Saturday’s all-Tiger SEC throwdown between Missouri and LSU has been moved to Columbia, Mo. due to Hurricane Delta, but LSU doesn’t care where they’ll play, and the change of venue may even provide some betting value.
LSU responded after getting upset by Mississippi State, thumping Vanderbilt 41-7 as 21-point road favorites. Now, Ed Orgeron and company will try to carry that momentum over into this week’s matchup against winless Missouri.
Check out our best NCAA football picks and predictions for Missouri vs. LSU, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 10.
Missouri Tigers vs LSU Tigers betting preview
Weather
With the switch in venue and time, this game should avoid most of Hurricane Delta. But there is still a chance for showers throughout the contest and an expected 10 mph wind blowing towards the northeast end zone. Humidity will have temperatures feeling like the low-80s. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Missouri: Jarvis Ware DB (Probable), Sci Martin Jr. DL (Questionable), Darius Robinson DL (Questionable).
LSU: Dare Rosenthal T (Questionable), Glen Logan DE (Questionable), Chris Curry RB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Missouri doesn’t really bounce back offensively after losses and as a result, the Under is 8-0 in its last eight games following a defeat. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Missouri vs. LSU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The change in venue for this game has caused quite a line shift. Prior to the move, LSU was roughly a 20-point home favorite, but now oddsmakers have re-opened the line at LSU -14. But is the new location worth all those points?
LSU looked much better in its second game, as QB Myles Brennan went 23-of-37 for 337 yards, throwing for four touchdowns with one pick. Meanwhile, it was sophomore John Emery Jr. who shone in the run game, rumbling for 103 yards and a score against Vandy.
That type of balance has given the Missouri defense problems in its first two games against Alabama and Tennessee, resulting in the Tigers allowing 418 yards and 36.5 points per game so far this season. And the Tigers have a whole different set of issues on offense (more on that in a bit), making it hard to envision them keeping up with LSU in this one.
Moving from a mostly empty Death Valley to a mostly empty Faurot Field should not be worth six points. We probably would have taken them at the bigger number at home, so bet the Bayou Bengals to win by a couple of touchdowns.
PREDICTION: LSU -14 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The LSU defense got shredded by Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense in its opener, but rebounded nicely against Vandy, limiting them to 113 passing yards and just 3.6 yards per carry. Now, Mizzou should pose a little more of a challenge, but they’ll have to show some big improvements in the passing game if they want to keep this one competitive.
Sophomore QB Connor Bazelak has struggled to this point, completing just 57 percent of his passes for a total of 286 yards with no touchdowns and one pick. That has allowed defenses to focus on RB Larry Rountree, and even though LSU had some issues against Mississippi State, an offense that is one dimensional like Mizzou’s will have issues getting anything rolling against LSU’s talent.
Even if Missouri is able to put up 14 points or so in this one, it shouldn’t be enough to send this game Over the number.
PREDICTION: Under 55 (-110)
First Quarter Spread Pick
Even in the defeat to Mississippi State, LSU still showed it has the ability to be a quick-strike offense this season. Brennan already has five touchdown passes of 25 yards or more and has four pass-catchers averaging 16.7 yards per reception or more so far this season.
Meanwhile, Missouri has been outscored 21-0 through its first two games this season. Take LSU to come out firing and cover the first quarter spread.
PREDICTION: LSU -3.5 (Odds)
Missouri vs LSU betting card
- LSU -14 (-110)
- Under 55 (-110)
- LSU -3.5 First Quarter Spread (-110)
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