert Quinn, and the stop unit in Year 2 under defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano.
PREDICTION: Under 44 (-110)
First Quarter Pick
With no preseason to play, due to COVID-19 precautions, Week 1 is the first game-speed reps teams will take in 2020.
With the Bears working in a new OC and slowly allowing Trubisky to dip his toe into the starting job, I expect a very conservative approach – at least in the opening 15 minutes of action. And that’s saying something since Chicago scored a league-low 2.3 points per first quarter in 2019.
And while Detroit was among the best first-quarter producers in the NFC last season (8.7 points per 1Q with Stafford), it runs into one of the best first-quarter stop units. Chicago allowed just 3.3 points in the opening frame and this defense will be looking to attack early and often on Sunday.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 7.5 (-113)
Bears vs Lions betting card
- Chicago +3 (-115)
- Under 44 (-110)
- First quarter Under 7.5 (-113)
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