The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills kick off the NFL betting season for the second straight year and the third time in the past four seasons in Week 1 Sunday.
Buffalo enters the 2020 opener as a 6.5-point home favorite and holds the inside track in the AFC East after Tom Brady took his ball (and tight end) to Tampa. The Bills are at +115 to win the division, just ahead of the Patriots (+135), while the Jets bring up the rear at +850.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jets vs. Bills on September 13. **video
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills betting preview
Weather
Temperatures in the low-70s with a 50 percent chance of rain at kickoff. Winds blowing SW up to 16 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jets: Frank Gore RB (Probable), Avery Williamson LB (Out), Denzel Mims WR (Out), Marcus Maye S (Probable), Breshad Perriman WR (Probable)
Bills: Vernon Butler DT (Out), Josh Norman CB (Out), Levi Wallace CB (Probable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Jets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. the AFC East. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Bills.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Bills are one of the most solid top-to-bottom teams in the NFL, especially with the additions of Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps and rookie RB Zack Moss. Diggs gives the big arm of QB Josh Allen someone to bomb it out to, while Moss provides some needed depth and beef to a rushing attack that ranked eighth in the NFL last season.
New York will need to pick its poison on Sunday, likely leaning on a strong defensive front to limit the ground game. The Jets were a much better defense than the raw stats showed in 2019, but no longer have safety Jamal Adams (traded) or LB C.J. Mosley (opt-out) anchoring the stop unit.
It may take a couple of series before Allen starts to click with his targets, given the lack of a preseason, but the Bills have the horses to put up points and the defense to stop them, making this sub-TD spread an easy task in Week 1.
PREDICTION: Buffalo -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This is the lone sub-40 total on the Week 1 board after opening at 40 points back in May. Often times, those short Over/Unders breed low-scoring results and with the lack of game-speed prep, the Under is tempting.
However, with New York able to stifle the Bills’ rushing attack and keep an eye on Allen, Buffalo is going to go to the air to do damage in Week 1. Diggs is a dangerous deep target but also works as a decoy to peel coverage and open up space for guys like Cole Beasley, John Brown and budding tight end Dawson Knox.
The Jets are dealing with a slew of injuries to their receivers and the offensive line will be tested against the Bills’ mighty defensive front. Entering Year 2 under Adam Gase, Sam Darnold has been getting in and out of the huddle much quicker in practice and that could be the best approach against the Buffalo pass rush: quick throws and a faster pace.
PREDICTION: Over 39.5 (-110)
Player prop bet
Knox has garnered high praise from the Bills staff during training camp, coming off a 2019 rookie season in which he caught 28 of 50 targets for 388 total yards or an average of almost 14 yards per reception.
Knox only found the end zone twice and saw his targets diminish towards the end of the season, but his physical play in training camp and the work he put in with All-Pro TE George Kittle in the offseason could pay off – literally and figuratively.
New York doesn’t have Mosley to match up with tight ends in coverage and his replacement LB Avery Williamson isn’t great in coverage and is coming off an ACL injury that end his 2019 before it even started.
With so many targets drawing the attention of Gang Green’s defense, we like Knox to sneak one in the end zone in Week 1.
PREDICTION: Dawson Knox touchdown anytime (+400)
Jets vs Bills betting card
- Buffalo -6.5 (-110)
- Over 39.5 (-110)
- Dawson Knox touchdown anytime (+400)
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